[00:00:00] Announcer: Due to the themes of this podcast, listener discretion is advised. Lock your doors. Close the blinds. Change your passwords. This is Secrets and Spies. Secrets and Spies is a podcast that dives into the world of espionage, terrorism, geopolitics, and intrigue. This podcast is produced and hosted by Chris Carr. [00:01:04] Chris Carr: On today's podcast, I'm joined by Dr. Taras Kuzio, and on this episode he joins me from Ukraine and we discuss his thoughts on the ongoing peace process and the situation on the ground. Hope you find this episode interesting. Thank you for watching, and thank you for listening. Take care. [00:01:21] Announcer: The opinions expressed by guests on Secrets and Spies do not necessarily represent those of the producers and sponsors of this podcast. [00:01:44] Chris: Dr. Taras Kuzio, welcome back to the podcast. So, you're in Ukraine as we speak. So, what have you experienced since you've been there? [00:01:52] Dr. Taras Kuzio: Well, there's a kind of a strange disconnect between how my wife and how most people, I think, um, envisage, uh, a war situation because, um, there is a kind of an assumption that it's, uh, unsafe, that, that people are hiding, that things are not normal. In fact, the exact opposite, I mean, the -- again, surprisingly, after three years of war, there is not a single building in the center of Kyiv that's been hit. Um, so why are the Russians not trying to, uh, hit the Ukrainian government buildings, which are in the center of town? Um, strange. Um, in a normal, if you can call it a normal war, you would expect that kind of thing. So, there's not a single building, I've seen, in the center of Kyiv that's, um, in some ways damaged or ruined. People are, you know, there are traffic jams. People are going about their own work. Uh, next door to me is a school, people are going to school. Um, people are going out in the evenings. Uh, there's no sense of any foreboding. Um, and when you do occasionally hear, uh, air raid sirens, which are usually sort of, kind of in the night or early morning, uh, I'm not sure everybody rushes to the air raid shelter. Um, I think they get a bit fed up of, uh, doing that, especially with children. So, they probably, um, lock themselves in their bathrooms, which apparently is the safest place to be in, in your, in your apartment. Um, but I mean, they don't last very long, the air raid sirens, they -- literally less than five minutes. So, I'm guessing that the Ukraine air defense have had some, had success in knocking them down, which it seems to be the case. Um, there's gonna be a lot of Ukrainians going around Western Europe, uh, training, uh, training Europeans, how to deal with a potential future Russian invasion, I think. [00:03:58] Chris: Yes, indeed, indeed. [00:03:59] Dr. Kuzio: Because, uh, um, as far as I, as you've had on one of your previous podcasts, um, I don't think Britain even has any air defense, so-- [00:04:07] Chris: No, we need to work on that. [00:04:09] Dr. Kuzio: We need to work on that. Well, um, yes. Um, so beyond that, um, the, the, probably not everybody's, you know, probably Kyiv isn't as full as it was prior to the full-scale invasion, obviously there are people abroad, but at the same time the city's filled up with refugees and IDPs from, from the East. So, I'm not sure what the actual population size is. I mean, um, the traffic jams here were notorious, but they're not as bad as they used to be. So maybe there are fewer people around, but I suspect a lot of people will have done is that they felt it more secure to live in their country dachas just outside Kyiv, rather than the center of town. [00:04:52] Chris: Yeah, I could understand that logic, because you would think it'd be major cities that would be hit, not small places. [00:04:57] Dr. Kuzio: Yeah, yeah, yeah. And um, I, I think the worst brunt of it is always, of course, the, uh, places along the Russian border. Um, and surprise, surprise, it's no surprise that Putin's attacks are actually hurting those Russian speakers who he claims he's invaded to protect. He's, he's hurting those people the most. [00:05:20] Chris: Yeah, it doesn't surprise me with Putin. [00:05:22] Dr. Kuzio: I was in Western Ukraine, and there's haven't been any attacks there for a few years, and as they used to come from Belarus because it's, I guess, too far to come from Russia to West Ukraine. Um, and I, and I'm suspecting that somebody's leaned on Lukashenko, whether it's Ukrainians or the West, to not allow Belarus territory to be used for these attacks because they seem to what only have happened at the beginning of the war. [00:05:49] Chris: And sort of what is, you were saying, there isn't really a sense of foreboding in Kyiv. So, what is the sort of general mood at the moment? [00:05:56] Dr. Kuzio: Well, the general mood would be, of course, uh, betrayal. [00:05:58] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:05:59] Dr. Kuzio: Betrayal and anger with the, with with America, I mean, um, with the United States, with Trump. I mean, this -- I mean, you know, it's a mixture of, uh, betrayal and, and amongst the general population, but amongst experts, um, and people who know the kind of the feel we're talking about, they were they just dumbfounded at, um, how ignorant, um, are the Trump is, President Trump and the Trump team. To give you one example, and Trump even yesterday -- uh, this would've been, uh, so Tuesday -- um, said that Zelensky is about to agree, um, the peace plan's going ahead. Zelensky is about to agree to recognize Crimea as Russian. This is complete codswallop, it's simply not true. Um, I don't know what world he's living in. And I'll tell you, and the reasons why is obviously the Trump team have not looked at Ukraine's constitution. If President Zelensky said, "Yes, I will legally recognize Crimea as Russian," Parliament will immediately begin impeachment proceedings. [00:07:11] Chris: Mm. [00:07:12] Dr. Kuzio: Um, and, and, um, because that would be unconstitutional. The Constitutional Court would rule against him. And anyway, according to the Ukrainian Constitution, you need to hold a referendum if you are changing the territorial integrity of the country, but you can't hold a referendum under martial law. So, so, so, um, so I don't know where he's coming from. I mean, presumably Trump doesn't care about laws domestic or foreign, and so he thinks that, you know, Zelensky, like him, can just abuse the law. But that doesn't work like that. Um, so I think there's, there's that kind of in incredulity of how ignorant, um, the Trump team are, not only about this Crimean demand, but also just generally they just simply don't understand the roots of the war. Um, which is a phrase that Russia always uses. Um, and they, and, and their approach to the war completely nullifies Trump's claim that he's the best negotiator in the world. He's in fact, the worst negotiator in the world, um, because, uh, he's been applying sticks to Ukraine and carrots to Russia. And, and the, and the idea that somehow you can get Russia and, and Putin to reduce or moderate their maximalist demands by not applying any pressure on them is simply ludicrous, of course. And that's not the case. And that's what's, in fact, happened. So, the pressure is all on Ukraine. Um, I think there's a, from an analytical community perspective, there's another interesting angle here, which is, I thought had been dealt with three years ago, but at the beginning of the war, um, in February '22, most Western experts, in particularly like the Pentagon and the think tanks around Washington, um, the so-called "Beltway Bandits," um, they, they were all a hundred-percent convinced that Ukraine would not survive, that Ukraine would be quickly defeated. This was the general, policymakers, think tank experts, et cetera. Now, of course, most of them were Russianists, they weren't Ukraineists. But so they exaggerated the power of Russia, they believed in the the, in the myth that Russia's army was the second-best in the world, they underestimated Ukraine's ability to withstand Russian attacks, and that, that led actually to the West only beginning to supply hardware, uh, like, uh, heavy military hardware from April of '22 because they waited the first two months to see if Ukraine would, would, would fend off and defeat the Russians in the Kyiv area, and they began withdrawing in late March. What do we see today? Trump repeating the same stuff that Ukraine has no chance. "Why did you start a war with a big country?" Well, obviously Ukraine didn't start the war. Um, and Ukraine is gonna gonna be, you know, destroyed and removed from the map if it, if it doesn't sign this peace agreement, uh, because Russia's so powerful. So, there seems to be this, still in Washington, this kind of illusion that Russia is still the Soviet Union, it's this all-powerful country, despite all the evidence of the last three years, which says the opposite. It's simply not true. I mean, there are videos on social media of Russian soldiers on crutches going to battle -- of using scooters, golf carts, because there are no tanks and armored personnel carriers left. How is this the second-best army in the world? This is a, this is a fake great power. Um, Russia is pleading with countries much smaller, like North Korea and Iran, for weapons. How is this a great power? I mean, since when do you find a great, do you define a great power, which would do that? But that kind of illusion that Ukraine has no chance and Russia is all powerful, obviously dominates the Trump team, and that's one illusion. I think the second illusion is that they artificially separate, um, China from Russia. So, the, the, the argument is that we need to get this Russia war over and done with quickly because we need to focus on China in the East. Well, I'm sorry guys, but you've missed the boat, or as Ukrainians say, the train's left the station. The Chinese and North Koreans are already in Europe. Um, and, um, they've been, obviously Chinese soldiers have been captured by Ukrainians. [00:11:55] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:11:56] Dr. Kuzio: Uh, of course the China, China says officially that these are mercenaries. They're not. I'm, I'm, I'm a bit skeptical. But the North Koreans, as of this week, have officially, the Russians have officially declared, Yes, that, that, there's a, a military coalition and the North Koreans are fighting. So, for the first time this week on Russian television, um, they are admitting that the North Koreans are, are fighting, uh, with the Russians. Um, so this, uh, coalition, this anti-Western axis, whatever you want to call it, of China, North Korea, Iran, Russia exists. And if you think you can go back to the late-70s and repeat Richard Nixon's ploy of separating China and Russia, you're living in, again, cloud cuckoo land. [00:12:40] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:12:40] Dr. Kuzio: Um, it's a different world today. Um, what Nixon did was just a decade after China and the USSR had a war. Um, and, and, and, and today they are united on a platform of anti-Americanism, the rise of China as a great power and, um, also, um, this demand to replace a so-called unipolar with a multipolar world. So, um, again, that's another illusion that somehow you can separate these, these conflicts. You can't, because if, um, uh, appeasement on Ukraine, um, means that you open up a Pandora's box. And there's no coincidence that the Europeans -- uh, and of course now the West Europeans seem to be more aligned with the views of the East Europeans, which is a new phenomena -- um, the, the Europeans understand that and that's why they are backing, uh, Ukraine's position. And that's why they are also, uh, against the legal recognition of Crimea as a Russian because they know today, Crimea, tomorrow, Estonia's region of Narva. The next following date's Taiwan. I mean, you know, you open up the the Pandora's box for every tinpot dictator around the world to say, "Well, what's good for them is good for me." Um, so, um, I, I think that is, um, is, is simply I think, uh, misunderstood. Um, I think the question mark we have to, um, uh, ask ourselves, um, is this transatlantic relationship still there? Because there's obviously a completely different approach by the Europeans, which have the, which agree with the Ukrainian position and the, and the Trump administration. These are two different approaches to this war. Trump seems to find it impossible to criticize Russia and to blame Russia for starting the war. He's actually blamed Ukraine for it. Um, so I mean, I mean, I, I understand diplomats, one, can't publicly say what they may be privately believe. And, uh, and, and, and, and it's probably difficult for the British, British, uh, ruling elites of foreign policy and defense elites to admit that they are no longer the bridge between America and Europe. Um, but, um, I, I, I think, I think those days are gone. I mean, I could be wrong, but I think those days are gone. I mean, obviously the, the Americans are pushing and pushing, and they're saying there's only about a week left before either an agreement is signed or we pull out. But we'll see, we'll see. Um, if they pull out, this will be written about as the worst negotiating, um, strategy ever. Um, because, uh, you don't give away your potential, uh, points that you could negotiate with and trade with during talks, like, for example, Ukraine's NATO membership. They basically gave away everything before they even started talking. [00:15:53] Chris: Mm-hmm. Let's take a quick break and be right back with more. Couple of things: You mentioned, obviously, that sense of portrayal earlier. There was a lot of, I, I equate it a little bit to Taliban 2.0, if you remember that talk, um, during the Afghan pullout and people were like, "Oh, well, maybe the new Taliban won't be as bad as the last." And I felt that with Trump. In the buildup to the Trump administration and then during the elections, there was a lot of, um, talk in, think tanks, et cetera, at about that Trump won't be that bad, Trump might be better for Ukraine. I mean, I, I've been on this podcast watching all this unfold. I don't hold myself as an expert, but I'm definitely an observer, and just looking at Trump 1.0, I always thought this guy would be, to put it bluntly, a clusterfuck. And he, quite frankly is, and I'm just surprised that there was so much optimism about Trump 2.0 because I, I just think that this is a total disaster that's unfolding in front of us. As you say, he appeases Russia constantly. I don't know exactly the reasons to why he constantly appeases Russia, I think it's because he's in love with Putin in some description, or Putinism. Um, and, and I just, I just don't understand why there was that optimism and, and now it's obviously changed. [00:17:19] Dr. Kuzio: I, I suspect it's because Trump 1 wasn't so bad. [00:17:23] Chris: Was that just because of incompetence though? [00:17:25] Dr. Kuzio: No, no, no, no. I think, um, Trump 1 had adults in the room with him. Um, there were quite a lot of good people around Trump, um, especially in the military and security sphere. Of course, there was a high turnover of staff. Um, but nevertheless, there were decent people in the room. Today, um, it's a, it's a different Trump. Um, it's a different ball game. Um, he's, I think, deteriorated, uh, in his faculties, I think. Um, you know, he changes his mind more times than we change our socks in a day. Um, and he can't remember stuff he's agreed before or signed. I mean, he, he said that the trade agreement with Canada was the worst agreement out. When he signed it in 2018, he said the opposite, it was the best agreement out. So, this kind of thing makes this erratic, erratic approach, chaotic approach is probably relatively new, and that's maybe his age. Um, and, um, his inability to kind of deal with all these complex issues because I think he's a bit of a micromanager. You know, he's a, he's a bit like Putin. You don't bring bad news to Trump. Um, you have to sort of keep stroking him like a nice furry cat. Um, and um, so I think there's those factors. Why his, um, pro-, his pro-Russianism is so obvious in these negotiations. I mean, I don't think it's what the many Democrats keep pushing that he is been a long-term Russian agent. I think that's a bit going, stretching it a bit too far. Useful idiot? Yes, but in the sense that he's put, Trump is convinced that Putin respects him. Which is, which is not true. I mean, um, I watch Russian TV occasionally, I read Russian media. Um, they laugh at him, they don't respect him. But he's convinced the opposite, um, that, you know, they didn't respect Biden, but they respect me. Um, and of course, Putin and his gang who, were trained KGB operators in this kind of field of work, um, are laughing here and they're, and they're, and they're enjoying it. Um, there's also, um -- and this is, I think the same with the Chinese, the Chinese are laughing. Um, I mean, there's so many videos the Chinese are posting about where they're just simply laughing at Trump. I mean, did you see the one where, um, they laughed at the, the, the White House spokesperson wearing a Chinese dress? She was attacking China and then they, they did a video clip, "Well, this is actually a, a dress from China. It cost 30 bucks." So, she bought a cheap Chinese dress and she's the White House spokesman. So, there you are. Um, but the Chinese are kind of, you know, um, following these things as well. I, I think there's a lot of irrationality, um, because, which is difficult to explain from political science or international relations and it's more in the realm of psychology, I think. For example, on the negotiations, um, surely if you wanna get both of them to, so that, agree to something, you need to apply pressure to both. Um, you need to realize that the Russians' side Beseda had very maximalist positions since the Istanbul talks of the spring of '22. You need to moderate those, get them sort of closer to the middle as it were. They'll never get to the middle, but closer to the middle. Yes, apply pressure to the Ukrainians, but the Ukrainians are more willing to be, a, agree to that pressure. And then you might get something, but instead, he just hit, use a stick against the Ukrainians and never wants to apply pressure on Russians. So, why are you, why are we surprised there's a mess now? On the sanction, on the tariffs -- what he calls tariffs -- again, it doesn't make sense what his approach is because experts will tell you that China had it coming. Uh, China has been infringing WTO, uh, regulations and decisions for years, um, and ignoring them. Um, and ignoring these, uh, so what did Trump do? Instead of saying to the Canadians and the Europeans, "Look, we've got a problem with China. Let's work together to try and get the Chinese to finally come round and accept the rules of the game." Instead, he, he has an argument with everybody, America's on its own, and the Chinese are laughing all the way. And the Chinese are now portraying themselves as the guardians of international free trade. [00:22:09] Chris: Yeah, yeah. I honestly, I don't think Trump is fit for office anymore, he really isn't. Um, this alienating and attacking allies, you know, and I think if he does go through with his, uh, uh, talked about plans of Greenland, which some people feel is unlikely, but I feel like we live in an unlikely world now. Um, if he does go through with doing something stupid with Greenland, that's gonna end NATO most likely. [00:22:33] Dr. Kuzio: Well, it, it's -- I think NATO's on, its on its kind, it's difficult to see what's gonna happen, but yes. I mean, um, I lived, uh, 15 years in, in Canada, in Toronto, and, uh, my wife's a Canadian citizen and she rushed to vote yesterday, uh, by, by postal vote a week ago. Um, a lot of my Ukrainian friends in Toronto voted Liberal for the first time in their lives because, because, uh, obviously voting Liberal in yesterday's Canadian elections was a big, you know, a big finger to, uh, to Trump. Um, I mean, Trump has managed to revive the Liberals from their deathbed, as it were. [00:23:16] Chris: Yes, he did. [00:23:17] Dr. Kuzio: I mean, on the NATO question, I think, um, I think, uh, I, I'd be surprised if the Americans kind of invaded, uh Greenland or something. That's more likely, in the traditional American way of Central America, Panama, maybe, rather than Greenland. But at the same time, I think, uh, NATO has, uh, a, a major issue coming up and that's Ukraine. Um, in June, uh, the new general secretary, Mark Rutte, um, will have his first summit in the Hague -- where we lived in Holland, as well, for five years. And, um, this year's resolution has to deal with the question of Ukraine. Every resolution that, every year's resolution, that every NATO summit since 2008 has had an open-door policy saying, Ukraine's membership will be in the future. Now, I now have come to realize that this was never gonna happen, but nevertheless, this could be the first summit resolution where there's no mention of an open-door policy, and what does this translate into? De facto, NATO is saying Russia has a veto over Ukraine's membership of NATO. So, I mean, that is a, that already is a big crisis because the Europeans back Ukraine on this question. Um, it's the Americans pushing this and America did have a German ally in Scholz before, um, against Ukraine's membership, but the new Christian Democratic chancellor does not, uh, align himself with the Americans on this. So, I think that's gonna be a major, uh, kind of split question. I mean, of course diplomats are great at conjuring up words to, to cover these kind of things up, but I don't, I think there's a lot, a lot of disappointment in Ukraine in the sense of that people think that they've been lied to for 17 years. I mean, and the, I think historians will write about this as a terrible policy because what you in effect did, you said, "Yes, Ukraine will be a future member," without ever intending that to happen, which then opened the door up for the Russians to say, "Right, we're gonna go after you because you are gonna join NATO," even though it was never gonna happen. So, you actually got the worst of both worlds. You were never gonna be a member, and then the Russians were gonna use that as a, an excuse to hammer you on the head. Um, and um, so I, I think that is a, is a major fault, fault area because I think one of the scenarios that was floated a few months ago was this kind of West German, East German scenario where unoccupied Ukraine would join NATO and occupied Ukraine would be out. So, the analogy would be West Germany joined NATO in 19, I think, 50 or early '50s, and East Germany continued to remain under Russian occupation. Um, and then, and then, of course, in 1990, both, both Germanys, uh, united. Um, that would've been potentially one of the scenarios, but of course that was probably, uh, vetoed by Trump and that, that that idea. So, I'm not sure, um, whether we can use the old analogy of NATO's, uh, raison d'être as -- was it, "Keeping the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down." It's probably gonna change now. [00:26:43] Chris: Yeah, yeah, definitely. I mean, what is, what is the way forward? Because obviously at the moment, the Trump administration are kind of indicating their bored now of peace negotiations. And if it doesn't go their way and make Trump look good, they're gonna move on, which I think might happen, I hope not, but I think that they're gonna probably pull outta these negotiations. Um, so what, what happens if that, if the US do pull out negotiations, what happens next? [00:27:08] Dr. Kuzio: Good question. I personally don't think that, um, they are likely to fully pull out because this would be really embarrassing for Trump. I mean, he's desperate to get this Noble Peace prize or whatever he, he wants, that desperate to be, you know, on the front page of Time magazine as a peacemaker. Um, I'd be surprised if they did that. Uh, it would be a, it would be a signal that they, it was defeat. Um, so, but at the same time, um, the only way forward in this is for the US to move more to the European position that, yes, we can accept a freezing of the conflict where Crimea and the four other Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson are de facto recognized as under Russian control, but not de jure. Now, the Russians keep demanding de jure. Um, the Americans are just saying de jure Crimea and not the other areas. Um, but there's no way Ukraine, there's no way Zelensky can constitutionally agree to that, and there's no way the Europeans want that because as I say, it opens up the Pandora's box, especially for the Baltic states and, and, um, you know, Suwałki Gap, uh, the eastern parts of Estonia, Latvian, Lithuania. So, um, I think that's the only way forward. Whether the Americans will, will, will shift their hard line is unclear because I think what we have is Trump sticking to a position on Crimea, which he's had for quite a while. In Trump 1, he also said at that time that Crimea was Russian, even though in 2018, Secretary of State Pompeo issued a declaration saying, actually Crimea, we will never recognize Crimea as Russian. So, so there was already a contradiction there, but Trump's policy today undermines and is contrary to Pompeo's 2018 declaration. It's also contrary to what Mark Rubio and brought together in 2022. He brought together , uh, Republican and Democratic senators who also issued a statement say, We will never recognize any part of Ukraine as Russian territory. So, this is kind of going in the, going in the face of a lot of previous history as it were. Um, I, I, I, I'm, I think that is the only way forward. I mean, I think that, um, if, if there isn't some kind of peace agreement, then we are on a, a track of, uh, Ukraine and Europe, uh, being -- by Europe, meaning EU, Britain, Norway -- uh, being left alone to fight, uh, Russia. And, um, I don't think the situation is as dire as the Trump team, um, talk about, but we can maybe talk about that separately. Um, the, uh, you know, Western military experts who know the battlefield say that last year was actually more dangerous for Ukraine than this year. Situation's actually stable, stabilized quite well. [00:30:26] Chris: Mm-mm. Well, yeah, I think, I mean -- well here's here, here's a big question, I suppose. Why is Crimea so important to Russia? Because I think that seems to have been missed by a lot of people over the years. [00:30:37] Dr. Kuzio: It's a, it's a bit like, um, for Serbs, uh, Kosovo. The same kind of thing. It's their kind of Jerusalem. There's a lot of mythology surrounding it. Um, in the case of Crimea, uh, in the case of Serbia, there was some, uh, major battle in the 14th century. Uh, a bit like our Battle of Boyne in Northern Ireland. Um, and in the case of Crimea, it's the Crimean War of the 19th century, and then, uh, World War II, um, as well with Sebastapol siege with the Nazis. So, I, I, it, it, it, there's a lot of mythology surrounding it, even though the Black Sea Fleet is not one of the most important fleets of the Russian Navy. Um, I think the, the Baltic, Baltic Russian fleet is far more important. Um, so I, it's more to do with historical myths, um, and also to do with this Russian nationalist mythology surrounding South and Eastern Ukraine, that this was, um, this is the new promised land, the New Russia. Um, it's the kind of, uh, area that, um, uh, Tsarina Catherine expanded into in the late 18th century and declared it New Russia. Um, and Putin has been talking about this region since 2008, um, at, at the Bucharest NATO summit, and especially from 2014, so it's not really, it's not a new thing that he's raised. But it's to do with historical myths and that's in turn linked to nationalism and, and Russian, uh, Putin's Russia kind of retreating back to pre-Soviet imperial tsarist kind of mythology. [00:32:25] Chris: And there's a section of the Russian hard-right, who don't wanna see any peace negotiations at all, which obviously is, um, something, I suppose Putin has to factor into his own political survival as well. [00:32:37] Dr. Kuzio: Well, Putin has to factor in that. Um, but he also has to factor in the fact that there's a huge number of veterans. Um, many of whom are ex-convicts. He, he emptied the prisons. Um, and these convicts are already causing problems. You know, the ones who survive and go back, they're already create, creating crime and murder as they go back. But you're talking about millions of veterans. Um, uh, are they gonna have jobs? Um, are they gonna revert to crime? And the analogy for that is the 1990s, because you had a lot of Afghan veterans, um, and, um, in Russia. And these, uh, veterans from Afghanistan were kind of very angry that there was no jobs or there was nothing for them, and many of them, if not most of them, went into organized crime. They became the hitmen of, of, of the 1990s organized crime. So, that is a major potential, um, problem and, and all of the instability surrounding that, the very fact that Russia's economy and financial system cannot go on indefinite in the way it is. There's an article in this week's Economist about this that Russia's um, um, financial situation looks quite dire. Um, I know people have been saying this for a while, but, but the idea in, the sum reason the Trump team think that, you know, as they said to Zelensky during that big spat in the Oval Office, that, that, that Ukraine doesn't have the cards. Well, neither does Russia. Um, and, um, because Russia can only really continue as it's as, as it is now this year and maybe a portion of next year. I mean, by next month, May, uh, there will have been one million Russian casualties, and I just can't envisage that this high level of casualties, which is about 1,000, an average of 1,300 a day, 40,000 a month, can continue indefinitely. They already are not recruiting enough through mobilization -- uh, sorry, not mobilization -- voluntary recruitment each month to cover the 40,000 casualties. So, they're getting maybe 30,000 or 25,000. The, the equipment situation is dire. Um, hence they're using, uh, uh, scooters and golf carts. Um, so, so I, I think that, um, this all, all, will, all, will, will, will factor in, in, into the equation here. Um, and it doesn't look so bad from the Ukrainian side, as many often portray it. [00:35:26] Chris: Mm, yeah. Is there a sense that Russia are holding back some of their more elite forces that they could use later on? Because I know you've got, you've got forces in Africa at the moment, sort of Russian mercenaries, or who used to be the Wagner Group and are now officially part of Russian forces and things. [00:35:42] Dr. Kuzio: I don't think so because many of the elite forces, like the Marines and Airborne, were decimated at the beginning. Um, and the what the Russians called special forces, which is a very, a far broader definition than what we call them in the West, um, and they've been decimated. And the ones in Africa won't be large in number anyway. Um, and these are, these are not -- they, they're probably professional mercenaries -- but when they're, when they're up against professional soldiers, like for example, when, in Syria, when the Americans killed about 300 of them, um, they're not, they're not super good, um, at fighting. So I don't, even if they brought those back, I mean, I, I, I'd be surprised. I mean, I think they're gonna be kept in Africa because, um, obviously that's a good lucrative source of, of corruption and, and money. Um, the Russia, probably Putin's gonna be more likely to rely on an increasing numbers of North Koreans. Um, what is, you know, surprisingly, uh, unclear, you know, we keep to a, asking these questions, what's ir, "Why is there so much irrationality?" is the South Koreans have, have protested at this now open admission, um, that, that North Korea is fighting on Russia's side because that was always hidden until this week. [00:37:08] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:37:08] Dr. Kuzio: South Koreans are protested about this. Well, that's great, but you should realize, or maybe South Korean intelligence doesn't realize, that the North Koreans, what are they doing? They're training and getting battle combat experience, which eventually will be used against South Korea. So, why are the South Koreans reluctant or unwilling to sell Ukraine weapons? [00:37:33] Chris: Mm. [00:37:34] Dr. Kuzio: Why are they staying absent from the fray? I mean, it doesn't make, that doesn't make any sense at all. Yes, you can say, "Oh, well, in the constitution we can't sell weapons to countries at war." But hold on, this is an extreme situation. I'm sure you can, you can, um, introduce, you know, changes to the Constitution when there's an extreme threat to your national security. And the North Koreans, that's what they're doing, they're preparing for a future war. Um, they, they haven't had combat experience since the '50s. They're now getting it modern combat experience, which the South Koreans don't have. [00:38:09] Chris: No. [00:38:09] Dr. Kuzio: And, and they're getting it in Ukraine. Um, and they're gonna bring that back to North Korea for, for the, for the next potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula. [00:38:18] Chris: Yeah. I mean, God, what would happen if South Korea sent troops to Ukraine? [00:38:23] Dr. Kuzio: Well, I mean, you know, that's unlikely. But they, they could do other things, surely. I mean, you know, and, you know, maybe there are things they're doing, we don't know about, but, but they've refused to, um, sell weapons and, um, and so has Trump, by the way, I mean, Trump has held back -- uh, Zelensky refused, Zelensky asked Trump to purchase, uh, Patriots, and Trump refused. So, business is not important, um, there. Um, and, um, Trump is apparently trying to block the passage, the transfer of, um, old Abrams infantry fighting vehicles from Australia to Ukraine. Um, there's one other kind of irrational aspect of this, which we haven't mentioned -- which again, there's a lot of irrationality -- um, is this critical minerals deal. Um-- [00:39:16] Chris: Yeah, what's happening with that? [00:39:18] Dr. Kuzio: Well, it's probably gonna be -- oh, well, I presume it's gonna be signed together with a peace agreement, but if there's no peace agreement, I, I, I can't see the Ukrainians signing that if Trump still stands on the position of recognizing Crimea as legally Russian. But, but, but what's important to understand about this critical minerals agreement, it's, it's like a fake document. Um, every expert in this field will tell you that, uh, the finding of investment, the bringing of investment to these mineral deposits, the extraction process, getting out of the ground and eventually getting profits is gonna take a minimum of 10 years. [00:40:01] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:40:02] Dr. Kuzio: So, Donald Trump might not even be in this, on this planet. He might not even be still alive when this happens. Um, so this has gotten, you know, it -- he certainly won't be president, even if he goes for a third term. Um, so this agreement is purely for him to wave in front of MAGA and say, look, we didn't give all that military aid for free, we got something back in return, even though it's completely fake. Um, um, it's another one of these things that doesn't really make much sense except for a propaganda thing to say, you know, Trump can wave it around and say, look, I've been successful. [00:40:44] Chris: Yeah, indeed. What do you make of, um, Trump and Putin's relations at the moment? because obviously, um, post, uh, meeting with Zelensky at the Pope's funeral, Trump has been a little bit more openly, very little, but openly sort of challenging Putin a little bit on, on Truth Social. [00:41:01] Dr. Kuzio: I don't think that these -- you know, there's been about three or four occasions where he's challenged or complained about Putin. I don't think anybody takes them very seriously because there's no consequences, there's no kind of follow up, um, of, you know, trying to get Putin to ameliorate his position. The Russian position keeps getting repeated by Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, as the hard-line position. It has not changed in any way from the spring of '22. Um, so, um, I, I just don't think that, um, there's for, for some unknown reason, the Trump team don't want to, or don't think there's a need to, to apply pressure on Russia to moderate its demands. Um, why, why that is, it's simply impossible to understand because, um, the, the relationship there -- I mean, well, let's remember, they had a nearly two-hour telephone conversation, which was the longest telephone conversation between US and Russian leaders ever. What they talked about, God knows, um, but, um, but Witkoff's visits to Moscow, um, uh, resemble a bit of a love fest. [00:42:26] Chris: Yeah, yeah. [00:42:27] Dr. Kuzio: I mean there's, there's also, that's a bit of a strange thing because he's obviously got no experience in this field. He couldn't even name the four Ukrainian provinces, he didn't even know the names of them, and he's willing to say, to pass, he claimed that the referendum held there by Russia in September '22 was a, what showed that the people wanted to join Russia. Nobody recognizes fake referendum. Um, and, um, I mean, I think for me is what's interesting is, uh, his background because he's, um, of, um, he's got similar background to, um, many of the voters that back the Israeli prime minister -- Russian Jewish, uh, voters and they seem to be have a very pro-Putin, very right-wing, anti-Arab, uh, in the case of Israel, uh, stance. And I've always been wondering, again, not just South Korea, but why has Israel continuously opposed assisting and working militarily with Ukraine? Israel and Ukraine both have Jewish leaders and they both have the same enemies. Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth, and Russia wants to wipe Ukraine off the face of the Earth. Iran and Russia are military allies, so it would seem logical that Ukraine and Israel would be allies. That's not the case. Netanyahu, and you can find this on the internet, um, in previous elections, he would have billboards with him hugging Putin. Um, the arguments given to me were always, this is a consequence of Russia being in Syria. Netanyahu didn't want to inflame relations with Russia because Russia was militarily there and backing Assad. But I always thought that was wrong, that's not true. And I think that was right because Asad has been deposed and, uh, and the position of Netanyahu hasn't changed. And then, so the other reason for Netanyahu's, kind of pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian position is that a lot of his voters are these Jews who have immigrated from Russia and they hold these quite hard-line, right-wing views, populist, nationalist views. Um, and, um, they, um, they probably watch a lot of Russian TV, Russian state TV, so they're quite pro-Putin and Witkoff kind of comes from that community of people. Um, and you see that in his kind of pro-Russianism as well. So, he is, he wasn't the right person for, for, for obviously these, these negotiations, not only because he wasn't experienced, but he was from, he already came with a bias. [00:45:14] Chris: Yeah, yeah. And I've always been interested in that relationship with the American Right and this love fest for Putin as well, and this sort of, the ticket Trump came in on. [00:45:22] Dr. Kuzio: Well, it's a strange, um, love fest between the American Right and the, and Russia for two reasons. Firstly, many of the, um, and, and the MAGA crowd are evangelicals, including the, uh, the chair of the, the US Congress, uh, the House of Representatives. Um, he's a, he's a, a deeply devout evangelical. Well, why do then, do they not support Ukraine? In Russian-occupied Ukraine, the Russian security forces and the Russian Orthodox Church are destroying and repressing and sometimes killing other churches, including Protestants, including evangelicals. Um, the, the only church allowed is the Russian Orthodox Church. The Ukrainian Orthodox, Ukraine Catholic, and Ukrainian Protestant churches are, are, are banned and repressed, just as they are in Russia. Um, in Russia, Jehovah's Witnesses and other evangelical confessions are banned, so that is also strange that, uh, the American kind of, uh, nationalist or populist right has this love fest with Russia. Another reason is that Russians are not very religious. You can find opinion polls on the internet, which will show you that not many Russians go to church. Um, it's about 17%. I saw, uh, and a poll by the Pew Associates, um, maybe a year ago, of about 17% of Russians go to church on a regular basis, which is about the same average in Europe. In Ukraine, it's double. 35%. And, and that's the same, same level as you have in the United States. So, Russians are not, you know, even though Putin declares that Russia is the protector of conservative, traditional religious values, this is again, not true. It's a myth. Um, Russia has tremendous social problems, very high abortion levels, very high, um, divorces, alcoholism. So, the idea that Russia's this beacon of traditional Christian values is simply not, not, not the case. [00:47:31] Chris: Let's take a quick break and be right back with more. So, I was going to invite you for any sort of final thoughts, if you have, if there's anything you'd like to share before we part. [00:47:54] Dr. Kuzio: Well, I, I think that we, um, there's, it's good that there's been, um, greater talk about potential ending the war. Um, and it's not surprising in many ways that, um, there's gonna be different views as to how to do that. Um, but I, um, we, we've already said that, um, that Trump approach hasn't really got us to that final destination. Um, it's good that the Europeans have the same position as Ukrainians on this. There's no disconnect there. Um, it, the, the Trump demand to recognize Crimea as Russian is simply going against, you know, decades of US policy, um, on supporting the sanctity of the territorial integrity of states. Um, and that is, I think a no-no, both for Ukraine and Europe. Um, on the war -- um, the war may continue in various forms. Um, if, if some kind of peace deal is not, um, uh, signed. I'd be very surprised if Trump completely walks away because that would be too embarrassing for his ego, which of course for him is everything, um, and for his kind of reputation. This is the guy who did say he is gonna resolve this in 24 hours after all. [00:49:21] Chris: Yeah. [00:49:22] Dr. Kuzio: Um, he said a few days ago, there's no now, now there's no deadline. Um, again, which contradicts what Rubio said a few days ago, that we've got a week to go. So, there you are. Try and figure it out. Um, but I mean, I think that what we need to realize is that, um, it's not as bad as, as, um, as, as the Trump team are making it out, that Russia's all powerful Ukraine's gonna fold and be wiped off the face of the, of the map. The what has happened, um, is that a huge number of, a huge amount of Ukrainian weapons are now produced internally. Um, different figures show it's 40 to 50 percent of Ukrainian weapons, I saw, is produced inside Ukraine. Sometimes that's with Western financial support with Denmark and Estonian countries like that leading the way of often using the interest accumulated from frozen Russian assets. Um, and also I saw today that 90 percent of drones used by Ukraine on the frontline are produced inside Ukraine. So, we're talking again there. Um, the, uh, something like, the figure is something like three quarters of Russian casualties are, are created by drones or other similar types of equipment, not by hand to hand combat anymore. So, that's the new world of war that we are living in. Um, Ukraine has, I think, used that new technology successfully to overcome obviously, the, the greater Russian manpower, um, levels compared to Ukrainians. Um, and it's also been a good way to reduce Ukrainian casualties because casualties will tend to be more in hand-to-hand combat than in drone, drone warfare if you are well camouflaged and such, like. So, I don't think the, the military situation for Ukraine is, is, is desperate by any means. One hopes the Europeans rise to the occasion. There seems to be that movement taking place. Um, what's good to see is that the West Europeans have now no longer accused the East Europeans of being Russophobic, that they've now kind of basically jumped on board and stand with the same position as the East Europeans, um, on, on Russia. So, I, I, maybe we are moving to a world where there will be this break between Europe and, and the US. Um, we shall see. I guess what we'll, shall, shall see where, where this goes at the NATO summit in June, in, uh, in The Hague. Um, maybe Macron was right after all many years ago when he told The Economist, "NATO is brain dead." [00:52:18] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:52:20] Dr. Kuzio: I think it's something that many people don't want to accept because it's been a part of our environment for, what? 80 years? 70 years? Um, but, but I guess, uh, that's, it's all to do with, you know, what's the Trump position, um, on this? Um, they don't seem to have any respect for alliances and for, and for allies. Um, maybe they, that will change, but we, we shall see. Um, but, um, uh, the war will continue probably, um, in various forms. Um, Ukraine, um, is taking the war inside Russia. Uh, senior Russian commanders and scientists are being assassinated in Russia. Um, and Ukraine keeps attacking oil refineries, um, military factories in Russia. Um, Ukraine's domestically produced weapons are seemingly getting better and better. I mean, the now on the verge, I think, are, are soon to release a thousand-kilometer-distance missile. So, watch out Moscow, I will say. [00:53:29] Chris: Yeah. Well, Ukraine has a history of producing missiles and things. [00:53:32] Dr. Kuzio: Well, this is what, again, something that I think not everybody remembers. Um, it's as though people expected Ukraine, Ukrainians with pitchforks to charge the Russian tanks in February '22. You are absolutely right. You've got, there's a number of factors here. You've, you had a huge military industrial complex, which, which, yes, it declined after 1991, but that expertise stayed in the laboratories, in the research establishments and, and such like. You have a, um, I think the first Soviet encyclopedia of cybernetics was published in Kyiv in the '60s because you had the biggest nuclear weapons factory in the world was in Dnipropetrovsk, um, and it needed of course a huge back, backup of research laboratories, you know, um, and, and, and, and, and expert experts and scientists, cybernetics. That in turn, um, has impacted upon Ukraine today having a huge IT sector. Um, and um, I think what also works in Ukraine's favor compared to Russia is that it's a democracy, not an, not a kind of a, a, an autocratic system, which tries to control everything. So, when you have, um, the freedom to basically set up your own little defense company in a couple of garages or a warehouse, you can do that in Ukraine. Nobody's going to, you're not gonna be visited by the local security service and asked what you're doing. In Russia, that's not, that's possible. So, that, that allows for a lot of innovation. You have something like over 300 private defense companies in Ukraine. You also have, which again, the Trump team have ignored, you have two, uh, areas that the Americans are getting benefits from. American military defense companies and others are using Ukraine as a testing ground. It's the best testing ground for their weapons in the world. You, you know, you, I've heard of them using it, going through, like, three or four prototypes on the battlefield, and then they eventually finally get the, the right one and they start producing it. Um, you also have, um, as we saw in that very long article in The New York Times last year, the, the CIA has been cooperating with Ukrainian intelligence for now nearly 10 years, and they can't believe the treasure trove of intelligence they've been getting with the help of Ukrainians about the Russians. [00:56:03] Chris: Yeah, indeed. [00:56:05] Dr. Kuzio: I mean, you know, for, for a future war, this isn't, this is, this is gold dust. You know, this is great stuff. Um, and so, you know, uh, one wonders were whether this kind of cooperation would continue if Ukrainians get completely fed up with the American position, with the Trump team position. So the, the idea that it was always a one-way street, it was always mistaken. There was a two-way street there. Both sides got things that they wanted, and including on the military aid given to Ukraine, you get the impression that Trump seems to think Zelensky arrives in Washington with huge holdalls, which are filled with cash and he goes home. It doesn't work like that. You know, um, American, Americans get jobs because of that military aid to Ukraine, um, because old stock is sent to Ukraine and the replenishment of new stock means work, means workplaces. Um, so yeah, I mean this, all of that is potentially under threat, I guess, um, in, in the case of US as, as is with other things related to the tariffs that he's unleashed as well. [00:57:17] Chris: Mm-hmm, indeed. Well, I better wrap us up, but thank you very much for your time today and, uh, stay safe and have a, you know, safe journey home. [00:57:25] Dr. Kuzio: Thank you. [00:57:59] Announcer: Thanks for listening. This is Secrets and Spies.