S8 Ep30: Espresso Martini: Leaked Russian documents, defector shot in Spain, CIA's relationship with Ukrainian intelligence

[00:00:00] Hello everybody and welcome to Espresso Martini. Matt, how are you doing? Well, on today's episode, we're going to talk about things slightly more exciting than the weather. We're going to be looking at some leaked Russian documents about their threshold for using nuclear weapons. We've got an assassination of a Russian defector in Spain, got details on the cooperation between the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence services and more.

[00:01:40] Then we'll move on to our Patreon only show, Extra Shot.

[00:01:43] On that, we will look at recommendations for outline the criteria for nuclear responses, including scenarios like enemy incursions on Russian territory or destruction of strategic assets. Russian tactical nuclear weapons designed for limited use in Europe and Asia

[00:03:04] remain a cornerstone of Russia's defense policy. Despite the document being dated, But Matt, did you have any thoughts on these leaked documents? Yeah, a few. First, it's so rare that you see these kind of leaks from within the Russian military or the security services. It seems like every other week here there's some minor enlisted IT guy who comes back

[00:04:21] from lunch with a headache or whatever and thinks I'm going to drop all the crown jewels

[00:04:26] of the USatory action. I feel like that's when the Russians and Putin himself would see that this is too... The risks of failure here are higher than they're willing to accept.

[00:05:42] And this doctrine, I think, really just kind of adversaries that we would face, you know? Um, basically, yeah, just generic bad guys, you know, please don't be mad at us for who we're depicting as, you know, anyway. Yeah. What's they call them again? And I can't remember. Was it the enemy? Yeah. Just the enemy.

[00:07:00] That was sort of like the first one too, but yeah.

[00:07:01] Yeah.

[00:07:02] Anyway, Chinese box office is important. the North Koreans are with the Chinese right now, entirely just dependent on them under their thumb, which is a bad scenario for everyone, the Russians included, and us vassal state under the Chinese at some point in the near future that let's say the Chinese economy is tanking for demographic reasons or what have you, and they're looking across into

[00:09:40] the Russian Far East, into Siberia and Central enemy and they'd be waging a war against the West. As the saying goes, Russia's waging a war against the West, but the West hasn't realized that yet.

[00:11:05] So it doesn't really surprise me that they feel that way about the Chinese as well. that the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons is absolutely transparent and spelled out in the doctrine. And then he says, as for the documents mentioned, we strongly doubt their authenticity, which is a bit weird. And I'm wondering if this is some sort of thinly veiled sort of warning about Crimea, like you were saying earlier. These are leaks that happen in America.

[00:12:21] This is sort of like the, you know, say, hey, because there's been a lot of debate as we've seen online and comments online where people really play down the threat of a nuclear escalation with Russia and Ukraine to the point where people were like, it's almost saying on Twitter, oh, nothing to worry about,

[00:13:40] you know, but I've always been concerned about Russia kind of being pushed into a corner

[00:13:45] where they feel they want, Russia has nuclear weapons, therefore you have to let them do whatever they want because to push back on them means the end of the human race. And that's just, that's just like, okay, so we're hostages now, you know? So any country that has nuclear weapons, they can just do whatever we want. Could we do whatever we want because we have nukes too? Could the UK?

[00:15:00] Yeah, I know.

[00:15:01] I don't know.

[00:15:02] It's weird.

[00:15:03] It's so funny looking at debates around everything. a tidy, you don't just start it and then just turn it off and go back to, you know, the way it was before, but what we could do, compared to what we have done, as far as those two countries are concerned, are so cautious, to the point that we're sort of tying our

[00:16:20] hands behind our backs, you can tell these documents are dated because the one thing they didn't have was how, um, a mutinous Wagner convoy could get to Moscow with little, no resistance, so they might need to update that document now, but there we go. Well, look, shall we, um, should we move on from that one?

[00:17:42] Yeah.

[00:17:42] And, uh, you've got a great. Kuzmina's defection was part of a six month operation by Ukrainian intelligence code named Titmouse. He defected due to opposition to Russia's war in Ukraine and provided valuable intelligence to Ukraine. I think especially the electronics on the helicopter were probably worth-

[00:19:00] Yeah, I think that's what made it special because helicopter itself is a very old platform.

[00:19:04] Yeah, the MI8 airframe would put good money on it. It's either the Russian government or they've used organized crime as a cutout to perform the murder. And obviously he was riddled with bullets. It wasn't just one or two shots or a clean shot. He was literally, the reporting is he was riddled with bullets.

[00:20:20] So it was definitely-

[00:20:21] Yeah, they made a statement.

[00:20:22] Yeah, yeah.

[00:20:23] I think you'd call it a statement kill, I think is the term.

[00:20:26] Yeah, he definitely wasn of a political leak.

[00:21:41] But there we go.

[00:21:44] What thoughts did you have on all this? felt gross to me, you know, like his crew. ALICE And oh yeah, that's always bothered me. JUSTIN Yeah. Who were given the option to defect as well, and you know, they resisted, and they were executed I think on the spot. Which you know, it's war. ALICE Yeah. I don't know if they were executed, I think a gun battle took place from what I read.

[00:23:03] I don't think they were executed.

[00:23:04] And also, they weren't really given a choice, again, this is, it's not easy.

[00:24:22] How do you get rid of your crew?

[00:24:23] Yeah, yeah.

[00:24:24] Yeah, hunt for October, they faked's weird. I wondered why he picked Spain. I can only assume that either he had a relative or a lover there, or it was an area that was just familiar to him, or he was just naive to think, oh, there are fellow Russians there, it'd be fine. I don't know. There's a couple other points here. So Spanish intelligence was apparently unaware that he was even in the country.

[00:25:41] Wow.

[00:25:42] Oh, there we go.

[00:25:43] So, you know, they can't put he didn't just, well, cause the Ukrainians

[00:27:03] gave him an option to stay in Ukraine.

[00:27:05] They could protect him.

[00:27:07] Um, and if he went out of Ukraine, they can't protect him.

[00:28:04] But now this is like the counter to that, so it could put off would-be defectors, and I feel like the whole thing has been handled a bit badly, really, to put it bluntly.

[00:28:08] I think you make a good point there to, I guess, highlight that we're not criticizing

[00:28:15] his decision to defect, it's just how it went down.

[00:28:21] There's parts of that that are uncomfortable family and stuff and friends, but yeah. Yeah. Unfortunate end and probably avoid35. Su worked with hackers employed by China's People's Liberation Army to gain unauthorized access to protected computer networks in the United States, including those belonging to Boeing. Despite operating a small company in the aviation industry, Su established extensive business

[00:31:00] contacts in Canada and the US, allowing him to gain access to internal networks of defense

[00:31:06] contractors. as effective employment strategies can offset technological shortcomings. Chris, what did you think about this one? Well, first of all, I found it fascinating. And again, thank you for sharing this. I mean, I've, you know, over the years, I've been an aviation nerd and I've noticed that these fighters do look remarkably similar to American ones. Yes. It's interesting when talking to people about military industrial espionage, because a lot

[00:32:20] of people don't realize that one of the points of industrial espionage is it can save money And even though the American and military government said he was a small player, he was still, you know, having conversations with big companies like Lockheed and stuff. And also it looked like he was stealing information to order. So it wasn't like a straightforward, grab the entire hard drive of Lockheed Martin and walk out the door. They kind of were shopping for info at different companies and trying to work out what fit

[00:33:46] where. you've got the tactics and experience to go with it, that it is just a glorified paperweight, isn't it? But yeah, Matt, any thoughts for you on this? Yeah, first, you make an interesting point about, I would train against actual MiGs out on the range. There was always that shock factor of seeing a real one in person and the Air Force wanted

[00:36:20] their fighter pilots to go through that shock, by Chinese industrial espionage efforts. And I mean, you think of the big three aviation contractors, so Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, counterintelligence that are currently being done to protect these six gen programs? A big component of the NGAD, it's supposedly...

[00:39:05] Well, it's not.

[00:39:06] It's going now. There was a new building that was constructed at Area 51. And judging by the large amount of air conditioning equipment that's attached to the building, people think it's a data center that's connected to the AI programs that are going to be able to demonstrate that you're able to protect your information up to these standards. All the Lockheed engineers at Skunk Works or whatever all have top secret clearances. They're read into these special access programs that each one of those prototypes are a separate special access program that you have to have a need to know to be involved in.

[00:41:43] Yeah, no, it's a fascinating case.

[00:41:45] I think really good article and people should check in Ukraine, there is a military base that despite surface destruction, harbors a critical underground bunker. This bunker serves as a key intelligence nerve sensor, monitoring Russian spy satellites and intercepting communications.

[00:43:00] The CIA plays a pivotal role in financing

[00:43:03] and equipping the base,

[00:43:04] highlighting the deepening

[00:43:05] U.S.-Ukraine intelligence partnership. construction of secret bases, and something called Operation Goldfish, in which Ukrainians were taught about how to create fake personas and operate under cover. And there were tensions in this relationship. So tensions arose around lethal operations, which made the US government very nervous because obviously they were concerned about Russia's reaction to that.

[00:44:21] But as this partnership has persisted, you know, it's contributed significantly to the

[00:44:25] defense of Ukraine. MI6 are the very efforts that push them deeper into the West's arms. Self-fulfilling prophecy in a way. In a way, yes. But it's impressive what they've been able to do. I think there was an assumption heading into from many people in the West that heading

[00:45:40] into the invasion in 2022 that the Ukrainian intelligence services were so penetrated by

[00:45:45] the Russians to the degree that they out, I was quite interested by, was this sort of CIA training that's been going on. Apparently they've been helping to train a new generation of Ukrainian spies to operate not only inside Russia, but across Europe and in Cuba. And I was intrigued by that. And I'm wondering, you know, there's been this ongoing discussion for the

[00:47:01] last couple of years about the sabotage operations in Russia and the CIA

[00:47:06] connection to it. publication to run this article that he had done with sourcing from inside JSOC and the CIA and stuff that was talking about the sabotage efforts inside Russia, like all the fires and explosions and stuff at all their industrial facilities.

[00:48:21] And really pointed out how it's, I think there had a few Twitter exchanges about. Yeah. Jack had the story a while ago, and I think the seventh floor intervened with whatever publication he was working with, and they lost interest, and then he published it on

[00:49:42] his own.

[00:49:43] Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[00:49:44] No, it's an interesting one.

[00:49:45] Well, I think this is a great ask away.

[00:49:48] It's very detailed. happens but there are people out there who probably do believe that but there we go. Maybe the end of, is it the King's Man with Ralph Fiennes whichever one that was? The historical set one where at the end he ends up in a, we see that like Adolf Hitler, Stalin and whoever else were working for the Illuminati and it's just like oh my goodness there we

[00:51:02] go you know they're gonna rehash that conspiracy theory in the movie great. So there we go. with Israel. Cutter expressed caution regarding Biden's optimistic view on nearing an agreement, stating ongoing effects but no concrete developments. Israel offered concessions, including releasing Palestinian prisoners in negotiations, aiming for a six-week ceasefire, an exchange involving scores of prisoners. Hamas insisted on a permanent ceasefire and Israeli troop

[00:52:23] withdrawal, while Israel maintains

[00:52:24] its goal of toppling Hamas in exchange for five female prisoners the five I think I believe they're five young IDF

[00:53:40] soldiers who are still in captivity at this time and these people they were

[00:53:45] going to exchange for them were you know serious hardened terrorists you've done is appalling and I'd like to see a ceasefire, but the debate in this whole subject, um, sort of tends to ignore Israel's efforts for the ceasefire and, um, seems to also ignore Hamas's efforts to not have a ceasefire and to keep this conflict kind of going. And, um people have tried, and I honestly have no idea what the next ceasefire agreement's going to be, but I guarantee you on Saturday there'll be a protest in London about demanding a ceasefire, yet they will totally ignore the fact that Hamas are the ones who've kind

[00:56:23] of screwed this particular one up. previous ceasefire, there were, I think, a large number of Palestinians that were released per every Israeli hostage that was released. But some of the people that... They weren't the people that- They were quite low level people. In many cases, it was like Palestinian teenagers and stuff who were swept up in raids in the

[00:57:40] West Bank and everything.

[00:57:43] These weren't like senior Hamas members. operations again, whether or not that would bear out in that scenario, I don't know. But I think that was the thinking, and of course in the conversation about it, it totally just gets lost in the black and white absolutes, all that kind of stuff. But the hope is that a temporary six week ceasefire in practice will become a permanent

[00:59:03] ceasefire. And now we're in this terrible mess. Um, but yet again, kind of Israeli security always seems to be, for many people, they don't give a damn about Israeli security. They think Israel should just go. And I don't see that as a realistic option. And I don't see that as a particularly good option either, um, especially for the Israelis. Um, and I don't think that's an acceptable opinion either anymore.

[01:00:21] Cause Israel is a political reality, whether you like it or not.

[01:01:25] situation, sorry for the analogy, but they poked the bear and Israel responded.

[01:01:26] I don't agree.

[01:01:31] I think Israel over responded, but they did respond and it was kind of predictable how Israel was going to respond and Hamas knew that.

[01:01:36] And they did absolutely zero to protect the people of Gaza.

[01:01:41] And I just get so annoyed in the West when you've got people over here who see it on the American left, the new generation, the AOCs, et cetera, who are not fans of Israel. And certainly, about a year and a half ago, there were votes about removing or bringing down America's support for, military support for like the Iron Dome. And a lot of far leftist and leftist politicians, it sort of become this sort of cause for them.

[01:03:01] That cutting off any American support for Israel is the

[01:03:04] thing that needs to happen.

[01:03:06] So let's fast forward 20 years time.

[01:04:08] October 7th, if I know, holy shit, oh my God, we would lose our minds. We would burn that whole region to the ground if that happened to us.

[01:04:15] And yeah, I don't think there's just a profound sense of trauma that they're still working

[01:04:19] through. that Hamas sort of bullied people to go in certain places that were known to get bombed and stuff and so on and so forth. But it's going to be a high figure and it's, you know... Way higher than it ever should have been. Yeah, and I just don't see how that's going to help Israel in the long run. I really don't. But again, just to put a point on it, protests and to port any pro-Palestinian immigrants, so you know, great job guys. So that could happen too. To that point though, so I think it was on Tuesday, was it Tuesday? The Democratic primary in Michigan was held and there was a movement, I don't know the

[01:07:04] ins and outs of it, but there was is in sort of alignment with past historical primaries. Yeah, it's not a flashing red emergency, that 16%, but it's

[01:08:22] also, it's not something to be ignored either. and again as it has been. And the past sort of like the Abraham Accords, the recent efforts with Gulf Arab states,

[01:09:44] normalized ties with the Israelis and stuff, together and sort of come up with some sort of agreement and good luck. It's like herding cats. But I always think we need a UN and I hate it when, you know, the UN does get sort of

[01:11:00] tarnished with things, but this was avoidable, but it hasn't been because the UN do

[01:12:04] Join us on Extra Shot. There'll be a link in the show notes below and

[01:12:08] and we'll catch you on there and if not, thank you very much for listening and

[01:12:14] Yeah, and I hope you enjoyed this episode and we will catch you on the next one. Bye everybody