[00:00:04] Secrets and Spies presents Espresso Martini with Chris Carr and Matt Fulton. Welcome to Operation Epic Martini, I mean Espresso Martini. Matt, how are you?

[00:00:32] I'm good. I'm good, Chris. Been waiting for two weeks for that joke. I don't have a response to that one. You kind of threw that one at me. I'm sick of the naysayers and the whatever else, the cucks, how, yeah, whatever else he would say about that. Oh, my goodness. Well, yes. No, what a time that we are living in at the moment, is all I can say. Yeah.

[00:00:58] Oh, Dave, you don't laugh, you cry. So I figured we'll go for laughter today. So it was, yeah, yeah, crazy, crazy time. It's been a while. It has been a while. And apologies to everybody, because we missed, we were supposed to do this, I think it was last week, and I can't remember what happened in there. Something happened and it stopped us from doing it. But we had, I had an interview with Charles Beaumont the day after, and there was just no way I could manage prepping for two back-to-back like that. So that was my bad.

[00:01:26] Well, it was all right. It was like a fine wine. I think that extra week has actually helped Matt. Yeah. And I don't know, like, I enjoyed my episode with Charles. That'll be out. Yeah, looking forward to getting that out. The week after next. Yeah. Yeah. So we got that one in the can.

[00:01:42] Yeah, no, April was just sort of a crazy month. I was kind of all over the place. I was barely home for the month. I was in DC. I was in Florida. I was a couple other places. The few of the days between two of those trips that I was home, I had food poisoning. Oh. So that was fun. I'm sorry to hear that. That's the worst. The food poisoning is literally the worst thing ever. Next to death. I was yearning for death. For a couple hours, I was yearning for death. But now we're fine.

[00:02:12] Yeah, I'm very sorry to hear that. I don't know if people want to hear too much about my food poisoning. Maybe not. No, maybe not. But we got through it. Good. You know, no thanks to the cocks and the naysayers and the, you know. Yeah. Indeed. Well, I'm glad you're fully recovered now, so that's good. Thank you. So, yeah, so today we have a jam-packed episode as always. So we've got the latest on the Iran war.

[00:02:36] We have Viktor Orban's defeat in the Hungarian elections. And then we'll be wrapping up on two CIA officers who were sadly killed in Mexico. Matt, we're going to kick off with the Iran war, which is still kind of the headline. Where are we at now? We're 60 days into this conflict. Is that right? For a project, it's about two months. Yeah, a little over. It was February 28th. So it's April 30th as we are recording this. So, yeah, just about two months.

[00:03:02] So we're coming up on that 60-day war powers issue. That would be a thing if we cared about such issues. Wow. Congress was fun to watch. Was it yesterday? It was the Senate committee or whatever on grilling Hegssef yesterday on C-SPAN. Oh, yeah. Yeah, for him. Yeah. Yeah. But anyway, I'll let you carry on. Okay. Two months into war, the United States and Iran are stuck in an uncomfortable limbo. A tenuous ceasefire is holding.

[00:03:30] The Strait of War moves is still contested. And diplomacy moves in fits and starts that have so far produced more press releases than progress. To recap where we are, on February 28th, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated campaign of airstrikes against Iran with stated objectives of destroying its nuclear and ballistic missile program and, more ambitiously, inducing regime change.

[00:03:54] Supreme Leader Ali Hamai was killed. Iran's response was swift and broad. Counterstrikes against Israel and U.S. bases across the region, missile attacks on Gulf Arab states, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical choke points for oil and gas. The conflict had been burning for nearly six weeks when Pakistan's prime minister brokered a conditional two-week ceasefire on April 8th since Extended, creating the space for negotiations.

[00:04:21] Those talks produced exactly one round of face-to-face discussions before stalling. On April 11th, U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in Islamabad and reported polite but hollow progress. President Trump summarized the outcome bluntly. Most points were agreed, but the only point that really mattered, Iran's nuclear stockpile, was not. Iran insists it has the right to enrich uranium. The U.S. position is zero enrichment at all.

[00:04:47] The gap on that single issue has effectively frozen everything else. The future of Iran's ballistic missile program is support for armed proxies from Hezbollah to the Houthis in Yemen, the reopening of the Strait, sanctions relief, and any long-term security guarantees. Since those talks collapsed, no further rounds have been confirmed. As of this week, the ceasefire remains technically in place, but so does the standoff in the Strait.

[00:05:13] And Trump has repeatedly threatened that if a deal isn't reached, the U.S. will strike every power plant and bridge in Iran, which would be, of course, a war crime. But there's also a talk right now, as we were recording, CENTCOM is apparently briefing Trump on this right now, of like a short, sustained campaign of airstrikes to... Where have I heard that before? Kiev in 72 hours.

[00:05:42] Oh my God! Trump even mentioned in an interview, I think it was yesterday, that apparently the Ukraine war and Iran war can now end on the same timetable. Really? 24 hours? We'll have it wrapped up? 24 hours? Oh my word! Honestly, people. Honestly. However, I digress. Aside from the diplomatic picture, there's another story unfolding inside the administration that may matter just as much.

[00:06:10] So according to reporting from The Atlantic, and some guy named V.D. Jantz is the source, I'm sure, Vice President J.D. Vance has been privately questioning whether the Pentagon is telling the president the truth about how this war is actually going. In closed-door meetings, Vance is pushed back on the Defense Department's portrayal of U.S. weapons stockpiles and the damage inflicted on Iranian forces.

[00:06:37] The picture Secretary Hegseth has been painting, decisive, drastic, moving toward victory, doesn't match what intelligence assessments apparently show. Iran still has two-thirds of its air force, most of its missile-launching capacity. They've been able to dig some of that stuff out over the course of the ceasefire. And the speedboats that, of course, are the real threat to merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. munitions reserves have been severely drawn down.

[00:07:06] The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates Washington may have already burned through more than half of its pre-war supply of four key weapon systems, the same stockpiles that would be needed in a great power conflict in the Pacific or Europe. So the question this raises isn't merely tactical. It's about whether the president is being given an accurate picture of the war he is fighting, and what happens to American strategy if he isn't.

[00:07:32] The munitions problem alone has implications that extend well beyond Iran. The same interceptors and precision strike weapons being consumed in this campaign are the ones the U.S. would need to defend Taiwan, deter North Korea, and backstop NATO against Russia. If those stockpiles are as depleted as Vance apparently fears, then a war sold as a decisive show of American strength may have eroded the credibility of American deterrence everywhere else. Chris, what do you think?

[00:08:07] So, um... You're going to be a cock and a naysayer, Chris? Come on, you're going to be defeatist? Well, let me ask you one... You can't let the good times roll? Can't let the big bombs go boom? So are you telling me... Come on, Chris. Are you honestly telling me... Beta shit, Chris. Are you telling me Pete Hegseth is lying? Is that what you're saying? Between bottles of Jaeger, yeah. Yeah. Oh my goodness. Shock. Shock horror. Shock horror.

[00:08:32] Well, look, joking aside, I mean, yeah, this whole thing about Hegseth might be blowing through U.S. missile stocks to facilitate Trump's very ill-thought-out actions in Iran does not surprise me in the slightest. And I am in a bit of a one-star review mood about Trump and his team at the moment, so I'll do my best to be very polite and measured in my thoughts and not go too far off the reservation with things.

[00:08:56] But, I mean, yeah, I do feel like I'm repeating myself a little bit here, so apologies if I am. But, you know, I think the Trump administration... I think what I've noticed with the Trump administration, particularly in this last year, which has been so far quite short, it's like since January, since January, it's felt like a very long year. And we're only coming up into May now. Yeah. And what is coming out quite clearly to me is the Trump administration is actually deeply incompetent.

[00:09:26] There's a lot of bluster, a lot of chest-pounding, a lot of bold moves, all to distract us from a bigger truth that his team does not know how to professionally operate with the tools at its disposal. We saw this with Greenland. You know, Trump waded into a situation, upset all of America's allies over Greenland's role in the U.S. defense, and it was a topic that actually could have been handled from the get-go by diplomats and would have likely resulted in the situation as it stands now,

[00:09:55] which is a renegotiation of the U.S. existing treaty with Denmark over Greenland. And this could have all been done without the political cost and without the direct intervention of the president, who could have spent his time and energy on governing, not grandstanding. As for Pete Hegseff, many expressed concerns over his ability and qualifications to head to Pentagon when he kind of started. And Hegseff, like Trump, likes to do a lot of groundstanding and chest-thumping,

[00:10:23] and he appears to like to use missiles to blow things up and kill people. And I assume that he is in the belief that it looks like he's making the U.S. powerful. And maybe since changing the name to the Department of War, he's come to the belief that there is a war quota that has to be met, and it's measured by the use of force. Maybe that is why he has been aiding Trump with everything from killing alleged drug smugglers in boats to kidnapping or, you can say, arresting the Venezuelan president, and then blowing up lots of things in Iran.

[00:10:51] What is stunning, aside from the possibility that the U.S. is depleting its stockpiles, is how badly U.S. forces were placed at the start of this conflict. It took minesweepers and additional naval assets a number of weeks to get into place to protect the Straits of Hormuz, as if this was some great surprise. Why was it a great surprise? Considering that there has been 40-plus years of planning a conflict against Iran,

[00:11:17] why was the Straits of Hormuz such a shock when the Iranians closed it? You know, honestly, I think what I've noticed and my read of the situation is, I think the Trump administration was putting their bets on a short-term campaign that would revolve around airstrikes and that the Iranian regime would fall quickly and someone more favourable would take over. And this comes in spite of CIA warnings just prior to war, and I assume the existing war plans we just mentioned, you know, that this would not happen.

[00:11:48] And now, just at the beginning, we've been told that the CENTCOM is planning some more sort of sustained strikes to end this. I mean, like, what on earth? And one last thing, I never in a million years thought I would appreciate J.D. Vance for being the adult in the room, because J.D. Vance, quite frankly, is a clown. But, and he's not- You don't have to hand it to him. No, I suppose I don't. I'm being generous. I'm trying to appeal to the one-star reviewers out there.

[00:12:17] But, you know, honestly, the fact that J.D. Vance is actually asking the serious question of, how many missiles do we actually have? Whilst Pete Hegseth is going around saying, we have infinite weapons and we could just keep going. It's just out of control from what I'm reading. It just appears to be a bit out of control. And this isn't good. This isn't good for anybody. It's not good if, let's say, China decide now, let's take Taiwan when we've got the opportunity in the next few months, or if North Korea decides, you know what?

[00:12:45] We want to take the South back so we can kind of create the United Korea under our management. That could all happen now. That could be weeks away, could be months away, could be years away. But it is more likely to happen if America is not able to military respond to those scenarios. So that is a big concern right now. So, yeah. So, Matt, what are your thoughts on all of this?

[00:13:10] I mean, the sourcing for this article here in the Atlanta that we're talking about is clearly J.D. Vance or people in his office, right? Like, very clearly. It's him, you know, stuffing that CYA file as fat as he can. I think he also sees, and he's right to see his political future very clearly tied to this war in this moment

[00:13:35] that he, I think, to just be fair to him, obviously didn't think was a good idea or wanted in the first place. I mean, that sort of, like, non-interventionist, no more stupid wars kind of, you know, we were lied to in Iraq and Afghanistan and everything. Like, I think he, to his credit, he genuinely believes that. Like, that is a real feeling of his. And I can understand that feeling. I can understand that feeling. Yes, yes. Totally, totally.

[00:14:04] I think he pushes it too far into the isolationist camp, you know? Like, that's where I break from him. But as far as, like, he has a point there to an extent. And I think he is correct in his read of, you know, the American public, of their sort of, like, exasperation for that sort of thing. And that was a real selling point for Trump's campaign in 2024, you know?

[00:14:30] At least with the podcast bros and everything, were people right to buy that load of bullshit from them, considering some of the stuff he did, Trump did in the first term? That's a debate that people can and are having. But be that as it may, I think he, Vance correctly sees, A, this being a huge political liability for him. I mean, because of this war, you're going to for sure in 2028 have someone running in

[00:14:57] a Republican primary that is like the anti-MAGA is sort of a hard, is sort of the wrong way to frame it. But basically, it's going to be someone, there's a lane for someone to occupy and will, I think, that says, you know, Trump turned, Trump went the wrong way. Trump had some good points, but he failed to deliver.

[00:15:24] And, you know, like, I want to actually, like, this sort of stuff that, like, Tucker, I think Tucker could be the person who is saying this in the campaign, potentially. Oh, my goodness. Tucker Carlson, yeah. Yeah. Stuff like what he and Marjorie Taylor Greene are saying. Like, that sort of a lane is now very clearly open in the primary because of this war. And J.D. Vance is going to be the one who has to carry that.

[00:15:52] You know, which is so darkly ironic for him to begin with. But I don't know. That's the Vance thing. As far as the munitions stockpiles, I mean, this has been a chronic issue for a long time. Honestly, going back before Trump's term, it goes back to giving munitions to Ukraine,

[00:16:18] the resupplying interceptors and everything to Israel over the course of the regional war that we've been dealing with since October 7th and everything. And I'm not saying that's to suggest that we were wrong to give those munitions to Ukraine. I don't feel that way at all. But this is a serious chronic issue that we've been dealing with and I think have not taken it seriously. And I think a lot of people who are in office right now are people who under Biden were saying,

[00:16:44] hey, munitions stockpile, this is a huge issue with our forges, with our shipyards. You know, it's not just a stockpile of tomahawks. It goes back to our shipbuilding capacity as well, the way the major defense contractors have sort of atrophied in their manufacturing capacity in recent years. We have a similar problem in the UK. I mean, it's far worse in many respects. Yeah, absolutely. Far worse. Yeah. And this is like a real this is a real thing.

[00:17:14] And like you guys had a point about it and now you're in office and you caught the car and you're making it worse. Well, this is it because you're going to need reinvestment to basically improve those systems that are failing. And the problem is when you kind of mount a questionable war, recall it that I'd say it was a legal war, but a questionable war. Sure. That's very unpopular. Then it means defense spending is going to become politically very difficult to do. Yeah. You know, it's crazy. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:17:41] And then I don't know you have Hegseth who's who's a different issue who I think is manifestly unworthy and unqualified. And I think you see him essentially, you know, yelling about the fake, macho, tough guy, bullshit, culture war stuff like partying with Kid Rock at I think it was Fort Belvoir. They were at recently just like a couple of days ago as we're recording this. I mean, that's.

[00:18:10] He does that because that's all he can do. What is it? That's what keeps him popular, isn't it? You know, yeah. Popular with whom, though? Well, to his crowd, you know, to the MAGA crowd, to the people who thought that this was a good idea in the first place, the people who spend their time on YouTube watching Joe Rogan and all that nonsense. No, Rogan's even, I mean, Rogan's not on. If you're in the Rogan audience, chances are you're not. Well, Rogan's a bit like the wind, man, because he was in the White House just last week. Yeah, they were. Honestly, honestly.

[00:18:40] Trump, he changed some of the legal restrictions around like psychedelics and stuff as a treatment and a therapy and stuff. And that's a big thing that Rogan has been a part of. But I think that was sort of seen as as a as an olive branch to keep Rogan in the tent to to an extent.

[00:19:03] But he's been Rogan, to his credit, has been, again, not saying you got to hand it to him, but has been pretty outspoken on on the war. But I mean, I think like, OK, you send the administration sends Dan Driscoll to Europe, the secretary of the army. Major Hegseth rival and ally of Vance. Elbridge Colby is also a big ally of Vance as well. He was sort of like the guy that Vance wanted in the Pentagon, like specifically requested that.

[00:19:32] But they said Dan Driscoll to Europe to sort of, you know, do that round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. I think they send him because Hegseth, like literally just isn't cut out for it. Like if it's not some fake macho posturing tough guy culture war bullshit, like he can't he can't do it. It's not, you know, he's not he's not capable of doing the stuff that a normal secretary of defense would do.

[00:20:00] And his his the briefings and stuff that they gave to Trump and everything on the war is essentially just like a. A YouTube compilation of, you know, big explosions and stuff, and that's his that's his war briefing. So if you think that that's that is a measure of success or progress in this war, I mean, yeah, there's no shortage of clips of stuff blowing up in Iran that you can wheel out and show, look, progress.

[00:20:28] Yes, but it's not at the cost as well. I mean, like it's been to date from what I found is 13 U.S. service personnel have been killed. 381 wounded. Obviously, thousands of civilians have been killed. You've had drone losses. So something like 24 plus drones have been destroyed. I'm fascinated to know why how these high level Reaper Jones are being attacked. I would love to know a bit more about that at some point. You've lost so far. Well, these are a bit out of date now, but you've lost 15.

[00:20:57] So if you lost four F-15s, you've lost one E3G Sentry and had one damage to C-130s to KC-135 Strata tankers plus and then another six have been damaged. And the tanker situation is a problem because the replacement for the KC-135, which is the KC-46 or KA-46, has had endless problems and had all sorts of issues.

[00:21:26] So it's not quite up to par with the existing one. And so when you start losing these sort of historic aircraft, because the KC-135 is like a 40, no, it's probably older than that. It's like a 60-year-old airframe. It's based on a Boeing 707. It's an old plane that they keep in service. You know, once you start losing those, that's really hard. And there's the other question as well. Like with this war that they knew they were about to start, why were so many assets kind of within range of Iranian missiles?

[00:21:54] The minesweepers that we had forward deployed to Bahrain, they were moved to Singapore like shortly before the war started. Like, why would you do that? Yeah, there was certainly a lack of foresight and planning that went into this. I mean, as far as like, I'll respond to a couple of things there. As far as like the number of aircraft and equipment and everything lost, the Reapers are, there's the MQ-9s. Yeah, yeah.

[00:22:24] The Reapers are pretty vulnerable, especially when you're dealing with a sort of contested environment, a real regional power, you know, such as the Iranian czar. I mean, we're not talking about, you know, monitoring ISIS or Al-Qaeda or something in Afghanistan or something where the Reapers are pretty much vulnerable. I mean, you can take them out pretty easily. And they're not like, say, like the Global Hawks or something that go really high up, like really high altitude. Lost a couple of those, I think, as well. But yeah. Yeah.

[00:22:54] As far as the aircraft losses, that's a concern. I wouldn't, the aircraft that were lost on the rescue of the F-15 Weapon Systems Officer, I don't, I don't, I don't really care about those aircraft that were lost. I mean, those were aircraft that were lost in the effort to recover that airman. I'm not going to, you know, pinch pennies around that. That's not something that we do. No, no.

[00:23:23] It's an understandable loss. Yeah, I'll put it that way. Yeah. And they were, they were, they were destroyed in place because the MC-130s got stuck in the sand at the forward arming and refueling point that we had other aircraft. Reminiscent of, what was the Iranian hostage rescue operation again? What was that called? Desert One. Yeah. It's kind of reminiscent of that, wasn't it? Desert One was the location. Operation Eagle Claw. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm not, I'm not really worried about that too much.

[00:23:53] I will say that the, the, the loss of the tanker aircraft that was at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, um, there's a drone attack that got through and that was also where the AWACS was, was destroyed. That's concerning for sure. Um, the laws that AWACS aircraft, that is probably the most valuable asset lost in the course of the war. Those are, we're very limited in number of those. Those are old. And they canceled the replacement, which is become a contested issue. Yeah.

[00:24:23] I don't think it's real settled yet what we're going to do about that. Yeah. Well, NATO allies have now canceled their orders and gone with the Saab equivalent. Um, cause Saab have a competitor jet that's smaller and cheaper to run. And so America have lost that contract now. Yeah. There's a belief that satellites and everything would sort of take the ability of the AWACS and early warning aircraft, which I think that, that it's not quite there yet. It's not. That's quite vulnerable though. Yes. If in a war situation, it wouldn't be difficult to take out all the satellites in one move.

[00:24:52] It wouldn't, you know, obviously there are defenses to some extent, but you could with an EMP and stuff like that. There are things you could do in a massive warlike scenario, which, but there are. Yeah. You're talking something like, you know, you're dealing with China in that regard. But yeah, I mean, the loss of that AWACS bird is it. That's it. That was an E3 century. That's, that's it. That's probably the most, um, significant loss that the military has, has faced, um, thus far.

[00:25:21] I think however this goes down really will sort of determine whether I think Hegseth makes it through the end of his term. I mean, he's going to have, he's going to, he's, he's going to have real trouble after the midterms anyway. Yeah. Um, he's going to get a lot of incoming fire from Congress after the midterms for sure. That's going to be a problem. And, you know, he has very few friends over there.

[00:25:51] I mean, there's a lot of Republicans that don't, that don't like him either. I mean, I could see it getting to a point where like what took out Christine Noem, the, um, Homeland Security Secretary. Congress just got exacerbated with a shit. Exasperated with a shit. And we're like, okay, like we're done, you know? Yeah. I could see that happening. Yeah. Essentially got, got run out of, got run out of office. You know, I, yeah, I, I could see that happening with, with Hegseth too. Just, you know.

[00:26:15] I think, I think what I saw from this reporting, obviously Hegseth and Trump are very close and Hegseth is sort of trying to tell Trump what he wants to hear, which is very dangerous. Um, as you were saying earlier, and I think Hegseth puts all his cards on team Trump and thinks that as long as Trump's there, he'll be protected. But I think once Trump's gone, whether that be, um, by the end of his term or whether through health he has to leave early and president, sorry, vice president Vance becomes president Vance.

[00:26:44] Or, um. Oh, there's no way he survives in advance. I think also, I, I think when another administration comes in, whether that be a, uh, Democrat administration or maybe some other version of the Republicans, I think then Hegseth could well be a sacrificial lamb for, um, better international relations. Because quite frankly, I think a lot of allies are really pissed off of America now and would like to see some sort of, um, what's the word?

[00:27:11] Some sort of moves to sort of, uh, redeem themselves. And I think Hegseth would make a- A blood sacrifice? Yeah. I think Hegseth would make a perfect one at The Hague. Um, so I, I, I'd be up for that, but we'll see what happens. But I think, I think once Trump's gone, Hegseth's very vulnerable, um, both politically and, and probably, uh, physically as well. These guys are going to be looking over their shoulders for Iranian agents for the rest of their lives, for sure.

[00:27:38] And they've also established the precedent of, um, an administration pulling security details from former officials that they don't like, which may not have been wise as far as, um, Hegseth is concerned. I don't, I don't think Hegseth's story is gonna, is gonna end well at all. No. No, I think he's got, he's got real issues. Um, also this, this, this reporting from, from The Atlantic talks about how, you know, he's sort of, he's toyed with the idea of, of running for president himself.

[00:28:07] Well, that I think just shows how just, just, really? Like you think- Well, how popular is he? I mean, unless you just totally, he's not. What about with the MAGA base? I mean, prior to the war, you know, was he a popular, I mean, I'm still surprised Trump managed to get back in, but, you know, yeah. The war has sort of split the MAGA base to begin with, you know, and he's sort of like the face of cheerleading for that.

[00:28:34] It just shows how lost in the sauce you gotta be to think that, like, you stand a shot at that. It's nuts. I mean, okay, to that point, Noem, uh, Chrissy Noem and, and Corey Lewandowski, her, her, her boy toy on the, um, airplane, um, you know, uh, that was like the airplane also, that, that she was, that she had a future running for president and stuff.

[00:28:57] Like, just shows how, just completely just diluted and out of touch and just so wrapped up in their own propaganda that these people are that they would think that that's a possibility. You know, at least Vance, again, you don't got a hand to him, but to his credit, like, Vance sees this as a real political, like, nightmare for him. And he is correct in that assessment. Why don't they see it too? It's nuts. He is a political animal because he was prior. He's not stupid. No, because he was anti-Trump to begin with.

[00:29:23] And then he turned about face because he even, I can't remember what he called Trump now, but it was quite serious what he said about Trump. He called him America's Hitler. That's it. So, like, he went from calling Trump America's Hitler to being vice president. So there's been a big about turn there. He is a political animal. And, and I'm sure as soon as it's convenient for him to be somewhat, um, anti-Trump, he probably will pull that card if he can. It's going to be very hard for him, nigh impossible for him to do that while Trump's in office.

[00:29:52] I mean, him trying to run a primary as vice president while Trump is still in office without, and, and Bernie, like, that's, I, it's impossible for him. Yeah. Yeah. So he knows. So he's, um, yeah, yeah. So maybe he just wants to keep, um, make life difficult for the people he dislikes and keep the ones he wants close to him for whenever. Because the thing is, I mean, Trump's an old guy. He's not at the best of health. I think honestly, maybe even Vance knows something we don't.

[00:30:21] Maybe there is something brewing, um, where he might become the president sooner than we think. I don't know. It's, it's difficult to say really, but. It's possible. It's possible. I mean, I'm not one of those people that are, you know, saying like, oh yeah, any week now the dementia is going to catch up with him. I'm not, I'm not in that camp at all. Do you know what? It's really fascinating because, um, I obviously, you know, we, we, no, um, uh, you know, we don't, uh, obscure this, that both you and I are kind of left of center.

[00:30:50] And I, there are a couple of sort of YouTube channels I occasionally look to just out of interest. And I'm amazed at like how, um, is it Midas touch and those kinds of people? How every other day there's some video about Trump is done. His dementia is going to get annoyed. And it's just total nonsense. And you think after a while the audience would be like, Hey, wait, he's been done for. It's like, it's, it's like the two weeks thing. Yeah. It's ridiculous. And it's just like, uh, and YouTube is a wash with content like that.

[00:31:18] And then there's a wash with the opposite content too. And it's just painful because like the information space these days is just so, I don't know, it's just full of such nonsense and people just jumping on a particular bandwagon. And then, um, cause we've talked about this. I was talking about this before the reaction to Venezuela. And I think it might've fed into Trump's delusion about how Iran would play out. Oh, totally.

[00:31:41] Because I think a lot of the commentators outside of the Trump administration were completely celebrating this thing and riding off the kind of high wave of the military successes operation. But they totally ignored the kind of the, kind of the legal, uh, the legality of it, the ethics of it. Um, and all the other kind of questions around it about whether this thing should have even happened or not. And, and there's just too many people these days sort of playing to popularity.

[00:32:10] And I think it's becoming harm, uh, dangerous for, for people and for us to stay rational. I really feel that way. Yeah. If you built your career in a think tank or you're some formal official that now does consulting or something, and you've built your entire career around trying to formulate strategy and explain current events in the context of one strategy or another,

[00:32:35] you get to a point where you sort of delude yourself into looking at events that happen now and, and frame them as normal and being born of the same sort of strategy and, and, and policy processes that they were in the past. And that is just fundamentally not the case anymore. Yeah. And you get it with politics too. Yeah.

[00:33:01] If, if, if you're writing an article in, in foreign affairs that tries to explain the foreign policy of this term in terms of some, you know, established IR theory or whatever, like that is just utter bullshit. And as you, I think that's the author needing to do that to sort of justify the continuation of their career.

[00:33:26] If that makes sense, you know, that there's still a need for people to do that when there is no, there is no strategy or greater sort of underpinning behind this stuff. It's just grandpa wakes up and decides what he wants to do today. That's it. And this is, and too many people are trying to find ways to explain Trump's behavior, either to then appear to be the knowledgeable one to trust or whatever. And, you know, the funniest example I can think of right now.

[00:33:50] So there was somebody on LinkedIn who I, well, did follow, but I don't anymore, who was sort of trying to explain Trump and his thinking. And he said something in the lines of, I've been studying Trump since 2016. Then you should know better at this point. Exactly. And he was saying something in the lines of that Trump will not do anything before Easter to raise the petrol prices because Trump knows that Christians are going to go and see their families over Easter. What happened two days before Easter?

[00:34:17] The petrol prices went through the freaking roof because Trump decided, I've lost track now of what he did at that point because there's been so many things. And to be fair, for my mental health, I've had to tune out for a few things recently. Oh, there was a gas field. There was an Iranian gas field. Was it South Paris, I think, that the Israelis hit? Yeah. And now UAE are pulling out of OPEC at the moment. So that's going to be another interesting one, too.

[00:34:43] I mean, honestly, Trump has created a massive financial crisis that was completely unnecessary. Completely. Yeah. Honestly. And they're acting like they're surprised. It's like they should. This is what pisses me off. They should not be surprised. What they're doing has been foreseen for years. And yet they're the ones who just somehow don't seem to read details, read intelligence briefings or anything. I think all the analysts should be thinking about that.

[00:35:12] The only logic is these people don't freaking read history and they don't read strategy. That's their strategy. They don't read strategy. It's painful. They don't think. They don't think, period. They don't. So much of this is just laziness. It's arrogance and it's just laziness.

[00:35:32] You know, even if there's like, even if the core belief that the Iranian regime is this brutal, murderous, autocratic force for evil that has been, you know, plotting against and attacking U.S. and allied interests in the region elsewhere for 40 years. You know, that is true. But.

[00:35:55] The solution for it is just so their solution for it is just so half assed and there's no follow through and there's no kind of forethought of what you do and what the reaction of that is going to be. And to prepare for those reactions and everything is just it's all just by the seat of their pants. You know, even if the. Core thought behind it is is is correct. I mean, I think you see that in kind of the reaction of NATO allies and everything.

[00:36:24] You know, he flips out and throws a hissy fit because NATO allies didn't want to run to his rescue to help him reopen the strait, even though he didn't brief them on the operation. He didn't plan it with them. He didn't do anything to help prepare for it. And there's just this chronic like this, this maniacal disconnect of like cause and effect.

[00:36:46] You know, I mean, Emmanuel Macron and that in the in the midst of the whole Greenland debacle, Emmanuel Macron texted him. We know this because he posted screenshots of these texts. This is right after the regime in Iran killed like tens of thousands of their own people in putting down those protests. Macron said to him is trying to like talk him off the ledge about Greenland. He said, I'm quoting Macron here. He said, we can do great things on Iran. Yeah.

[00:37:14] So the door there is open to do something with Europe and NATO on Iran. Yeah. And they just didn't do they just didn't they just didn't talk to anybody about it because they're just they're just lazy and their heads are so far up their own asses. Yeah. And they and they think American power as people do what America says when they say it. They don't realize that American power actually is negotiating of allies. That has never been the case. No, no. Yeah. No.

[00:37:39] And this is even George Bush had the sense before mounting the invasion of Iraq to planet. Coalition of the Willing. Yeah. Months ahead. I think. And sold it. Yeah. Yeah. You know. So it's just like, honestly, people. Oh, dearie me. So it's it's painful. It really is.

[00:37:58] And so I ultimately, I mean, one other thing, my suspicion is this will probably end up with some sort of new deal with Iran that probably won't be quite as good as the imperfect Obama era deal. That's probably the likely outcome at this point, isn't it? Because they're not going to Iran in a better position now than they were before to negotiate things for their end because they've closed the Straits of Hormuz and causing an international financial crisis and energy crisis.

[00:38:28] And, yeah, Trump has now blockaded their blockade. But it's like that's not going to really last very long. Well, it took two years for the Obama administration to negotiate the JCPOA. And that was just on the fairly narrow question of the nuclear program. Right. Didn't address. It didn't address ballistic missiles. Didn't address their support. Iran support for terrorist groups in the region, you know, which was a criticism of the JCPOA. And a justified one. And debate that and everything. And yeah. OK.

[00:38:57] That's a conversation worth having. They want to do all this stuff like right now. It's because these people, they all bang on about like bureaucracy and red tape. They don't understand that the world actually functions that way. The world needs time to cajole people, get people to your side of thinking and negotiate back and forth to get to a compromise. That's how kind of politics works. It's slow. It's methodical.

[00:39:26] But ultimately, it leads to usually a better outcome for most people. It's never a perfect outcome, but it usually is a better of two evils, so to speak. And you and you gradually build upon your successes. You know, OK, we have an imperfect deal that addresses the nuclear program and stabilizes that issue. Let's build on it. And now let's address the ballistic missile program. And OK, after that, we'll address the issue with their support for proxies. And you get there one step at a time. Yeah, yeah.

[00:39:55] With all this sort of grandstanding and blowing stuff up, you just make it harder and harder to have these necessary conversations. And this is the big difference, I think, because Trump has got away with sort of not literally the same behavior of business, but kind of the same kind of that he's used that logic in business and got away with it. But in international politics, that logic doesn't work. It's this maximalist madman sort of theory.

[00:40:21] You know, he always starts from the top rope, you know, as insane demands that he possibly can. I honestly think that's where the Greenland stuff came from. And that's what he was doing. I'm not excusing that as a negotiating tactic at all, but I think that's what he was doing. That's the same thing he was doing with the bridges in the power plants, you know. Well, a whole civilization will die tonight. You know, the Palpatine speech that he was given, you know, that's in his mind, it's a negotiating strategy.

[00:40:50] Not excusing it, not saying it's right. That's in his mind. That's what he's doing. That's what he knows to do. And everything is like he's doing a deal on granite countertops for some condo development. You know, that's what he knows. And it leads to taco, which is something I use of great caution because I don't want to encourage Trump to one day to decide to actually end civilization, Iran, just to prove us wrong on that point. But ultimately, everybody sort of sees through it now and don't take it seriously.

[00:41:20] They shrug it off. And as always, there's Trump mouthing off for four hours. You know, Nancy Scaramucci's made a career out of saying that. You know, that's what he says all the time now. It's stats the situation, isn't it? Yeah. Oh, my goodness. Well, is there anything else to add on this situation? Or do you feel you've covered everything you feel you need to cover? No, I think we think we got it. Okay, cool. Well, thank you for that. Well, let's let's take a break and we'll be back with more.

[00:42:05] Welcome back, everybody. So we're going to take a look a little bit at the recent elections in Hungary. And I noticed, you know, a lot of people have seen this as a positive thing, which I think ultimately it is. But as we'll chat about, there will probably be some caveats to that positivity. But there we go. So I'm just going to give us a quick summary of what happened.

[00:42:25] And so Peter Magyar has replaced Viktor Orban as prime minister of Hungary, ending 16 years of rule that made the country a byword for democratic backsliding in Europe. Magyar spent two decades as a behind the scenes figure in Orban's party, and he broke with it publicly in 2024 after a scandal forced his ex-wife, Hungary's then justice minister, to resign.

[00:42:49] He launched the Tizar party, toured the country relentlessly, and then turned that groundwork into a landslide. Orban never disguised what he was doing. He openly championed illiberal democracy, re-rising the constitution, reshaping the judiciary, and bringing the media into alignment with the state. Supporters saw a politician with convictions. Critics saw a calculated dismantling of democratic norms.

[00:43:16] Either way, it made him one of the most consequential and divisive leaders in modern European history. An Applebaum who has watched Orban closely for years argues that none of this was inevitable. These systems survive not because history demands them, but because they're actively maintained through loyalist networks, captured media, and weakened institutions. And they can be reversed, but it takes more than winning an election to do so.

[00:43:43] That is the warning that hangs over Magyar's victory. Orban has lost. His politics have not. The nativist arguments he amplified on immigration, sovereignty, and identity are still life currents across Europe from Paris to Rome to Warsaw. So the harder task now is rebuilding. Whether Hungary can do that and whether its example travels is the question that matters the most. So Matt, what are your thoughts on that?

[00:44:09] Well, I was very pleasantly surprised to see the end of Viktor Orban's reign in Hungary. I'm sort of pleasantly surprised by how kind of painless the transition seems to be. Yes. You know, there was a lot of just bluster and talk and threats. And there was that potential of a false flag thing that they were doing with the Russians with a gas pipeline from Serbia and all that.

[00:44:36] And it seemed like, you know, we were going to have a real, to get rid of him, we're going to have a real. Scorched earth fight on our hands. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And it's just sort of, he just gave up and is, and is going away, which, you know, Hey, great. Um, I agree with the assessment though. I think it's always been true that the sort of, the way they, the way these people want you to feel that they are inevitable and that they will get a hold of power and hold it for ever is just not true.

[00:45:05] And it's never been true. And I think there's a real lesson here in, um, seeing that it was, it was likely just the, the corruption that so exacerbated the, um, exasperated the, uh, Hungarian people, you know? And that's the thing that kind of ended him. Just the, just the in your face corruption and, and, and kleptocracy that really just revolts people.

[00:45:33] You know, I think there are lessons in that here for sure. Oh yeah, definitely. I think when it hits people in the wallets, um, is when it really starts to unravel. Um, you know, and I think that's what was happening in Hungary because it kind of been cut off for a long time, um, and subject to sanctions from Europe, et cetera, which Maggie was trying to reverse now. Um, so yeah, that'd be interesting to see.

[00:45:55] I think there's also a, a, um, will be a lesson worth watching in, in how Hungary now. Sort of rolls back, you know, um, the, the, the changes and everything that Orban instituted to sort of, uh, meant to solidify his place in power.

[00:46:16] If they're successful in, in enacting reforms to prevent this from happening again, holding people accountable, which, um, Peter Magyar has been very vocal in his insistence that, yeah, we're going to do that. But it'll be interesting to see to me, at least how successful they are in that and could be, um, again, a lesson for us. Yeah. Yeah, indeed. Indeed. Indeed. So, yeah. So, I mean, echoing popular sentiment, I think it was good to see democracy work and Orban getting removed from power.

[00:46:45] And I know obviously you guys in the U S has sort of been looking at this with, and it's given you a lot of hope about maybe the midterms and the 2028 elections. Um, and you know, I'm hoping it does signal a shift. Um, but there is a buzz killing to the me that kind of wants to offer some caution too. And, you know, Magyar was still very much a conservative politician. Um, he is making positive steps. He's trying to rebuild relations with the EU, seeking money, as I mentioned earlier, from frozen, um, assets and things due to sanctions.

[00:47:13] In the run-up to the election, Magyar said that if Vladimir call, uh, Vladimir Putin calls, he'll pick up the phone and then he would tell him to please, after four years, put an end to the killing of this war, which is a positive thing. But then he did say that he expects, um, president Zelensky to restore the transit of Russian oil, um, via the pipeline, stressing that Budapest will not make concessions on that issue. So he still seems to want trade with Russia. That's an economic issue for them. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I think this is it.

[00:47:42] I think he is focusing on the economic issues at the moment. And I think he is trying to write the, the, the problems. Um, so people who are feeling pain, their wallet probably will feel it less. And I think he is banking on that. What, what that leads to beyond that, I'm not sure. Um, that we'll, we'll probably do some interviews maybe in the, down the line to see what's going on with Hungary. Um, I think he's kind of, I would say from his point of view, I think it is wise.

[00:48:09] He's trying to kind of balance out relations with Russia and the EU and trying to kind of get the best of both. Um, so we will see what happens. Um, but, uh, you know, it does look like Russia's political influence is poised to decrease. Now he's taken over. Um, but, uh, if, if, cause he's, he's, he's claimed that he is going to now investigate the previous government's links to Moscow.

[00:48:33] But, um, if, if he takes that too far, I can see the Kremlin are going to push back on that and make his life difficult. Um, especially if he wants to do trade and things with Russia so that he might find in time that he might sort of soften that approach. But we will see. We will see. Well, I'm sure the Russians will certainly try to undermine him once he's in office, right?

[00:48:58] Do things that, that, that decreases popularity so that, you know, more favorable people can come to power, um, in the future. That's sort of what they do. Yeah. Let's just hope he doesn't get his underpants poisoned like some other politicians, uh, politicians in Eastern Europe. Yeah. My, my, my question there was, you know, do, do these results in Hungary actually? I don't want to undercut the significance of it.

[00:49:24] It's a real, it's a real victory for small D Democrats, um, in the continent, on the continent. But, you know, does this result actually change anything in Europe's direction or is it still the case that Orban, Orbanism was always just sort of the loudest expression of something structural that'll continue regardless?

[00:49:46] You know, I think a lot of the stuff that Orbanism was about, maybe not the corruption and the, and the kleptocracy and all that kind of stuff, but hardline stances on migration and everything. I mean, that's still very popular in Europe. Like that, that's not going anywhere. Oh yeah. No, no, no. This, this is the, the kind of Christian nationalist far right kind of blood kind of going through the veins of Europe at the moment. And that has not gone away and it won't go away, go away anytime soon.

[00:50:13] And on top of that, there is American money that is fueling that a little bit in Europe too, as is there's Russian money fueling that as well. Um, so with regards to American money, I mean like not American government money, where it probably is government money now, but, um, you know, from sort of team Trump and Trumpism and the MAGA sphere, there's rich people in that space who are actively like, uh, for example, actually Elon Musk who actively trying to influence, um, the elections in Britain and other places.

[00:50:42] We saw obviously Trump and JD Vance were trying to influence the election in Hungary and it backfired on them. Thank God. Um, and I know at the moment, actually, because of the Iran war and potentially now the, the Falklands conflict that might come back, um, the being associated to Trump's becoming a bit more difficult. For certain politicians. So in the UK, Nigel Farage is starting to have a few issues with regards to his close relationship with, uh, Trump.

[00:51:11] Um, certainly I know he suffered a little bit on that front too, because of the, um, the tariffs, uh, well, I was to say last year, the tariffs are still kind of sort of going on, but the tariffs that cause chaos, um, in, in the UK and the manufacturing industry and led to lots of job losses has made any association from quite unpopular in some place. But then there is an irrationality connected to this support for the far right as well, that then bypasses common sense.

[00:51:39] And people still vote for these figures against their own interests. Um, I was on a totally different topic. So it's been this terrible, um, sort of, uh, terrorist incident in the UK yesterday where a man, yeah, in gold is green, a man, uh, you know, a Somalian born man, uh, who I'm assuming is of, uh, you know, sort of Islamic faith has attacked Jewish people and stabbed them.

[00:52:04] Um, and it's led to yet again, another horrible debate about Islam and Judaism and antisemitism, you know, having a big problem in the UK at the moment. And, um, what was interesting, I was looking through certain comments of certain, um, spaces online.

[00:52:20] And I just saw one Jewish person who then reaffirmed their support for reform, which made me a bit like, really, um, why would you want to support reform who have, and, you know, serious antisemites within their, in their ranks as do the far left at the moment too. You've got the green party, you've got a lot of, um, so the green party in the UK is very similar to Corbynism.

[00:52:41] And you've got a lot of these very far left, these far left figures who are very anti-Israel, which then leads to antisemitism because they don't seem to be able to separate Judaism and Jewish people from the state of Israel. And they seem to get into talking points about Israeli political choices that leads to the, uh, wishing of the destruction of Israel, which is just stupid. And, um, and they can't separate those two.

[00:53:06] And a lot of people on the left seem to suffer from that syndrome, which then leads to, yeah, leads to a lot of problems. Um, so yeah, it is a very messy situation in the UK right now. Politically, there's all sorts of things not quite working out and generally, and mostly it's fueled by people, uh, are not economically happy. Yeah. So back to what we were saying earlier about, um, Orban and Hungary and then what Magyar's trying to do.

[00:53:30] So a lot of the roots of the discontentment, and I think also in the States as well, is because most people just don't feel the benefits of, um, of our societies anymore. You know, um, the, you know, we talked about this before the nineties felt there was a lot of optimism in the nineties. It was a period where it felt like there was a lot of growth, even though there were still financial crashes and things. But towards the end of the nineties, there was this feeling of, oh my God, you know, the new millennium, new times is all great.

[00:53:58] And financially, we're all in a pretty good, reasonably good place. Um, and then post 2008, everything's kind of gone the downward swing and everything just seems to be getting worse and worse. And, and the divide between rich and poor is getting bigger and bigger. And then, you know, and so on. And, and it's, um, not good. It's a real messy time right now. Yeah. Uh, really is.

[00:54:19] My, my, my guess would be what you were saying about, you know, um, the issues that, you know, figures like Nigel Farage have for their closeness with Trump and why that's causing, you know, problems for them. Um, I don't, I don't think that'll, my prediction is I don't think they'll have any meaningful impact on his standing when it's time for elections.

[00:54:39] I think people who dislike Trump and find what's happening over here distasteful, you know, I think they'll find a way for whatever sort of domestic reasons, whatever, whatever reasons they want to support, um, a candidate like Farage or, or reform. I think they're going to find a way to do it regardless and they'll, you know, whether it's correct or not, they will separate the two in their mind and feel like, well, I don't support Trump, but Farage is different.

[00:55:08] And that's, they, that's exactly what's going to happen. We had that in the American elections where, oh, I supported Trump on economics, but I didn't support him on immigration. I mean, it's not like, oh, well, you know, it is. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's, it's, you find a way to justify it in their mind. Whatever they need to. It won't, it won't stop. If they, if they want to vote that way, they will find a way to do it. Yeah. Yeah, indeed.

[00:55:30] And, uh, so yeah, I, definitely, uh, that whole strain of, uh, political thinking is not died with all ban, uh, sadly. It will continue to haunt us for many years to come. Um, yeah. And that's the thing. I mean, I think it was, it was, it was, it was the corruption, just years of that, that I think really did him in, you know, that is the reason. And if he just sort of, I think you can make the same argument for MAGA here.

[00:55:59] If, I mean, you could do the, you could do the anti-immigrant stuff all you want and the blood and soil nationalism all you want. If you just keep the economy going well and yet, you know, don't flaunt that corruption in our faces so much, you can, you can get away with it to a large degree here. Yeah. Yeah. Indeed. And to some extent they are, but yeah, yeah. That's a whole interesting topic, isn't it? But it's, yeah, I think, I think this is it. I think people ultimately vote with their wallet. They're feeling the, and they're, you know, they're feeling financial pain.

[00:56:29] They're going to blame someone for it. So, yeah. And certainly, yeah, in UK politics right now, that is a very big issue. So. That's another thing too, the whole, you know, the, the anxieties and everything that I think people in Europe had, that there would be some sort of like concerted American covert action effort to like bring down the European union and stuff. They're not, they're not, they're not, they're not doing, they're not doing any of that shit.

[00:56:56] Whether they want to is one thing they can't. This is their strain of Christian nationalism. That's what that is. It's sort of this wishful thinking, this nonsense talking points about like trying to make it out that, you know, um, it's sort of where that's where the racism kind of sometimes comes from. It comes to this sort of religious position where they see like Muslim immigrants as a problem. They see Jewish immigrants as a problem. And so they think they, so you get these lines occasionally, like, oh, America's a Christian

[00:57:24] nation or Britain's a Christian nation or whatever country is a Christian nation that comes out quite often with those kinds of people. And that's sort of the way they justify their racism. Um, and it, and it's, it's, you know, um, yeah. So, oh dear. So yeah, we're not going to see that go anytime soon. Yeah. Okay. Let's take a break and we'll be back with more.

[00:58:01] Right. Well, uh, let us now move to our final story of the episode today. So, uh, we've had two CIA officers who have been killed in Mexico and obviously there's been an awful lot of discussion about this. So Matt, I'll hand us over to you. So as you said, uh, two weeks ago, a vehicle crashed in the mountains of Chihuahua in Northern Mexico. Four people were killed, two Mexican officials and two Americans. Within days, U S officials privately confirmed what Mexican authorities were careful not to say publicly.

[00:58:31] The Americans were CIA officers returning from a joint operation with Mexican forces to dismantle clandestine methamphetamine labs, uh, up in the mountains. Uh, the CIA has declined to comment. What followed was a carefully managed diplomatic awkwardness. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said her cabinet had no prior knowledge that foreign agents were operating in Chihuahua.

[00:58:56] A significant claim because Mexico's national security law explicitly bars foreign agents from operating on Mexican soil without federal authorization. One of the dead Americans had entered the country as a tourist. The other used a diplomatic passport. Scheinbaum threatened a formal reprimand and summoned the governor of Chihuahua and the state attorney general to testify in Mexico City. But as of this week, she's pulled back.

[00:59:25] Uh, Kleinbaum called it a quote, exceptional case, and she hopes it doesn't happen again and signals she wants to move on with no formal rupture between the U S and Mexico. The crash though opens a window onto something bigger since the Trump administration designated dozens of drug organizations as foreign terrorist or as foreign terrorist groups. Washington has steadily shifted the cartel fight toward the CIA and the Pentagon with a heavier

[00:59:51] footprint and more sophisticated tools than the DEA ever brought to bear. The question raised by Chihuahua isn't really whether U S intelligence operates in Mexico. It's what the expanded mandate looks like on the ground and where Mexican sovereignty ends and American operational necessity begins. Both governments for now seem to prefer those questions unanswered. Chris, what'd you think about this? Yeah. Um, so this has been a very interesting story.

[01:00:20] So I'll first of all say just, obviously it's been a very sad loss for the CIA and for the officers, family, friends, and colleagues, you know, when CIA officers are deployed abroad, there's always a risk of harm, whether that be by enemy action or in some cases a terrible accident like this case. Um, you know, since the war on terror deaths and threats of all CIA officers and staff has gone up dramatically. And these two particular officers will be the 141st and 142nd officers killed in action. Um, and in the future, they'll be marked on the CIA memorial wall.

[01:00:49] There's been a lot of discussion online about, you know, because these two are CIA officers, um, and they were killed. There's been a lot of speculation and conspiracy theories that have followed as well as this diplomatic spat that you've just described between the U S and Mexico. Um, so from my understanding of the known facts of case, these two officers were acting as liaisons and sort of non-active partners with Mexican authorities. And, um, I do find the Mexican government's claim that they did not know about this. Interesting. I think it's bullshit. I think it's bullshit too.

[01:01:19] I think it is. Um, I'll, I'll put out my little, um, my various sort of, uh, scenarios of what it could be. So it could be the Mexican government was just not informed of the, uh, of this for operational security as one possibility. It could be that the agency, the CIA officers were working with in Mexico failed to inform the government as possible. It could be that the CIA itself failed to inform the Mexican government or the Mexican government

[01:01:48] is lying and trying to save face because the U S and being seen to cooperate with the U S is politically unpopular at the moment. And I suspect that is the explanation, but I could be wrong. What are your thoughts on that? Yeah. I think Claudia Sheinbaum saying, oh, there's, there's CIA officers in Chihuahua, Mexico. I think that's bullshit. I think there is no, there is no way, uh, that this was going on without host nation approval and, and authorization and cooperation.

[01:02:16] It's very clear that, um, uh, elements of U S Northern command. There's a new joint interagency task force counter cartel that has been, um, stood up at Davis Monthon, um, air force base. Uh, the FBI has a counter cartel or a counter narcotics, uh, fusion center. That's in, I believe it's in, I believe it's in El Paso.

[01:02:41] I think off the top of my head, um, uh, John Radcliffe, the CIA director, uh, within, since Trump coming back into office, since he was, since, yeah, since, since Radcliffe has been director, uh, created in America's encounter narcotics mission center. Right. So there's, there's a, there's a much greater emphasis on combating these cartels and other, you know, transnational criminal organizations in, in Latin America.

[01:03:09] And I, we've had reports too, that the CIA has been, um, flying surveillance drones inside Mexican airspace, um, support of this, uh, the, um, uh, operation that Mexican forces executed, uh, recently, um, not too long ago to kill, um, El Mencho, uh, uh, leading member of the, uh, Jalisco new generation cartel was executed, um, with the support of American intelligence

[01:03:39] and possibly some sort of JSOC presence on the ground. Right. So it's, it's very clear that the IC and JSOC, perhaps under title 50 covert action authorities are doing stuff in Mexico and the whole sort of conceit that the Mexicans didn't know. And, oh my God, there's that, that is, that is, that is, I'll say it again, that is bullshit. Um, she's trying to save face and cover her ass because yeah, it's, it's politically touchy

[01:04:07] and, um, and unpopular. But, you know, that said, I, I have, we, we talked about this, uh, about a year ago when Trump came back into office and there was a lot of concern about, you know, perhaps doing drone strikes or more kinetic actions, unilateral kinetic actions inside Mexico. I was concerned about that. I said, I am not in theory against the CIA and JSOC taking the gloves off and getting more aggressive against the cartels.

[01:04:36] It would just depend on what that action looks like. Right. Are we drone striking people inside Mexico? Yeah. Which would not be cool. Yeah. Do we have a carrier group off the coast of Sinaloa bombing drug warehouses and stuff with F-18s? No. If CIA advisors are in Mexico with the sort of tacit or unacknowledged, um, cooperation

[01:05:01] and approval of the Mexican government, I think that's, I had no issue with that. I think it's good. You know, I think how so far, how this has been conducted, I think it's, it's, it's, it's what CIA and JSOC should be doing. I mean, these cartels, I honestly, I support the designation of them as far as terrorist organizations, especially groups like, um, like the, uh, Jalisco, um, cartel.

[01:05:25] I mean, these are groups that have caused unimaginable amounts of suffering and death in Mexico to say nothing of the United States. And yeah, if we're going to take the gloves off and get serious about fighting these guys, great. Um, it's obviously unfortunate that, you know, this accident, um, brought that to the fore a bit, but yeah, the, the position that Mexico city wouldn't be aware of this, that, that, that's, that's just not true. There's, there's, there's no way. Yeah.

[01:05:55] And, and as far as I'm aware, the rules of the game traditionally are that Mexico leads everything and any CIA presence is liaison or observer. Um, unless there's, obviously as you just talked about, there's some sanctioned, like special forces joint operation, but the Mexicans would have to lead that, wouldn't they? Is that right? Well, at least that's the traditional rules of the game. Right. And I see no reason to think why that isn't the case here, you know, what sort of, what sort of liaison or advisory capacity, how you define that, you know, in the moment, you

[01:06:24] know, can, can give you a lot of latitude, I guess, you know, but I, I, I see no reason to think that the CIA or JSOC are just doing their own thing and not just not cooperating with, with, with, with the Mexicans. I don't think that's the case at all. And, um, one other thing as well about Mexico, I mean, obviously it's always, always been a hotbed of spies, particularly Russian spies. So, you know, especially during the cold war, um, because Mexico's obviously it's close proximity to us makes it a great place to stage operations.

[01:06:54] And, um, and also it's been a great place because, uh, there's always been political tensions between the United States and Latin America. And so Russia could exploit that for their benefit. Um, also Mexico is a good place to, uh, meet with American spies working for Russia so they could, you know, do debriefs and things. So the cold war may be over, but Russian intelligence is still very active in Mexico. So, um, there's definitely going to be operations going on about that too.

[01:07:21] Um, but the whole drug cartel thing is, is a big shift for the CIA because it's all sort of new territory for them. Previously it was the DEA who dealt with that and it was the special operations division who are there kind of like worldwide intelligence arm who particularly led the way on operations. Um, and there's a really good book called hunting LaRue by Elaine Shannon that kind of goes into detail about the DEA special operations division and about one of their operations to hunt down and arrest a drug runner, an arms trafficker called Paul LaRue.

[01:07:51] Um, and yeah, really interesting book. And I'd love to at some point do some episodes on the special operations division of DEA because it's a very, as far as my understanding, they're very effective. Um, and they have a presence everywhere and they're, you know, on par with the CIA with their reach and things. So, uh, yeah. Uh, yeah. I mean, in terms of counter-narcotics and everything, um, HSI has had a big footprint in, in Mexico

[01:08:17] as well, which if any folks are unfamiliar with that acronym, HSI stands for Homeland Security, uh, Investigations, which is actually, it's, it's, it's an arm of ice. Um, and they like my LinkedIn at the moment. Oh, that's right. When you were coming over here, you texted me that right away. I was like, why is HSI looking at my LinkedIn? And I'm like, show up at passport control and you'll find out, Bob.

[01:08:40] Um, text me, uh, if you need, you know, um, no, but, uh, so Homeland Security Investigations is, is an arm of ice. There's actually two main operational divisions. There's ERO or enforcement and removal operations, which when you think of ice, those are the guys you're thinking of. Um, HSI traditionally has, uh, countered, um, transnational organized crime, human trafficking,

[01:09:09] internet crime, CSAM, that sort of stuff, like stuff that we want federal law enforcement to be, um, investigating. And they've had a, they've had a big, um, footprint in Mexico for a while. I believe I saw, uh, somewhere not too long ago that their, uh, footprint inside Mexico was larger than the DEA's. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So there we go. So yeah, no, definitely something to keep an eye on. Um, um, but with regards to these two, um, unfortunate CIA officers.

[01:09:35] So as far as I know, they, they died in this car accident, which resulted from driving on hazardous mountain roads at night. And obviously because of the proximities, this operation that was counter-narcotics base, everybody's imaginations run wild with them. And they figured that the cartel ran them off the road. But as far as I'm aware from, I think that we've seen that is definitely not the case. It was an accident, but, uh. Yeah. I think this is very simply in what it purports to be.

[01:10:02] Um, CIA officers were embedded with, uh, Mexican officials in the state of Chihuahua on this operation. There was an accident. Um, yeah. Yeah. Sadly, these things do happen from time to time. So, um, yeah. So again, you know, uh, my sort of, uh, condolences to the families of those officers. It's not cool. Um, so yeah. Yeah. So we shall wrap up there. Unless there's anything else you'd like to add? No. Yeah. Cool.

[01:10:31] Well, um, thank you everybody for listening today. So, uh, we will not be doing an episode next week. We're taking a small production break, but we will be returning on May the 16th. Um, and we will have a brand new episode for you. Manuel Bewarder. Yeah. So that'll be very interesting. So thank you very much for listening. So if you're enjoying this podcast, don't forget you can support us in a few ways. So first of all, you can become a friend of the podcast on Patreon. Just go to patreon.com forward slash secrets and spies.

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[01:12:56] Have you got a Memorial Day weekend or something coming up soon? Or what have you got in America? Yeah, that's not for, that's not for a couple of weeks. Let's see. When is that? Um, we got Mother's Day on the 10th. I got to work on that. Lucky mothers. Um, that's the 25th, May, May 25th. So we got, we got. Okay. So that's a bit early for Mother's Day then, but yeah, but there we go. And he can help us. I think she has one.

[01:13:24] Well, yeah, your mum has one, but, um, all the mothers out there, there are a lot of mothers out there who don't have one. So, you know. I know, they need one. We should change that. So there we go. And send us a photo of your mother with the cup. Um, and we'll, we'll, you know, if you want us to, we'll, um, well, well, we do use Twitter now, but, um, what's the, I call it bleating because we use blue sky. I don't know what the word for tweeting on blue sky is. I say bleating because it's. I think, I think at first people were trying to, they wanted to say it was a skeet and I'm like, I'm not, I'm not calling it that.

[01:13:54] There's no way I'm not doing that. Yeah. Yeah, it does. I'm not calling it. But anyway, well, that's a debate for another episode. What's a cool blue sky post. So there we go. But, um, we are also on all the socials. So blue sky, Instagram, Facebook, and we are still on spoutable. We haven't used spoutable in a year, so apologies to anybody who's following us on spoutable. Why are we on spoutable? I don't know. It seemed a good idea at the time. Uh, maybe we will retire our spoutable page because. Concentrate our efforts. We should.

[01:14:22] And we are, we are, uh, much to my regret, we are still on Twitter, but Twitter actually is still a really good source for information for up, uh, for sourcing information for these podcasts. I still find our network that is still on Twitter, still one of the best informed networks that we have. Um, so. Yeah. And there's a lot of people. There are. There are. We don't pay for it. Um, so I feel a bit better, but I'm sure our engagement is still helping Elon Musk be

[01:14:50] the richest man in the world, which is very frustrating. But there we go. We do live in, in a difficult time. So, uh, I guess we have to pick which battle we want it. But there we go. But there we are. So I'm not buying a Tesla anytime soon. So I hope that makes up for it. You know, I'll need to plant a tree at some point, but there we go. So, and that may balance things out. But there we are. All right. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for listening. And we will catch you on the next episode. And thank you for watching. Take care. Bye for now. Take care.

[01:15:32] Thanks for listening. This is Secrets and Spies.