[00:00:00] Announcer: Due to the themes of this podcast, listener discretion is advised. Lock your doors, close the blinds, change your passwords. This is Secrets and Spies. Secrets and Spies is a podcast that dives into the world of espionage, terrorism, geopolitics, and intrigue. This podcast is produced and hosted by Chris Carr. [00:00:37] Chris Carr: On today's podcast, I'm joined by Dr. Taras Kuzio. We reflect on the third anniversary of Russia's war on Ukraine. Dr. Kuzio kind of gives us an update on where Ukraine's at in its defense against Russia, and we look at the ongoing peace negotiations and do our best to sort of navigate where we're at with that. So hope you find this episode interesting and informative. Thank you very much for listening, and thank you for watching. Take care. [00:01:02] Announcer: The opinions expressed by guests on Secrets and Spies do not necessarily represent those of the producers and sponsors of this podcast. [00:01:26] Chris: Dr. Kuzio, welcome back to the podcast. For the benefit of new listeners, uh, please, could you just tell us a little bit about yourself? [00:01:32] Dr. Taras Kuzio: Yeah. Um, I'm, I'm, I'm British of Ukrainian background. I've been covering, um, the former Soviet Union and then from '91 sort of Ukraine, Russia, and that region since probably the mid-eighties. Um, the, uh, um, I've kind of got a number of different hats, academic, um, journalistic, sometimes consultant. Um, in the last few years I've been a professor at the National University of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in Kyiv. Of course, most of that, uh, lecturing now is done online because of the war. Um, and, um, currently I am, um, uh, with, with different colleagues. Um, one book we, we've just completed for, uh, a British publisher on the four, what we call the four roots of the Russia's war against Ukraine. And then the second book is an edited collection with another colleague, um, about how Russia has become a fascist state. Um, we're trying to push the envelope as it were. You, uh, academics are very conservative with a small C. Um, and they don't want to move into uncharted territories, as it were. But we believe that, uh, Russia has gone down that path in the last few years. So where we've, we've compiled about 10 authors to, to push that case. So those are the two kind of projects I'm currently working on. But you know, sadly the Kremlin and Putin will keep us all occupied for many years to come. [00:03:02] Chris: Yes. Uh, Putin will definitely keep us busy. Um, I think he will until, uh, he goes the way of Stalin, I think, which is my prediction, but, uh. [00:03:12] Dr. Kuzio: Um, well, we can only, uh, hope, um, that he goes sooner, but, um, but we shall see. Yeah, I mean the, the thing about that is that he's got no sons. So, um, what happens after Putin is anybody's guess. [00:03:26] Chris: Yeah. Yeah. I think that's the billion-dollar question. Is it because he's made no effort to create a successor, so there's gonna be no kind of, um, proper process, it's just gonna be, um, chaos, or it isn't it? [00:03:37] Dr. Kuzio: Well, there's no honor amongst thieves, so, um, so there's gonna be a big grab for resources and probably a fight at the top, and it's gonna be not very, uh, peaceful, shall we say. But that's, that's all. Something to look forward to. [00:03:50] Chris: Indeed, indeed. Well, um, I just wanted to kind of get an update on the status of the war. I think if we could avoid the peace process just at this point, because we're gonna talk about that in a short while, but it'd be a good idea just for us to get a kinda status of where things are at, where Ukraine currently stands in its defense against the Russian invasion, especially as we're at the third anniversary now. [00:04:11] Dr. Kuzio: Yeah, I mean, this is a, obviously a very big question, and you do unfortunately, get, I think, um, sensationalist headlines sometimes even in prestigious publications, which I subscribe to, like The Economist, um, that, you know, the front lines about to collapse and such, like. I mean, I think all of these are, are a bit of hyperbole. Um, the, the reality is that the Russian Army has shown in the last few years that not only is it not the second best army in the world, but that it's unable to undertake, large-scale offensives. Uh, Putin's goals of, of conquering Ukraine, forget that. Uh, and also Putin hasn't been able to, uh, capture any large Ukrainian cities, which is amazing because Kharkiv, uh, the second largest city in Ukraine's, only 30 kilometers from the Russian border. Um, on the other hand, Ukraine has captured Russian territory. Um, and, you know, Putin's keeps imposing deadlines when they should be kicked out, and these deadlines always fail. So, um, this is, um, so that's a one reflection. Second. Second is that, um, the, uh, Western pundits and Western experts and policymakers seem to not quite understand that if Russia as a whole is a mafia state, and this is the way, uh, US diplomats have called it since 2010, you, any of your listeners can, can find that WikiLeaks cable on, on the internet. Um, if that's the case, then that would've affected the Russian Army as well. It wouldn't have excluded the Russian Army. And so it's not surprising that, that, uh, that highly corrupt state of Russia as a whole is also impacted on the Russian security services and the Russian Army. And that cannot be simply resolved in a couple of years, even if it, Putin wanted to, and he's shown no inclination to do that. So that's also impacted on the state of the war. Um, the inability of the Russian Army really to kind of function properly, it's just a meat grinder. Um, we are talking about a prediction of by May of this year, so in a couple of months that, uh, Russia will have suffered 1 million, I just wanna repeat that for 1 million casualties. [00:06:28] Chris: Wow. [00:06:29] Dr. Kuzio: Um, in three years, um, that's, of course killed and wounded, but as we know, most Russian wounded are simply left to die. Um, NATO doctrine, Ukrainian doctrine is to retrieve the wounded. And, and, and most cases, they're patched up and, and saved. In the Russian case, forget it. Um, they, they'd be happier to be captured as wounded by Ukrainian soldiers, and then they will be patched up. But the Russians don't give a damn about them. [00:06:56] Chris: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. [00:06:56] Dr. Kuzio: Um, so the, the Russian Army hasn't really improved, uh, militarily. It's shown its, uh, weapons to be not very good quality, hence the decline in, in exports of Russian military equipment. India seems, a big importer since Soviet era, as moving away from Russian imports. Um, the Russian officer corps remains corrupt, uh, cynical, uh, doesn't give a damn about human costs, and keeps sending these, uh, these Russians, untrained Russian soldiers into combat. There are even videos on social media of Russian wounded on crutches going into combat. [00:07:39] Chris: Wow. [00:07:39] Dr. Kuzio: Can you believe it? Um, so all of that hasn't changed. Um, this means that what we have, um, and what's being called a, an attritional war or a kind of a grinding war. Um, it it's very difficult to launch kind of major attacks when the skies are dominated by, uh, drones, different types of drones, um, missiles. Um, a lot of, probably most of the casualties that Ukraine is undertaking is not by hand to hand combat. It's through this kind of different types of technology. I think the, the, one of the ways Ukraine is keeping itself as an advantage over Russia because let's remember, of course, Russia's got a much bigger population and doesn't give a damn about the, the size of its casualties is that Ukrainians using this modern, modern warfare, including drones, uh, to kill quite a lot of the Russian casualties. Um, and that of course saves Ukrainian lives. Um, and makes it less kind of deadly for the Ukrainian side. And it kind of evens up as it were, the, the, the two numbers of both sides, because Ukrainian's not sending, as it were, troops into battle, like in the good old days, shall we say. Um, I think another, another factor here is that, um, the, uh, Ukrainian, um, because Ukraine's a different society to Russia. It's a democracy, not a not author authoritarian dictatorship. Um, you have a lot of innovation taking place in Ukraine, unlike in Russia where the regime looks, um, negatively at anything independent. So there isn't really like private, small, private companies. Civil society, volunteer groups don't really exist in the Russian case, it's a vertical structure. In the Ukrainian case, you've got hundreds, I think there's over 300 now, small companies innovating and producing different types of equipment. Uh, this is done either by, uh, on the basis of voluntary collections of money that they work on, or what's increasingly happened is Western countries, and I think Denmark here led the way, Western countries are providing, uh, cash either from government resources or from the frozen Russian assets to, um, to Ukraine, which then builds up this rebuilds its military industrial complex to produce weapons at home. And so something like now about 40% of Ukraine's military equipment is produced inside Ukraine. Um, one of the things I don't understand is why Ukraine is so successful at attacking, not only refineries, oil refineries in Russia, but also attacking Russian factories that produce weapons. Whereas you never hear of Russia being successful doing that in Ukraine. So they must be more camouflage and secretive, maybe underground or whatever, or, or maybe it's just smaller, a lot smaller than they are in, in Russia where they're these big Soviet monsters, as it were, which are easier targets. Um, so a lot, a lot of, so that, that allows Ukraine to, I think, keep the edge over Russia on technolo, technological advances. And that's important and has an impact on the West as well, on Western armies because, um, you know, uh, the whole process of producing new military equipment in Britain, America, and elsewhere takes sometimes years. And, and this war has shown that you don't have years. Um, you literally have to adapt within the space of a month or two months. Um, and Ukraine has the edge in that because these small private companies can do that. They can, uh, they can send equipment to the front line, it could be tested. Sometimes there are, there are actually quite a few Western companies, military companies, um, including from Silicon Valley in the US that are working with these Ukrainian companies to test, to use the battlefield to test their equipment. Um, and then that helps to improve them. I mean, because this of this is of course the best testing ground in the world, right? [00:11:54] Chris: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. [00:11:55] Dr. Kuzio: Um, and so that, that I think is also a factor. Now, um, this kind of leads onto the peace process, but we'll leave that to later, but, the, um, one of the other myths that's been around for a while, but now Europe is finally kind of, um, pushing back. And we saw that with, uh, President Macron and his meeting with Trump this week, um, that actually the European, the Europeans, including the British here, uh, so the EU and Britain, um, have actually given more military and non-military aid to Ukraine than the United States. So the Trump myth, his figures are all over the place. They're, they're completely exaggerated, anyway. Um, the myth that the US was, you know, giving all this stuff and the Europeans were laggards is simply not true. But anyway, a huge proportion of the so-called US money for Ukraine was kept in the US to to increase military production. Um, you know, the US sends its own stockpiles to Ukraine, and then those stockpiles are rebuilt by the factories producing new equipment. Um, so, um, so that's another, another factor. Um, the EU and Britain yesterday on, on the, on the, on the 24th of February, the third anniversary of the invasion, uh, announced new major, uh, uh, kind of assistance packages for, for military aid to Ukraine. So I mean, that I think is going to continue because the Europeans, um, and the British see this as an exist existential threat to their, to themselves. [00:13:32] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:13:32] Dr. Kuzio: Unlike say we, shall we say the Trump administration. So I think that will continue. So the question I think, and this is where I finish really in this very long answer, the question is gonna be, can domestic production in Ukraine, coupled with British and European support, military support, be enough to offset, uh, the case if the US pulls out of continuing to send military aid to Ukraine? Um, and I, I think that's should be okay, but certainly, uh, what we need to remember, uh, and this is something that hasn't really come out in the US-Russian negotiations, is that, um, Russia isn't in a good place. [00:14:18] Chris: Yeah. [00:14:18] Dr. Kuzio: Um, and the idea that somehow Russia's, you know, going to walk over Ukraine if America pulls out, is simply wrong. Um, for one thing, uh, the, the scale of the, the military, the amount of military equipment that's been destroyed in the last three years is mind boggling. It's not just the casualties, the equipment, you know, 10,000 tanks. Mm. Isn't that more than what all of the Europe has got got in its own arsenal? Um, so Russia has been relying on Soviet stocks. Those Soviet stocks are gonna run out by the end of this year. So, uh, Russia's already kind of, um, uh, having problems with finding a sufficient military equipment like tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and such like. And there's even hilarious footage on social media that the Russians are using golf boogies. [00:15:16] Chris: Oh, wow. [00:15:17] Dr. Kuzio: Uh, motorbikes and wait for it, donkeys. Um, and, [00:15:23] Chris: That's been a while. [00:15:24] Dr. Kuzio: so Russia, by the end of this year, is not gonna be in good position, especially if sanctions are tightened on energy. Mm-hmm. Um, the, the inability to offset destroyed equipment by digging into stockpiles. Um, and also one has to think that this rate of casualties in Russia, which we're talking 1,500 to 2,300 a day, is simply not sustainable. Um, there does seem to have been the last few months a decline in the number of Russians volun, uh, agreeing to be mobilized. I mean, they're mobilized on the basis of getting large payments. So then it's not an a state mobilization, it's voluntary. Um, volun volunteers coming forward, as it were. But that number is now less than the number killed and wounded every month. So Russia's say, for example, 20, 25,000 each month are now volunteering to join the war. Um, that's not enough to offset the, the 40,000 who are casualties every month. So that's, that's a growing tendency as well against, against Russia. And then we have all the economic and financial issues with Russian sanctions, the state of the Russian economy, which I won't go into, but that also is another factor. So the idea that somehow it's Ukraine on the ropes, not Russia is simply not true. Um, and um, yes, Russia's getting support from North Korea, but those North Korean troops haven't shown themselves to be any good in course. [00:16:59] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:17:00] Dr. Kuzio: They are simply not trained for this kind of warfare. Uh, they haven't, North Korea hasn't fought a war for 70 years. Um, and, um, and, and yes, Iran is sending some military equipment, but you know, one has to wonder to what degree this Iranian-Russian relationship is, is that strong? I mean, after all, Iran abstained at the United Nations on the vote on the 24th of February. And Iran, after all, is after one big thing, and that's nuclear weapons. And one wonders where the Putin will go down that road. So, um, it's, it's a mixed picture. But considering that at the beginning of the invasion three years ago, uh, both the Kremlin and most Western experts and policymakers all believed that Russia would, would win the war very quickly. Uh. Well, that's not been the case. [00:17:52] Chris: Yes, indeed. I mean, yeah, it, one of the in, uh, interesting things is, um, the fall of the Assad regime in, [00:18:00] Dr. Kuzio: Yes. [00:18:00] Chris: uh, in Syria because, uh, Russia have been providing protection for that regime. And clearly, um, Ukraine is taking their resources. And from what I've seen of the reporting, Putin seemed willing to sacrifice Syria because Ukraine is so important to him. It's very interesting. [00:18:17] Dr. Kuzio: Well, it's, um, it's a, it's been a kind of a drawn out process. I mean, the first example of that was really in the South Caucasus where, where Russian, so Russia withdrew a lot of its peacekeepers from the Azerbaijan-Armenian border, uh, Because it needed those troops as cannon fodder in Ukraine. Um, and, and, and, you know, and that is a reflection of Russia's declining sphere of influence in, in, in, you know, yet, in, in the vote on the 24th of February of this year, um, only one former Soviet state Belarus voted with Russia, only one. The others abstained. That's already so even so-called traditional pro-Russian countries in Central Asia and Armenia did not vote with Russia. Um, so Russia, um, and Russia didn't really help Armenia, which was a traditional pro-Russian ally in the South Caucasus. And, and now, uh, Prime Minister Pashinyan in, in Armenia is moving westwards is, is, is saying to hell with both the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization. I'm heading west. So, uh, Russia's lo, Russia already lost out there as it were because Russia has two, two military bases in, in Armenia, and it will, it's, uh, Russian Border Troops actually patrolled Armenia's border. That's, those border guards are gone. So that, but in the Syrian case, yes. Um, Russia was very instrumental in turning the Civil War round in 2015 where Assad looked like he was about to lose. Um, and this is, um, not only a defeat for, uh, Russia in, because Syria was, um, a base for the Soviet Union back in, back to the seventies. And this is not just a Russian base, it was a major Soviet base going back to the 1970s. But it's also, you can imagine if you are studying Beijing, what you are thinking about, what is this country, Russia, you know, it's our ally, but it's a bit of a basket case, isn't it? It can't even defend itself anywhere. [00:20:24] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:20:24] Dr. Kuzio: Um, uh, but also this is a major, major expansion of Turkish influence. Um, I mean, Turkey was already battling pro-Russian forces in Libya on behalf of the UN-recognized government in Libya. Um, and then Turkey now has overthrown the Assad regime in Syria, something that President Obama didn't have the courage to do back in, you know, 2012, 2013. I mean, I think that shows to what degree the West has been wronged to, as it were, um, kind of ignore Turkey and to have very bad relations with Turkey. This is a major player in the region. Um, and it's certainly gonna continue to have major influence, um, in Syria just as it also his influence in the South Caucasus is growing because of the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Turkey. And also Turkey is gonna be very important for us, uh, because Azerbaijani oil and gas, which is one of the countries helping to overcome the no longer reliance on Russian energy. So it's sort of Norway, Azerbaijan, um, maybe the US with LNG. Those three countries are repla are replacing Russian energy supplies to Europe. Well, that Azerbaijani oil and gas has to come through Turkey. I. Again, um, into, into Europe. So, so I think, yes, this, these are major geopolitical ramifications. Um, and um, and Russia was unable to basically do everything at once. It's put all its eggs in, as it were, into one basket. And that is fighting Ukraine where there's estimates of anything between 400 to 450,000 Russian troops, which means that there's, there are no Russian troops really on the, on the new NATO border, which is Finland, Russia. Um, so, uh, so yes, I think there's no question that there's, that the loss of Syria is a, is is both a prestigious factor, isn't it? I mean, it's not just because, um, uh, when Russia went into Syria in 2015, it was a year after Crimea in Ukraine and both of these kind of projects, the Ukrainian Crimean one and the Syrian one in 2014, 2015 were, you could write the kind of title for those was Russia's Back. You know, Russia being the Soviet Union is back in action, we're back as a great power. Well, it doesn't look that good today, does it? [00:23:01] Chris: Mm, no. One other thing I was gonna ask as well, do you have any sort of insight on Britain's pact with Ukraine now? Because Britain seems to be taking this very seriously, which is a positive thing. [00:23:11] Dr. Kuzio: I wouldn't say any, any, any, any insight. But I mean, I, I mean, I, but I think it's not surprising in many ways, firstly, because, uh, Britain is so different to the continent. I mean, there are no pro-Russian forces in Britain. I mean, I mean, you know, Farage kind of plays around with it. Um, leader of the Reform Party plays around with it to some degree, but, but it, but you know, the, the kind of populist nationalist right on the Conservative Party, the Brexiters, even they're anti-Russian. Um, so I, I, I, I don't think Starmer is that surprising that Starmer has gone down that path. Also, um, this is a reflection of the fact that in the last three years, Britain was one of the leaders of, shall we say, the radical camp in, in the West, um, on the war. Um, if you had the sort of the moderate camp that was always worried about escalation, nuclear war, which was German, Scholz and Biden, um, and they were always kind of in favor of, shall we say, a drip, drip supply of weapons to Ukraine. You know, enough for Ukraine not to be defeated, but not enough to win. [00:24:16] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:24:16] Dr. Kuzio: Then the British, the British were in the same group as the Scandinavians, uh, the Baltic states, Poland, um, Romania, the Czech Republic. So that was kind of the British group already. Um, and, um, uh, and, and, and which was that no, our goal should be not only, uh, helping Ukraine, our goal should be defeating Russia. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. So the, the British were already talking about the need to militarily defeat Russia. But that phrase of militarily defeating Russia was never said by Scholz and Biden. So, uh, Starmer's kind of, in many ways just continuing the, the Conservative policy. Um, it's ironic of course for two reasons, because the British, um, military was, was depleted under the Tories. It's usually Labour that's to blame for that. And it was under the Tories. Um, and secondly, um, you know, we had Brexit. Britain was supposed to stand high in the world, independent and alone. Um, but now it seems we're, uh, back with Europe on security issues. [00:25:24] Chris: Yes. [00:25:25] Dr. Kuzio: Um, because we can't really do much on our own. So I and I, and I think the, the one thing that does seem to be there is that there's, uh, going back to my comment about joint military production. Sort of, uh, Ukraine's, a testing ground for new military equipment, that certainly seems to be the case with the British as well as other countries. Um, this new, uh, Star Wars-style laser, uh, beams that are, are that the British have, British and Ukrainians have been developing to down drones, for example. Um, and it's very cheap, uh, compared to the kind of the missiles used by the Patriot systems and others, which are very expensive. Um, these laser beams are dirt cheap, uh, to bring down, uh, drones and if, from what I understand, the British have given their prototypes to Ukraine to be tested on the battlefield, and of course that's a win-win situation for both sides. [00:26:28] Chris: Yes, indeed, indeed. Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back. Well, um, I'm gonna transition us into, um, the peace negotiations and, um, so I, I, obviously they're a bit messy, so I'm gonna do my best to sort of navigate these choppy waters. [00:27:00] Dr. Kuzio: Welcome to Trump. [00:27:03] Chris: So, um, I'm gonna start with the Trump administration wants to make a deal with Ukraine for its precious minerals. What are your thoughts on, on this? [00:27:12] Dr. Kuzio: Well, I, I'd be, I would be very surprised if, if President Zelensky agrees to this, um, because it's a very bad deal. But, you know, um, US is a powerful player. Um, the, the plus would be the US would be on the ground, as it were. I think another factor why Ukraine will not, um, probably go down this path is that there's no trust, uh, for the Trump administration. [00:27:39] Chris: Hmm. [00:27:39] Dr. Kuzio: Because there's no trust for the US. I mean, uh, the Budapest Memorandum, which was signed in 1994, supposedly gave security assurances by British, um, the Russians and the Americans. I think the Chinese and the French were kind of sat on the sidelines because it was the nuclear powers in return for Ukraine giving up then the third largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world. In 1992, Ukraine had more nuclear weapons than China. Um, Ukraine got these, these kind of watery security guarantees from, from, from the West. Of course, in 2014, Russia, uh, infringed those guarantees. Um, the Prime Minister Cameron in Britain and President Obama in America ignored them. Um, Ukraine was left on its own. Worse still, Obama continued to veto the supply of weapons, uh, demanded by the US Congress to Ukraine. [00:28:39] Chris: Hmm. [00:28:40] Dr. Kuzio: So, um, this is not a kind of a party political issue vis-a-vis the United States. I mean, we had a Democratic president and now we have a Republican. So I, I don't think there's much trust and hence Ukraine would demand, um, in return for signing something like this minerals agreement, it would demand ironclad security guarantees, and I doubt whether Trump would, would agree to those. Mm. Um, and anyway, would you, would you, even the final analysis, agree, would you buy a secondhand car from Trump? I mean, uh, I mean, I mean this is the problem. He's just, the way he operates, I wouldn't trust him. So why would Ukrainians, um, the Europe, there's been reports coming up in the last day or two that the Europeans are proposing their own version of a, a mineral agreement, um, which of course is more, uh, to the benefit of the Europeans and Ukrainians. So I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine goes with that one rather than the US. [00:29:39] Chris: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. [00:29:39] Dr. Kuzio: Um, again, it's difficult to understand Trump's supposedly fantastic negotiating stance when just on the 24th of February, the US votes together with Russia, Belarus, in North Korea against the resolution condemning the invasion. I mean, how is that gonna endear the Ukrainians to, to Trump and to the US? So I, I, I'd be surprised if it goes down that path. I mean, the, one of the things that nobody talks about is that quite a lot of these, I don't think all of them, but quite a lot proportion of these raw min raw materials, these rare materials or rare minerals, are in occupied Russian territory. So does that mean that the Americans are gonna help the Ukraines kick the Russians out? [00:30:26] Chris: That's a good question. [00:30:28] Dr. Kuzio: Yes. Um, I mean, nobody can of, I mean, for Trump it's just dollars. You know, he's, he is, he's in heaven. He's looking at the dollar amounts. But, but yeah, I mean, what do you do about those? And then, and then, if you look at it from the other side, well then the Russians, the Russians are proposing themselves as well to the Americans, you know, do a deal with us on, on rare material, on rare minerals. Um, but if the Americans come in and help the Russians to, uh, mine these rare minerals in occupied territory, the Americans are breaking international law. [00:31:01] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:31:01] Dr. Kuzio: Because this is, this is, this is not allowed international law. I mean, the Russians are already stealing stuff from occupied territories. And if the Americans came in and helped them, my God, what kind of world are we in then? [00:31:13] Chris: Yeah. That, that is a big concern actually because America have been pulling out of certain international bodies, haven't they? Over the last a few weeks. [00:31:19] Dr. Kuzio: Yes. [00:31:19] Chris: And you're starting to wonder, um, yeah, I, I we could speculate this point what, what, um, may or may not be happening, um, behind the scenes with regards to that. [00:31:28] Dr. Kuzio: Well, America has, um, this very, I mean, this may be all thrown out the window, but America has very tough, I think tougher than European legislation, like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. [00:31:38] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:31:39] Dr. Kuzio: Which means that if you are an American company and you undertake corruption abroad, you are liable to be prosecuted at home. So if Americans are breaking the law in Ukraine, working with the Russians to mine these rare minerals they can be prosecuted at home. So they're always gonna be looking over their shoulders. You know, Trump will say, may say, oh, we're gonna cancel this law, but you know, I, it, it's, it's a, it's a dangerous path to go down. [00:32:04] Chris: Indeed. Indeed. Now, um, the beginnings of these negotiations, uh, Pete Hegseth, who's president uh, President Trump's defense secretary, made a rather bold statement a few weeks ago saying that Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal lethal aid to Ukraine. And then he also went on to say that they're ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine. And a pre return, uh, return, sorry, a return to pre-2014 borders. And it just struck me as a bit weird to put those cards down before negotiations have even started. What were your thoughts on, on that? [00:32:37] Dr. Kuzio: Again, um, and this is worthwhile discussing, but as we know, Trump can say one thing in the morning and say something completely contradictory in the evening. Um, mm-hmm. So, um, well, yes, you are right that a negotiation should be a give and take. Uh, and you should hold some cards back and then, you know, kind of negotiate. You give something away, we give something away, you know? And, and it's a kind of a compromise as far as we have seen until now. The Trump administration has not demanded anything from Russia, really. Um, and in any, anyway, the ca there's been one thing I think I've seen where the Trump administration has demanded that, that there should be territorial concessions on both sides. Good. Well, good luck with that, with Putin. I, that's all I can say. [00:33:23] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:33:24] Dr. Kuzio: Um, on the, on these two issues of borders and or territorial loss and NATO membership, um, I think it's a bit unfair to condemn Trump completely because these also existed under Biden. Um, and it's not, I mean, what's basically happened is that the Biden administration camouflaged these and kind of hid them away, whereas the Trump team are out kind of punching in your face with them, as it were. They're, they're, they're slapping your face with them. Um, no US president has supported Ukrainian membership of NATO since Bush. So Obama, uh, Biden, and Trump have all opposed Ukrainian membership of NATO. So this is Democrats and Republicans. It's not just Trump that's done this. The Bush presidency from 2000-2008 was the last kind of major, shall we say, neoconservative, pro-democracy promotion, uh, pro-NATO enlargement administration. That's been a long time ago. So we're talking, you know, what's that, twelve, five, nearly, nearly two decades ago. Um, everybody kind of forgets that. Um, now at the same time, again, going back to this difficulty of, because it's a moving field all the time, we are hearing that the US may be favorable to an idea put forward by Europeans that one angle of this security guarantee could be that if Russia launches a an invasion after a ceasefire, that Ukraine will be automatically brought into NATO. [00:35:01] Chris: Hmm. Interesting idea. Yeah. [00:35:02] Dr. Kuzio: So this would be a major, I, I would think, threat to the Russians that, you know, if you, if you play, okay, fine. If you play, if you do a, basically if you do a repeat of 2022, because we had the peace agreements in 2014, 2015, Russia kind of completely did, many broke, many ceasefires, and then invaded. If you do that again down the road after a ceasefire, then Ukraine is brought in to NATO. Now, um, if the Trump administration agrees to that, and we have a new guy in charge in Germany as well, because Germany and the US were the two major countries opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. [00:35:41] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:35:41] Dr. Kuzio: And we know that the Germans would just do what the Americans say on this really. But anyway. Uh, the Christian Democrats in Germany are less antagonistic to this question than than Scholz was. So this potentially could alter that dynamic. That would be a, a big factor, encouraging the Ukrainians to agree to a ceasefire. Um, because, um, obviously the Ukrainians and many Europeans are afraid that Russia would use a ceasefire just to rebuild its army and then go into sort of round three or, you know, round two or three. Um, on the territorial question again, um, this was, um, nothing completely new. Um, the Biden administration and Germany pursued this policy based on a fear of escalation, fear of nuclear war. Um, and they so supplied, drip, drip supplied, weapons to Ukraine enough for Ukraine not to be defeated and not enough to win. And so there was never really, uh, a goal of the Biden administration for Ukraine to defeat Russia. Um, [00:36:50] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:36:50] Dr. Kuzio: and, and, and, and, and so there wasn't really a, a plan. I mean, the only, the major, the main opportunity, which was missed deliberately by the Biden administration was in the autumn of 2022. Because at that stage there were only 170,000 troops, uh, Russian troops in Ukraine, the initial invasion force. Um, Ukraine had by then about 400,000. It had just thrown the Russians. They ran, uh, from Kharkiv in the east, and then they were, uh, they were defeated in Kherson in the southwest. Um, if at that stage the Americans and the Germans, uh, had agreed with the British and the others that yes, this is a time to go after the Russians, give them, Ukraine, everything they've got, Ukraine would've defeated the Russian Army at that stage. But that wasn't the goal of, uh, the Biden administration. They feared escalation, um, whatever that meant. And, and so they allowed Russia to, uh, to rebuild, um, by mobilization in Russia, they mobilized 300,000 troops. They built fortifications, laid mines. So by the time Ukraine launched its counter offensive in the June of 2023, it was too late. Um, uh, Russia had installed in Ukraine basically three times, the number of troops from 170,000 to 450,000. Mm. So, um, this territorial question of the loss of territory, I think the Biden administration was content with that as long as there was no kind of movement to some threat, theoretical threat of nuclear war. By the way, for historians listening to this, this is nothing un this is very similar to what was, what it was like in 1990-1991. It's exactly the same. Then President Bush, Bush's father were, um, was, was fearful about, um, again, escalation, what would happen if the USSR disintegrated, you know, would this be a nuclear Yugoslavia as it were? Um, and hence, uh, Bush came to, uh, Kyiv and gave a talk to the, gave a speech to the Ukrainian Parliament on the 1st of August 91, which was nicknamed Chicken Kyiv speech because he, he told the Ukrainians, don't go for independence. [00:39:15] Chris: Mm. [00:39:16] Dr. Kuzio: The, the US had moved from fifty years of fighting to destroy the USSR in the Cold War to one my, of my God, this may happen. [00:39:28] Chris: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. [00:39:29] Dr. Kuzio: In 1990-91, disintegration of the USSR did not go the way of the disintegration of Yugoslavia, but, but this Biden, Scholz fear is, is similar to that era, as it were. And, and, and, and so, uh, the Biden administration and Scholz were, were content with Ukraine losing that, losing that bit of territory. The Ukrainian, I think what, going back to your question about the peace treaty, I'm very skeptical. Um, why am I skeptical? There's many reasons, but one of the reasons is that Russia is demanding. I mean, Russia is, Putin is on a maximalist streak. He's demanding absolute maximum that, that he wants. And one of the demands that Russia is making, it's been making for, for many years is that Ukraine and the West recognize these territories that have been annexed by Russia as legally Russian. There's no way that's gonna happen. I mean, firstly, President Zelensky couldn't do that. I mean, you'd have to change the constitution. [00:40:29] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:40:30] Dr. Kuzio: Um, because as a president, he's the guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity. Um, but anyway, um, the West and Ukraine is more, uh, talking about the similarity of the Baltic states in the Cold War, where they never recognized the three Baltic states as being part of the Soviet Union. Um, and so it would be the same kind of thing that if there was some kind of ceasefire Ukraine and the West would not recognize these territories as, as legally Russian. Uh, they would be temporarily occupied as it were. Um, you know, when that would change would depend on, you know, if Putin dies or if there's a coup in Moscow, whatever, um, Ukraine gets them back. But there's no way that Ukraine would go down the path of saying, yeah, these are now legally Russian. But anyway, you, Russia doesn't control a hundred percent of any of these four regions. [00:41:24] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:41:25] Dr. Kuzio: Uh, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson. So Russia's demanding that Ukraine transfer what it doesn't control to Russia, which again will never happen. Um, so, um, so this, these, this territorial question, Ukraine would be amenable to a ceasefire, which temporarily leaves territory under Russian occupation if the security guarantees, I think, were very powerful. And one of these ideas is, um, that, uh, if Russia invades again, Ukraine is brought into NATO, that is actually a big plus for Europeans because we're probably gonna go into this question. Um, it probably requires fewer troops to be installed as peacekeepers because if you've got this threat of Ukraine joining NATO, you don't need hundreds of thousands of troops on, on that, on that front line. Um, because Russia, uh, because Ukraine, Russia would be fighting NATO if it attacked because Ukraine will be brought into NATO. [00:42:30] Chris: Mm-mm. [00:42:30] Dr. Kuzio: So I think that probably is another factor explaining why this idea has been floated. Um, because, uh, the Europeans are debating where are we gonna get these troops, you know? [00:42:41] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:42:41] Dr. Kuzio: Um, and the, and the figures have been named anything from 30 to 50 to 150,000. Where are they gonna come from? Britain has been the lead on this, but, you know, Britain can't do it alone. [00:42:53] Chris: Well, no, and as you pointed out earlier, armed, armed forces are kind of in a, a worse state than they were before, so it'd be very hard for them to be able to really guarantee this. [00:43:02] Dr. Kuzio: Um, so the, so some, I've heard that Britain has a worse navy than since Charles II or something. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's been allowed to decline quite a lot. Yes. But I guess that has to, that's gonna be changing now. And everybody, everybody in Europe is talking about moving to three, uh, even up some countries like Poland and Lithuania moving to five percent. Um, and people should remember that the US only spends 3.8. So, um, anything, anything above 3.5 is already doing well. [00:43:36] Chris: Do you think the public, both in the UK and Europe, are kind of up to speed with things to agree with a ramp up of defense spending? Because, um, frequently I just hear more and more people who are anti any spending on defense? Um, a lot of the time. [00:43:52] Dr. Kuzio: Um, it's difficult to say. I mean, I think that, um, opinion polls show obviously there is, there's some fatigue, um, in, in everywhere. But opinion polls show, uh, and I saw one just about a week ago, um, of, of less than ten percent of Americans have a favorable view of Putin and Russia, for example. Um, so, um, and, and you see, you do see blue and yellow flags still everywhere in, um, in, in Britain, in people's homes and stuff. Um, I was at a, um, a, a kind of a service at the, at York Minster on the third anniversary, and that was full of British people commemorating the Russian invasion. I, I don't think that's as, as major a factor because I don't think most people understand and are involved in all the intricacies of budgetary outlays and, you know, defense spending compared to social, social service spending. Obviously it's going to be problematical, but I, I guess there will be some people opposing, um, increased defense spending, but, um, but I'd be surprised, um, if it's gonna be a problem in Britain. It's more likely to be a problem in countries where the far-right, like for example in Germany, uh, the AfD who came second, they would be opposed to it. But we don't have that problem in Britain, do we? Um, so, [00:45:18] Chris: Not yet. [00:45:19] Dr. Kuzio: No, not yet. No. Um, I mean, unless Farage becomes a Tory prime minister, but, um, yeah, but, so I don't think this is a major issue at the moment, but yes, I mean, um, I think governments need to give a greater kind of information or propaganda about, you know, what is actually threatening us, um, uh, in, in, in, in Europe. And that of course is, is the Russian question. Um, it's not, um, I don't think the Europeans really have much fear about China. The Chinese threat doesn't seem to sort of register much in Europe. [00:45:55] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:45:55] Dr. Kuzio: Unlike in the US, but I think the Russian threat is there. I I think also it continues to register because it's not just a war, it's war crimes, you know, the children, the refugees. Um, yeah. There's also self-interest. I mean, do you want, uh, Ukraine to be defeated and then you're gonna get millions more Ukrainians fleeing out to the West, um, as well. So, so there's, there's a number of different, I think, as aspects here. Mm. [00:46:23] Chris: Let's take a quick break and we'll be right back. Now back to the sort of peace deals. Um, so President Donald Trump's been sending out a lot of mixed signals towards Ukraine. Um, so, you know, obviously first of all he held these talks in Saudi Arabia that excluded Ukraine. Then, uh, I think it was just last week, he was calling President Zelensky a dictator, and then insisting that Ukraine hold elections, which I think will benefit Russia if they do that. Then you've got the US uh, you know, refusing to condemn Russia at the UN for the war in Ukraine. So I'm like, well, what's going on with, with, uh, President Trump? Is this some weird mystical kabuki of, um, you know, sort of negotiation tactics that I'm missing or, or is there something else afoot here? [00:47:22] Dr. Kuzio: I don't see. I'm not an expert on international negotiations, but I mean, I don't see how this is an, a reflection of having fantastic negotiating skills. Um, why are you angering Europeans and Ukrainians unnecessarily? You know, um, I understand that if you could beginning peace talks, you probably would want to have separate peaces talks between the US and Russia and US Ukraine. Uh, you wouldn't want them all in the same room arguing, uh, you know, with you. Um, but the, I, I think that the, uh, what, what lies at the roots of this are something mystical and something, uh, uh, typical personal in the case of Trump. Trump's got a personal conflict with Zelensky. [00:48:08] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:48:09] Dr. Kuzio: Zelensky hasn't got it with Trump, but it's Trump Zelensky. And this goes back to the first impeachment. And back in 19, 2019, 2020, when the Trump team, uh, led by that complete idiot, uh, New York, New York lawyer Giuliani. [00:48:26] Chris: Oh, yeah, yeah. [00:48:26] Dr. Kuzio: Um, tried to, uh, collect dirt on Biden in Ukraine. They were being, this was a Russian intelligence operation. They were, they were being fed this stuff from Moscow. Mm. I mean, the people who were being, who were feeding this have been declared to be Russian agents, Ukrainians and Russians. And the Giuliani team would always fly to Ukraine through Vienna, where they would meet this Ukrainian gas oligarch, Dmytro, Dmytro Firtash who was always Putin's puppet. I mean, I mean this, this, this is nothing, uh, nothing secretive here. I mean, it's pretty obvious what was going on, nevertheless. The Democrats jumped on this, of course, that famous phone call where Trump was trying to, um, pressure Zelensky into getting dirt. Um, and if he didn't get the dirt on Biden or didn't allow the dirt to be collected on Biden and given to Giuliani team, then Ukraine wouldn't get military assistance from the US. So this was used by the de by the Democrats to impeach Trump ever since that then that factor plus the di, the disinformation being spread that some, the Ukraine embassy in Washington and Ukraine government was supporting, uh, the Democrats over the Republicans in the presidential elections has led to Trump having this vindictive and very personal conflict with Zelensky. We, we know that Trump is a very vindictive person. He doesn't forget anybody who slighted him. And, and I think that is, that is the, is the main factor there. Um, there's also I think this mystical issue of which is unexplainable that Trump some somehow gets a kick out of dealing with, with macho men. You know, whether it's North Koreans, the, the Russians, or the Chinese, he, he, he likes to hang out with those people. He doesn't like to hang out with democratic leaders. He thinks they're losers as he calls them. Um, and um, this is again, ironic because this is the guy who's not a macho guy. I mean, he paid a doctor to get out to being sent to Vietnam, uh, Trump. Um, so, so he's not macho, but he wants to sort of portray that macho image. So I think this, that's partly it. I mean, how else do you explain it really? Um, maybe there's some kind of ideology in there with the realism, you know, where the big players in the world decide everything over the heads of others, um, which, you know, would be the US and Russia's deciding, uh, what happens in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, over the heads of the Ukraine and Europeans. But I, you know, it's not 1945 anymore. It's things have changed. Um. So I think it's those, those kinds of factors which are at play. Um, but I mean, the approach to me seems to have just backfired. Um, it solidified European resolve to support Ukraine. Mm. Um, it's resolved, uh, European, uh, um, finally, Europeans coming to realize that America is no longer their ally in many ways. Um, this trans transatlantic relationship, which existed for seventy years is basically being torn up by, by Trump. [00:51:46] Chris: Yeah. Terrible. [00:51:47] Dr. Kuzio: So, yeah. Um, so, uh, I, I mean, and what to me is surprising on the geopolitical side is how the Trump team don't seem to, and I don't think they're very deep on these questions, they don't seem to understand how it doesn't work like that, you know, we, we give the Russian problem to the Europeans, and then we deal with the, then we've got more ability to deal with the Chinese problem ourselves. [00:52:14] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:52:15] Dr. Kuzio: I'm sorry. It doesn't work like that because all of these questions are inter, integrated. Um, the, uh, two, two examples. Well, f well, three examples. Firstly, the Iranians and the North Koreans are helping the Russians. There are North Korean troops fighting Ukrainians. There are Cuban troops fighting Ukrainians. [00:52:37] Chris: Wow. Yeah. [00:52:38] Dr. Kuzio: Um, China is the main external enabler of Russia's military machine. China's there. So the idea that, that, you know, China's over there in Asia and we have to deal with China and Asia, and Russia's over here in Europe, and they're two separate questions is simply, it's fake news. Sorry. It's fake news. I mean, there's an axis of whatever you want to call it, evil, chaos, um, you know, you, uh, and that, that that axis exists and, um, and, and therefore the idea that they seem to be working to this, um, this, this, uh, kind of theory that they, they can split, uh, the Russians from the Chinese, the kind of Nixon thing, what Nixon did with Kissinger in, in, in the late seventies. Um, again, I it's a different world. I, I, that's not gonna happen. Um, I, I, I, I just don't see that, um, that, that, that taking place. So their, their approach to me is simply bizarre. And, um, it doesn't make a lot of rational sense. I mean, for example, on the vote, you mentioned they could have abstained. China, Iran, and India who have, have been in the Russian camp during this war, all abstained. Mm, most of the post-Soviet space abstained except Belarus, which voted for, with Russia. Why could the US not have abstained? Why did the US have to have to strong arm Israel to vote also against the resolution? I mean, does Israel not realize that the Iranian-Russian military, uh, alliance is a threat to Israel? [00:54:22] Chris: Oh, yeah, yeah. Um, the, is the Israel question has always puzzled me because they, they seem to take an active disinterest in this war, even though, um, Iranian weapons are being used, et cetera. [00:54:31] Dr. Kuzio: Well, it's not just that, but you must be, if you are an Israeli intelligence officer, and you must be, one of your scenarios must be that Russia will give Iran nuclear weapons. You have to have that as one of your scenarios. Whether you think it's, you know, unlikely is a separate question, but you have to have that as one of your scenarios. Um. What does Iran want from Russia? That's the big thing. It wants, it wants to be a nuclear power. Mm. A nuclear weapon state. Um, and so, yes, it doesn't make sense. I mean, people have told me the reasons for that are, well the Russians were in Syria and therefore the Israelis had to be very cautious. Yes. But the Russians are out. Mm. So nothing's changed. The Russians were kicked out in December. Um, why is the Israeli position not gone? Yes. Now we can work with the Ukrainians finally. Um, and secondly, um, and the other reason that people have given, there's a large, uh, the, the voting constituency in Israel, which votes for the populist nationalist right, are, many of those are from Russia. They're Russian Jews and they watch Russian TV all day. They're very pro-Putin. And so they, uh, kind of pressure Netanyahu to be good buddies with Putin. I mean, I don't know whether that's a factor as well. Um, so because you did see, you can find on the internet, uh, election billboards from Israel with Netanyahu and Putin, kind of hugging together, uh, going back to sort of 2019. [00:56:01] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:56:01] Dr. Kuzio: And so, um, I, I wonder whether that's a factor. I mean, we have a reality where Iran is an existential threat to Israel. Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face of the map. That's Iran's goal. It's never hidden that goal. Um, Russia has the same goal with Ukraine. It makes a natural alliance and even more so because Zelensky is Jewish. His family was murdered in the Holocaust, you know, his in World War II. [00:56:33] Chris: Yeah. [00:56:34] Dr. Kuzio: Um, I mean, uh, it, it is rather irrational. Um, and especially now after Russia's been kicked out of Syria. There's no real, there's no more excuses to be made. And this vote yesterday, I think is just a disgrace for Israel. I mean, Israel now is voting alongside countries like. North Korea for Christ's sake. I mean. [00:56:56] Chris: Mm-mm. Yeah. Yeah. Not good at all, unfortunately. I'm gonna have to wrap up shortly. So do you have any sort of final thoughts before we part company today? [00:57:06] Dr. Kuzio: Well, I think on the peace, peace, um, discussions, I think we are in the very early stages. Um, we are gonna have to return to this. We do have a problem, as you said, with Putin, with Trump's chaotic approach to these kinds of questions. And also, I think he's very skin-deep. He's not very deep, as it were at all on the intricacies of these, of these issues. [00:57:31] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:57:32] Dr. Kuzio: I'm very skeptical that something can be, can be agreed, um, because of the maximalist demands made by Russia. Some kind of ceasefire might be agreed, but I, I, I wonder, I wonder how this will be undertaken and it will never be undertaken without the Europeans and Ukrainians. Mm. So we shall see whether a ceasefire agreement is, is made this year. If it is, it's probably gonna be along the lines of Korea, which seventy years ago signed a ceasefire agreement, but didn't ever sign a peace agreement. I mean, there's no kind of document there. It's just a ceasefire agreement that was frozen back in 1953, uh, with the US guaranteeing South Korea's, uh, security. Um, is that gonna be the, uh, the, the kind of image of where we're going? I don't know. I think we're in a different world because, uh, Putin is, Putin, um, is um, is obsessed with his legacy. Um, I think game was, is one of the areas that very few non-experts in the, in this field understand. He's obsessed with his legacy of going into Russian history, following in the footsteps of Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Stalin. Those are his kind of big names. [00:58:58] Chris: Mm-hmm. [00:58:58] Dr. Kuzio: And he wants to go into history as one of those. He's not gonna go into Russian history as in this big way if he hasn't conquered Ukraine and if he hasn't conquered Ukrainian cities. So that's why I'm another major reason, I'm, I'm skeptical, but who knows? We shall see what happens. [00:59:15] Chris: Yeah. [00:59:15] Dr. Kuzio: We'll return to this. [00:59:16] Chris: He's made a lot of progress for a low level KGB officer, hasn't he? [00:59:20] Dr. Kuzio: He certainly has. Um, who, who, uh, um, I mean, there's a funny story to this, uh, told to me by some Russian, some histor Russia historians of Russia living in Britain that in the 1990s put Putin, um, was determined to find in the KGB archives why he was unsuccessful in, in his career in the KGB. Why didn't rise up as it were up the ladder? And he found in, and I'm sure those documents now destroyed, uh, he found in, in the KGB archives that he wasn't rated. Um, he, he wasn't rated as a spy. He didn't have, you know, to be a good spy, you've got to have a good, uh, you, you've gotta be a bit of an extrovert. You've gotta be able to mingle, you've gotta be able to sort of, you know, make friends with people, that kind of thing. You know, kind of get them on your side, you know, have jokes and with them and this kind of thing. This guy's soulless. I mean, he, he's, he's cold as a fish. Um, he's simply, maybe you could be a researcher, but not a, not a spy in that, not a recruiter, shall we say. Um, and that really, really apparently pissed him off. [01:00:33] Chris: Well, there we go. Well thank you for that. So, um, where can listeners find out more about you and your work? [01:00:38] Dr. Kuzio: Um, well, I comment pretty much every day on, on X, uh, formally Twitter. Um, and, um, I think on, if you do Google searches, you'll find my journalistic and academic articles there, but feel free to contact me as well, um, through various means like through Twitter. [01:00:55] Chris: Fantastic. Well thank you for joining me today. It's been great. [01:00:58] Dr. Kuzio: Thank you very much for reinviting me. [01:01:30] Announcer: Thanks for listening. This is Secrets and Spies.