S8 Ep21: 2024 Global forecast with Sam Lichtenstein from RANE

[00:00:00] Due to the themes of this podcast, listener discretion is advised.

[00:00:07] Lock your doors, close the blinds, change your passwords.

[00:00:11] This is Secrets and Spies.

[00:00:27] Secrets and Spies is a podcast that dives into the world of espionage, terrorism, geopolitics

[00:00:32] and intrigue.

[00:00:34] This podcast is produced and hosted by Chris Carr.

[00:00:38] Hello everybody, we are back from Christmas and this is the first podcast of 2024 so welcome,

[00:00:46] thank you for joining us.

[00:00:47] Now I don't know about you but January is always a funny month where I'm always trying

[00:00:51] to figure out what nerf the year ahead has installed.

[00:00:54] And so with that very question, today we are joined by Sam Lichtenstein from Rain and

[00:00:59] we're going to discuss their global forecast for the year ahead.

[00:01:03] From what of Red of the Forecast, 2024 looks like it will be the most influential year

[00:01:08] that will set the tone for the rest of this decade.

[00:01:11] So pour yourself a drink, join us for this discussion and find out what to keep an eye

[00:01:14] on for the year ahead.

[00:01:15] I hope you find this episode interesting.

[00:01:18] Thank you for listening, take care.

[00:01:20] The opinions expressed by guests on secrets and spies do not necessarily represent those

[00:01:25] of the producers and sponsors of this podcast.

[00:01:44] Sam welcome back to the podcast, how are you?

[00:01:47] Thanks Chris, it's great to be here at the start of 2024.

[00:01:49] Yeah, it was great to have you back on.

[00:01:51] So for the benefit of this is you may not have listened to our episode last week, you

[00:01:55] just tell us a little bit about yourself or a little bit about your work at Rain.

[00:01:58] Sure, so I am one of the two directors of analysis at Rain, which stands for Risk Assistance

[00:02:03] Network in exchange where a US-based risk intelligence company with a global outlook.

[00:02:09] So we cover the entire globe and our basic work is to not only tell people what's going

[00:02:15] on but crucially forecast why it's going to matter in the future.

[00:02:18] And so we're very well known for our annual forecasts and then in addition, we do three

[00:02:23] quarterly updates throughout the year for Q2, 3 and 4.

[00:02:27] So it's a long-standing tradition that we have and it really drives our entire analytic

[00:02:32] program from the entire year.

[00:02:33] Yeah, fantastic.

[00:02:34] Were these forecasts brilliant?

[00:02:35] What we had last year was really great, really interesting and quite a lot of things that

[00:02:39] were talked about became hot points.

[00:02:42] In fact, I was just reflecting on the Middle East section and in the report you mentioned

[00:02:47] that obviously there was a risk of the uptake of violence in Israel, Gaza and fortunately

[00:02:53] that happened.

[00:02:55] So you guys were definitely sort of on the money with that.

[00:02:59] So this particular report this year, it looks like 2024 is going to be a very important

[00:03:05] year that will probably set the tone for the rest of the decade.

[00:03:09] And before we go into the specifics of the report, could you just say, well, if you

[00:03:12] just tell us a little bit about how these annual geophilicical forecasts are actually put

[00:03:16] together?

[00:03:17] Yeah, of course.

[00:03:18] It's simultaneously the most rewarding thing that we do.

[00:03:20] It is also by far the hardest thing that we do because of course, you know, writing

[00:03:25] any piece of intelligence analysis where you're trying to make a forecast is difficult

[00:03:29] because you're inherently operating on a world of uncertainty, limited information, etc.

[00:03:33] But now try doing this for the entire globe and for over the course of a full year if

[00:03:38] not a little bit beyond at times and it becomes really, really hard.

[00:03:41] So thankfully, we do have a well-established way that we do this and it starts as with

[00:03:46] you know, a lot of good ideas with just simple brainstorming among our team beginning at

[00:03:50] least a month before the end of the year where all of our analysts not only in their kind

[00:03:54] of regional groupings but across our regional divisions are talking to each other.

[00:04:00] What's at the outlook?

[00:04:02] Sometimes there are very obvious events so elections for instance, that gives us a very

[00:04:06] clear trigger to look at.

[00:04:08] But sometimes we are looking at larger trends that don't have clear touch points and so

[00:04:13] we're looking at kind of the background drivers and constraints on these things.

[00:04:18] And then through a number of meetings with our entire analyst team and other members of

[00:04:22] the company, we'll put together our list of basic top lines and then we'll flesh out

[00:04:27] using the same analytic trade graph that we do for all of our work which is basically

[00:04:31] focusing much more on the outlook and the implications.

[00:04:34] We're not trying to tell people what is going on.

[00:04:36] We are fundamentally making a forecast telling them what we expect to happen and then

[00:04:40] crucially, what we expect the impacts of that to be because a forecast is not useful.

[00:04:46] If you just tell folks, okay, well this is what we are kind of making a callable we expect

[00:04:51] but we actually want to get to the final point of why does it matter to people?

[00:04:56] What are the actual implications that we're looking at in terms of economic relations or security

[00:05:01] dynamics or political stability, etc?

[00:05:04] Yeah, it's not about trying to be nostradarmous so to speak.

[00:05:07] Yeah, I mean, it's a little more involved than just flipping a heads of tails coin but sometimes

[00:05:14] we do have very heated debates among our team and we end up always finding kind of a compromise

[00:05:21] on some of the more contentious issues that hopefully provides a value but still can be

[00:05:26] kind of within the agreed upon by all members of the team.

[00:05:31] It's unfortunate it happens around, obviously you've got a deadline coming up in December

[00:05:37] which is around the holidays.

[00:05:39] I can't see them being analysts at rain that over the holidays you're just hoping nothing

[00:05:43] significant happens that would change everything.

[00:05:45] You've got it exactly right Chris.

[00:05:47] It's always a tough time because in addition to it being the holiday season where people are

[00:05:53] out of the office spending time with their families we of course try to give our team a

[00:05:58] well-deserved break.

[00:05:59] They're also exactly as you said hoping, okay I really hope that this thing that we've been

[00:06:04] forecasting doesn't change in the next few days and I will admit there are sometimes

[00:06:08] that at the proverbial 11th hour we email our graphics and production team and say okay we need

[00:06:13] to change a word here or insert a phrase there.

[00:06:17] I don't think then in my recent memory though we've had to make a really analytic substantive change

[00:06:24] because the good news is if we've done our work well then anything that we forecast should

[00:06:30] incorporate what could happen in kind of the final days of the year and so there may be some changes

[00:06:35] around the margin but I can definitely say this year there were no last minute major reshuffles

[00:06:41] and hopefully now with the forecast being out for a few days we won't have to make any

[00:06:46] significant updates for Q2 because most of our forecasting for at least the first quarter of the year

[00:06:51] will be spot on. Yeah brilliant brilliant. Well the very big question can you give us a sort of

[00:06:57] overview summary of what to expect in 2020 for? Yeah you know this is a media narrative that we've

[00:07:03] seen and I like to think that we were internally discussing this long before the slow

[00:07:08] media articles came out in the past week but fundamentally this is a year of elections.

[00:07:13] I believe seven out of the ten most populous countries are going to be holding elections.

[00:07:18] We're talking about billions of people going to the polls and it's actually even more if you include

[00:07:23] not just national elections but super national elections like for the European Parliament

[00:07:27] and then municipal local elections in number of countries but even if we're just looking at

[00:07:31] the national elections that's what's going to define the year. Now obviously these take place

[00:07:37] in very different contexts for instance Russia will hold a presidential election if you can call

[00:07:42] an election in the first quarter. Yeah I think we've got the outcome already. Yeah that's

[00:07:48] I will say that's one of the easier calls to make spoiler alert present Putin will win re-election

[00:07:55] but then of course there are a lot more contentious ones you know in our home country the United

[00:07:58] States everyone is you know holding its breath already even though the vote won't be for

[00:08:03] a number of months now and then of course across the world you have everyone from the UK which

[00:08:08] seems like it's likely to hold an election in the second half of the year to countries like

[00:08:12] Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa and those elections are going to have huge implications whether

[00:08:20] the victory goes to an opposition party whether the current government retains power they're

[00:08:24] going to be a whole host of global things to be on everyone's radar because of those and so

[00:08:29] if we were talking about kind of a theme for 2024 I would really say it's driven by those elections.

[00:08:35] Yeah indeed indeed and one thing that's got interesting in the in the report is you talk a bit

[00:08:43] about the consequences of if President Biden wins re-election or whether Trump wins the election

[00:08:49] becomes president again I don't know if there's anything you want to sort of talk about some of

[00:08:53] the differences between the two and how that can affect sort of the geopolitical outlooks they both

[00:08:58] have quite different philosophies. Yeah to say the least and this is you know this is actually saying

[00:09:03] we debated on a bit with our team because we didn't know how much to talk about this in our 2024

[00:09:08] forecast because obviously any implications of this won't be seen until 2025 even if President

[00:09:13] Trump were to win a second term he of course wouldn't take office until January 2025 so the impacts

[00:09:20] won't be felt for another year but we felt it was important to include this as a really key driver

[00:09:25] because even though the election won't happen until November countries across the globe are already

[00:09:30] preparing and I can tell you that we've already even at the end of 2023 started receiving a number

[00:09:35] of client inquiries about ways in which US policy and therefore global events could ship depending

[00:09:41] on whether Biden or Trump wins the vote and so you know when you look across the board they're

[00:09:46] obviously a huge number of differences so we can start with some of the proverbial easier ones

[00:09:52] for instance on climate and the environment you know President Biden has made even though he

[00:09:58] admittedly has opened up a lot more oil drilling etc he's made environmental policy a key

[00:10:03] differentiator with the Trump administration I think it's safe to say that if President Trump

[00:10:08] were to win reelection you'd see the United States probably re-exit the Paris agreement

[00:10:14] there be even more drilling for oil and gas that we would see big reductions in climate ambitions

[00:10:21] and that's important not only because the United States is obviously the second largest emitter

[00:10:24] after China but because of course what the United States does will also set the tone for a lot

[00:10:29] of other countries and when you have the Biden administration that's at least pressure in countries

[00:10:33] like China like India other big emitters to up their climate ambition that's one thing but if

[00:10:39] you have a Trump White House that basically says we're going to proverbial drill baby drill obviously

[00:10:45] China India other emitters feel no pressure to curve their own emissions so this is a policy with

[00:10:52] massive global implications because you know you just need to read the news basically any day to

[00:10:57] see new dire warnings that you know the world is heading and the wrong trajectory in combating

[00:11:01] climate change and so that's one key differentiator between the two of them for also thinking about

[00:11:06] global conflicts obviously Ukraine comes up top of mind the Biden administration has made strong

[00:11:12] support for Ukraine a clear differentiator with the Trump administration and another Trump White

[00:11:17] House I think it's safe to say that would definitely decrease support for Kiev we've already

[00:11:22] seen Republicans in Congress hold up more US support for Ukraine over border security issues

[00:11:30] and return of the Trump administration which was already to put it diplomatically different

[00:11:35] in its policy towards Russia would absolutely see the United States decrease support and that of

[00:11:41] course matters a big deal because if the United States is decreasing support that also is going

[00:11:45] to have big implications for Europe's support which would also presumably then face complications

[00:11:51] and this is something we know Vladimir Putin is just kind of waiting for in Moscow and

[00:11:57] Biden his time knowing that time is kind of on his side especially if Trump wins and obviously

[00:12:03] a massive decrease in Western support for Ukraine would have global ramifications not only for security

[00:12:09] in Europe and Eurasia but yeah what that means for other conflicts and countries that are

[00:12:14] considering you know their own challenges there are some things though that I think are worth

[00:12:19] pointing out that are probably going to be similar and the cheap one that I'd highlight here is

[00:12:23] China policy you know Trump in his first administration made very aggressive noises about going

[00:12:31] after China for all host of issues and the Biden administration you know while they may

[00:12:36] rhetorically sound a bit different if you read the the policy papers that come out of say the

[00:12:41] Department of Defense the White House they're strikingly similar in the way they frame China as a

[00:12:45] very strategic the largest threat to US security and so we expect there would actually be a great

[00:12:53] deal of continuity but what might change is kind of the focus so for instance the Biden administration

[00:12:57] has really emphasized technology restrictions and trying to curb China's access to high tech everything

[00:13:04] from you know semiconductors across the board to communications artificial intelligence etc.

[00:13:11] The Trump administration as you know it's Trump famously called himself or perhaps

[00:13:16] infamously called himself tariff man really makes US trade policy the focus of its you know

[00:13:23] focus on China and so you likely see the same kind of aggressive counter China policies but more

[00:13:29] with an emphasis on hiking tariffs against China specifically and then to be honest across the globe

[00:13:35] because Trump has basically insinuated that we should all be preparing for for a global trade war

[00:13:40] with the US erecting reciprocal tariffs basically on any country that has them against the United States

[00:13:46] so China policy is one area where you're likely to see some continuity even if the focus from say

[00:13:54] high tech restrictions goes a bit more towards the tariffs obviously there are a whole lot of things

[00:13:58] that we could talk about here but I don't want to belabor us just on the United States despite me

[00:14:03] being an American I'm well aware that our country is not the only one that matters and there's a whole

[00:14:07] lot going across the globe in 2024 that I want to make sure we can check through oh yes definitely

[00:14:12] definitely one last one last thing just before we move on to the separate regions obviously growing

[00:14:17] concerns about AI is a bit of a theme of this year coming ahead and have you have any sort of thoughts

[00:14:21] on that yeah I mean the emergence of Chatchy PT in November 2022 I mean to say it was a game change

[00:14:28] it would be an understatement we are truly in the infancy of the AI revolution I think honestly

[00:14:34] anyone that has a strong forecast knowing and predicting where we're going to end up even in a year

[00:14:40] let alone five years probably doesn't know what they're talking about because there's so much

[00:14:45] uncertainty the pace of change here is incredible well we are definitely likely to see though in 2024

[00:14:51] is that the kind of race and differing perspectives to regulate AI are going to ramp up obviously a

[00:14:57] few weeks ago the European Union became really the first jurisdiction with its new AI act to

[00:15:03] incorporate kind of a regulatory framework the EU is of course very well known for for doing all

[00:15:08] these sorts of frameworks you know it instantly drew a lot of comparisons to the GDPR data regulation

[00:15:15] and so what you're likely to see in 2024 is more of the kind of shifting polls among different

[00:15:20] air global areas of power so the European Union has very much kind of a harm prevention framework

[00:15:25] that it's now following the United States perhaps unsurprisingly compared to Europe on many things

[00:15:31] as a little more free market so to speak and emphasizing really the development of the tech industry

[00:15:39] we're unlikely to see any sort of national regulation in the United States that means kind of

[00:15:43] states on their own will become more responsible for what to do and then you have other global powers

[00:15:49] like China India Russia that are all taking varying approaches and so we're much more likely to

[00:15:54] see a divergence here in global tech regulation than anything approaching kind of continuity and

[00:16:00] and unity cool thank you for that so let's talk about the different regions in the report then

[00:16:06] last year we finished our conversation on sub-Saharan Africa that was in your words sort of pretty much

[00:16:13] what the most important regions to keep it eye out for 2023 so I was wondering if we could start with

[00:16:17] sub-Saharan Africa and could have talked about what to look out for the year ahead sure so sub-Saharan

[00:16:23] Africa is a great place to start because if we're talking about global elections that are probably

[00:16:28] flying under the radar a bit we have a momentous one here and this is actually how we lead off

[00:16:32] our section which is in South Africa the African National Congress which has been in power since the

[00:16:38] end of apartheid is facing its kind of biggest crisis since then and there's a real risk that it

[00:16:46] actually may lose its parliamentary majority in the elections that are going to be taking place

[00:16:51] midway through the year likely we to you know we put in our report that we forecast that they will

[00:16:58] be able to probably hold on to a very very slim majority but there's a real risk that we outline

[00:17:04] of various different ways that this could go in which either they for instance lose their

[00:17:08] majority but retain a plurality and are able to cooperate with other parties to the least likely

[00:17:14] but most impactful scenario in which they would actually lose their majority to some sort of opposition

[00:17:20] group probably the democratic alliance we don't see that as likely but what's important here is

[00:17:24] that the ANC has a huge legitimacy problem the economy is in shambles massive you know problems

[00:17:32] with electricity industry facing huge surge in crime I mean the the list is tragically long and

[00:17:39] for obviously the region's chief economy there this is an election to watch and definitely one

[00:17:46] that's going to have ramifications far beyond just the country itself yeah definitely and this

[00:17:52] is a growing concern of jihadist terrorist groups in the region as well as there's anything you'll

[00:17:57] just say on that yeah this is this is tragically becoming much more of a regional story I think this

[00:18:03] is probably where we ended off last year with with us discussing how jihadist groups are basically

[00:18:09] poised to just continue their slow and steady expansion across the region and that's exactly what we

[00:18:13] saw in 2023 and that's tragically well before casting for 2024 basically we now have a wide

[00:18:20] zone of instability across the Sahel you know Molly and Burkina Faso in particular but increasingly

[00:18:26] seeing places in like Newshare and then slowly creeping down to kind of these little literal

[00:18:31] West African states so Benin Ghana etc. And if you kind of just look at a map and plot on the map

[00:18:39] over the past few years kind of the this geographic space of attacks you see not only the numbers

[00:18:46] increasing but the geographic breath expanding and that's obviously a huge threat because you're

[00:18:50] now in a region of this Sahel where you have growing jihadist influence and by the way growing

[00:18:55] influence from a number of other armed actors that aren't explicitly jihadist groups but a whole

[00:18:59] wide swap of militant rebel groups you've obviously had numerous coups in the region some countries

[00:19:06] have now seen multiple in the span of a few years you have French and Western forces that are

[00:19:12] being basically summarily kicked out of virtually all these countries and you have the United States

[00:19:18] that's now on the back foot even just yesterday though the Wall Street Journal reported that the US

[00:19:23] was now basically looking at drone bases in literal West African states with the implication being

[00:19:29] that it kind of had given up on Newshare which is its last main drone base region after the coup

[00:19:35] there earlier in 2023 so this is obviously a huge problem chiefly of course for the people there

[00:19:42] because you know these groups whether they're jihadist or not I mean just the scale of humanitarian

[00:19:47] tragedy and violence is appalling but of course it also has larger global ramifications you know

[00:19:54] groups that may be focused on local issues tend to not always stay that way they generally expand

[00:20:00] their you know goals beyond just immediate region that they're operating in and then of course

[00:20:06] what we've also seen is that as these groups are expanding it's opened up opportunities for Russia

[00:20:13] to insert its own influence there and you know tragically for these countries you know whose

[00:20:18] governments basically say oh well you know the French or the UN they aren't helping protect us we're

[00:20:22] going to bring in the Russian paramilitaries well the the tragic news is every single time that

[00:20:26] happens things only get worse because on surprisingly when you have Russian paramilitaria groups

[00:20:32] that are operating here that are perpetuating more abuses that are not focused on protecting civilians

[00:20:38] but more about protecting kind of the coup leaders of these countries etc it's a recipe for just a

[00:20:44] worsening situation but it does also give Russia a way to exert its influence particularly against

[00:20:50] France as the former colonial power and then obviously has global ramifications kind of just beyond

[00:20:56] the main region that we're talking about no indeed indeed so once keeping on definitely

[00:21:02] let's move on to the Middle East and North Africa yeah can you talk just about what to expect in those

[00:21:08] regions yes so perhaps unsurprising that Middle East is going to be a focus we decided

[00:21:16] you know you spoke earlier about having to make a last minute change and thankfully

[00:21:21] we didn't have to make a last minute change but based on our fourth quarter forecast which came

[00:21:27] out just before the hummus Israel war broke out the focus of our annual forecast changed dramatically

[00:21:34] from what we originally envisioned it being and so let me start obviously with the Israel

[00:21:39] hummus war because it's top of mind for everyone you know what we expect is that the intensity of

[00:21:44] the as the war is going to decline early in 2024 even you know last week we saw Israel say that

[00:21:49] it was going to start removing some troops from Gaza you know to put bluntly there's only so

[00:21:54] many so much more fighting that Israel can do in the territory it's very very small

[00:21:59] there's only so much so many more hummus militants that can kill given its current campaign

[00:22:06] and so at some point we expect in early 2024 that the fighting will decline but to be very clear

[00:22:12] the fighting will not end instead what we're expecting is kind of the net notable emergence

[00:22:19] of a hummus led insurgency in the strip um Israel you know has been completely unable to find

[00:22:25] a civilian partner that's willing and able to kind of take over after you know the the main

[00:22:30] fighting ends and that means it's effectively going to be forced to reoccupy the strip even though

[00:22:35] that's certainly not what anyone wants um and that will inevitably create a lot of animosity

[00:22:40] among the population even by Israel's own count I think it's you know recently as said it's estimated

[00:22:46] it's killed maybe eight or nine thousand to most militants even if you take that at face value

[00:22:51] Israel's own estimates you know put the number of hummus militants at far higher than that I think

[00:22:55] most recently this and it was about 30,000 so we're still talking about a lot of people uh

[00:23:00] that it ostensibly wants to kill or capture that are still around so we're going to see an

[00:23:05] insurgency there and then what we forecast and what is tragically coming true is the risk of regional

[00:23:10] escalation is absolutely going to remain on the table you know to be very clear all the parties involved

[00:23:16] despite rhetoric despite the instance we've seen for the past few weeks and months it's been very

[00:23:21] calibrated nobody is looking to actually stoke a direct confrontation here however there are so many

[00:23:28] fragile trip wires that it means that this risk is going to stay on the table whether or not people

[00:23:33] are actively trying to expand the conflict that could happen in a number of ways obviously we've

[00:23:38] seen the Houthis in Yemen um in attacks in the Red Sea most recently being one area of conflict

[00:23:44] the northern border with Lebanon I would argue is the one we're really watching out for

[00:23:48] and of course we've already seen a little bit of that just in the past week with the suspected I

[00:23:53] think all but certain Israeli attack um killing a hummus leader there in Beirut um and I should also

[00:24:00] flag you know Israel has made very clear uh that it intends to assassinate hummus leaders no matter

[00:24:05] where they are and so we can expect more of these attacks and more flash points and you know the

[00:24:11] the big uh kind of you know actor in the background is around itself you know despite it's very

[00:24:16] bellicose rhetoric um it has very clearly not wanted to directly confront Israel notably both

[00:24:23] sides have not you know explicitly blamed the other um for or taken credit for the October 7th attacks

[00:24:30] they are clearly trying to keep their conflict to a proxy conflict um but the the longer you know

[00:24:37] conflict goes on in Gaza the longer um you have the risk of Israeli retaliation into Lebanon that would

[00:24:43] really impact Iran's chief proxy which is Hizbullah and by the way the Iranian nuclear issue still

[00:24:49] in the background the more the risk of escalation it is going to be there yeah yeah indeed indeed well

[00:24:55] thank you for that um I was interested about the you mentioned about the uh rise of attacks

[00:25:00] potentially against oil and gas infrastructure places like Saudi Arabia I mean you could talk a

[00:25:05] little bit about that concern he said the is it the report yeah so you know one thing that we're

[00:25:11] focused on as a major area of potential escalation and one thing you know a lot of our our clients

[00:25:16] are thinking through is what is what is the pathway to which Iran or its proxies resume attacking

[00:25:23] civilian infrastructure particularly energy infrastructure critical infrastructure um and

[00:25:28] you know we've seen this happen previously um where um Iran and its proxies have gone after energy

[00:25:35] targets particularly in Saudi Arabia um and you know our concern right now is okay if Iran is

[00:25:42] trying or its proxies are trying to kind of asymmetrically hit back at the west um going after

[00:25:48] targets um for oil and gas infrastructure like major oil fields processing facilities export

[00:25:54] facilities etc um is one way to do it now so far um you've seen Saudi Arabia basically be at

[00:26:01] pains to not make itself a target for Iranian or proxy attacks you know for instance Saudi Arabia

[00:26:07] at least publicly has has not even signed up to the US maritime initiative in the Red Sea uh basically

[00:26:12] trying to stay out of the proverbial line of sight of Iran that's proxies and you know despite

[00:26:17] the the past few months of war we haven't seen any notable attacks within Saudi Arabia against oil

[00:26:23] and gas infrastructure um so this is one way though that things could really quickly spiral and

[00:26:28] there would also be an immediate effect on global oil prices uh because Saudi Arabia is just being

[00:26:34] the the linchpin of production in the region um and kind of the the war premium so to speak on

[00:26:40] top of an uncertainty of the global market would definitely see prices spike if you took offline

[00:26:45] for even just a number of days you know one of these major facilities yeah yeah that's called a

[00:26:49] big concern that so uh definitely want to keep an eye on on that one um let's move to Asia Pacific

[00:26:57] so yeah this is quite an interesting area because we've got the elections in Taiwan this year haven't we?

[00:27:02] yeah coming up that's going to be one of our first elections um and obviously this is also being

[00:27:07] watched intensely because of what it means for the China Taiwan dynamic you know I do want to

[00:27:12] be clear one piece of perhaps good news um you know we still don't think that a Chinese invasion

[00:27:18] of Taiwan is likely in 2024 um having said that there are a lot of things that can still go really

[00:27:25] really wrong um in the region that kind of interest closer to that scenario later this decade when

[00:27:30] we think it would be much more likely um so you know as you mentioned the thing that we're immediately

[00:27:35] starting out watching for is the the Taiwan use election um this is going to be taking place um

[00:27:41] I guess next weekend um given when we're recording this right now Chris um yeah and uh you know

[00:27:48] this is something that's going to see both the president and the legislator elected um and this

[00:27:53] is important because right now you have the DPP the party in charge that takes a comparatively more

[00:27:58] hawkish position on China more pro sovereignty and if polling is right um it's uh presidential candidate

[00:28:05] will win again um and that would keep the DPP in charge of the presidency which is both important

[00:28:11] practically and also symbolically now the legislature is a different matter um the DPP actually

[00:28:17] is probably not going to have a majority um which for Taiwan and its own policy making an internal

[00:28:22] dynamic system portant but where we're really focused on is the China Taiwan dynamic and who holds

[00:28:28] the presidency of Taiwan will absolutely affect that um you know as I said we're not forecasting any

[00:28:34] sort of Chinese invasion or anything approaching that if the DPP does win this election but what we do

[00:28:40] expect is a ramping up of that strategy of a military and economic coercion that we've seen

[00:28:45] for at least the past few years where China will input more trade restrictions on Taiwan um you'll

[00:28:51] see you know uh an uptick as as we've already seen the past few years of military exercises air

[00:28:58] incursions um of its uh airspace um naval incursions of nearby seas um and all these serve not only

[00:29:06] as kind of a coercive symbolic effect but also there practical ways for the Chinese to practice an

[00:29:13] eventual invasion or other form of kind of military um aggression against Taiwan and you know I

[00:29:20] should flag that we think of Taiwan as one island um and it does have one main island but that's not

[00:29:26] the only case it does have one that's for instance much much closer to Chinese territory and much

[00:29:32] far north from Taiwan which you know to be blunt if China were to ever you know try to attack it would

[00:29:37] easily overcome the Taiwanese defenses there so you know when we're thinking about Taiwan and

[00:29:42] and ways of this situation could escalate but not result in formal war what China does with you

[00:29:48] know this island what it does maybe with sea cables around Taiwan cyber attacks constant uh you

[00:29:54] know um harassment of its airspace and naval territory all these are on the table and they matter

[00:30:00] beyond the region um because obviously you know a global you know or China Taiwan war would have

[00:30:06] massive global identifications um again now we're forecasting this year but assuming that there is a

[00:30:12] DPP presidency again and you have the continual ramping up of this coercive strategy in later years

[00:30:18] some sort of Chinese aggression becomes more likely and that would have global economic military

[00:30:24] political ramifications that honestly pale compared to the Russian invasion of Ukraine not least

[00:30:29] because it would be almost assured that the United States uh would get involved in some way yeah

[00:30:35] yeah we definitely don't know what that's uh it's happened one other one of the thing that stood out

[00:30:39] in the report to me was about the um it's about sort of the tech sector and how the US is trying

[00:30:43] to decouple its supply chain from China that could benefit other Southeast Asian kind of countries

[00:30:50] um I don't know if you think you can talk about with that yeah so you know I guess we we spoke

[00:30:54] about this a little bit at the beginning of the Biden administration strategy because of the China

[00:30:58] has really been to try to throttle its tech sector via various restrictions on um on exports

[00:31:04] the country both from US suppliers but then also other global suppliers talking chiefly in the

[00:31:09] semiconductor industry uh but you know beyond that and so this is definitely something we expect to

[00:31:14] just kind of slowly expand not only with more restrictions in areas that we've seen but also a

[00:31:19] slow expansion um into other high tech areas and things like AI technologies communications etc um

[00:31:27] and you know you know if you're thinking about how uh to throttle Chinese economic development

[00:31:33] restricting some of these key technologies um is a real pain point um in the Chinese economy has

[00:31:39] been able to overcome some of them but there's some real gaps that it won't be able to fill if it

[00:31:43] loses access to some of these things um that of course is notable not only for China but also for

[00:31:49] a lot of other countries because it opens them up um to potential Chinese retaliation if they're

[00:31:55] joined kind of this US-led campaign it also opens up a number of business opportunities and economic

[00:32:00] opportunities if uh companies say are now moving out of China um and moving into other parts of

[00:32:06] you know southeast and south Asia now obviously there are a lot of broader global economic developments

[00:32:11] that affect that um but this US led pressure campaign on on Chinese high tech is only going to ramp

[00:32:17] up further in 2024 yeah yeah thank you for that well let's take a quick break and then we'll be right

[00:32:22] back

[00:32:37] well let's move on to the Americas um and we've got obviously elections in Mexico uh and other things

[00:32:44] kind of going on there so let's just have a look at that area yeah so mexica was another election

[00:32:49] that i think uh despite it being our our southern border here in the united states um most of us

[00:32:54] here and probably the rest of the world have not been paying too much attention to the election here

[00:32:59] this is slightly uh i would say less significant from a policy standpoint because we do expect general

[00:33:05] policy continuity from the outgoing government you're only allowed to sort of one term as the

[00:33:09] mexican president um to the new one um given kind of what current polling indicates um but you

[00:33:15] know the the US-Mexico dynamic in terms of border security and migration is really something that

[00:33:22] is going to occupy not only the attention of the mexican election but also the US election i mean

[00:33:27] if we were to forecast what is going to be for instance a top issue in the US race it's already

[00:33:32] been seen you know the border um is absolutely going to to be you know a crucial uh topic of

[00:33:38] discussion and and what's something that the democrats are going to be under constant pressure

[00:33:42] from republicans over kind of their alleged inability to to handle the migration within mexico one

[00:33:48] of the main things that we're looking at and this actually connects quite nicely back to our previous

[00:33:52] conversation crisis mexico as a destination for proverbial near shoring friend shoring mexico

[00:33:59] was really trying to take advantage of a lot of companies that are now either looking or fully

[00:34:06] moving out of china and other parts of asia to move closer to the united states um and you know

[00:34:12] it's had some successes here uh but uh there are also some major challenges um including uh with

[00:34:18] its energy sector um you know the the current president uh amlo has had a somewhat controversial

[00:34:25] policy here um his predecessor or his successor who who we expect to come from you know kind of his

[00:34:31] his hand pick successor likely to to ship some things here um so this is something that we're

[00:34:36] looking at very closely because the whether or not mexico can really capitalize on this drive

[00:34:42] to become a destination for companies that are leaving china is a bit of an open question we've

[00:34:47] seen some some successes but whether it can truly take advantage uh remains to be seen yeah yeah

[00:34:54] are there any thoughts on um the situation kind of developing in venous wailer at the moment

[00:34:59] it's a great question and that's also one of the tensions is we we limit we're limited in the

[00:35:03] things that we can address um and you know they're there plenty of other topics that we left on the

[00:35:08] proverbial cutting room floor so to speak where we talked about that we decided ultimately wasn't going

[00:35:13] to be as significant we wanted to focus on other things but the situation of venous wailer is uh

[00:35:18] an important one and so i can briefly address you know we actually saw quite a bit of movement

[00:35:23] on this issue um in the last weeks of 2023 with the uh kind of back and forth between the government

[00:35:31] and nicole's mdoro and the opposition you know the the opposition despite clearly having a lot

[00:35:37] of popular support has really been neutered by by caracas um you know security services have just

[00:35:43] clamped down on public unrest really prevent the opposition from gaining traction um

[00:35:48] mexico irksimae dan is waila in theory uh we'll have quote unquote elections uh this year

[00:35:53] we don't expect them to be free and fair we expect nicole's mdoro's government to remain in power

[00:35:59] um and you know as a major energy producer as a major resource of of emigrants that are heading

[00:36:05] towards the united states you know what happens in men's wailer matters you know beyond the

[00:36:09] beyond the country um it also has a big impact saying on security in columbia um a lot of

[00:36:15] columbian orange groups or you know i kind of have safe havens in venezuela in territory um so there

[00:36:21] are a whole lot of ways in which venezuela matters beyond the country but the short answer is we don't

[00:36:27] expect there to to be any sort of democratic revolution nicole's mdoro and his cronies will stay

[00:36:32] in power um and the humanitarian and security tragedy there will definitely just uh continue

[00:36:38] yeah yeah one last thing in the america's we move on um i noticed you mentioned in the report about

[00:36:43] argentina expecting um unrest and it it just flagged up to me because last time uh things got bad

[00:36:50] in argentina it led to the invasion of the folklands i was just wondering should that be

[00:36:55] told to keep an eye out for i i i i i do feel confident in saying that the the falklands or the

[00:37:01] the milvina sivirida to take the origin time perspective are not on the table for for 2024 um

[00:37:08] but you know we've already seen kind of some of what we expected just in the past few weeks since

[00:37:13] libertarian president javier mille has taken office you know he's made good on his pledges to

[00:37:18] radically try to who change the economy um he's obviously facing some pushback both in the courts

[00:37:25] and in the legislature uh but he is basically pulling all the levers um that he is kind of promised

[00:37:30] so far he hasn't gone as far as trying yet to de-dolarize the economy as he pledged but in terms of

[00:37:36] deregulating it um removing subsidies etc if he's he's firing on all cylinders at the moment um

[00:37:42] and so while there may be a long-term economic gain from that i mean you know the argentine

[00:37:47] economy has been just kind of a tragedy for many years now inflation is an unemployment or at

[00:37:53] record levels um it's you know if you're trying to start or operate a business there it's

[00:37:58] incredibly difficult with different exchange rates and export tariffs etc so there may be long-term

[00:38:04] gains uh the problem is those won't be realized for some time and in the near term there's going to be

[00:38:10] more proverbial pain as these things get implemented so for instance you know already we've seen

[00:38:16] a few you know mass protests led by unions pushing back against these things and so looking at

[00:38:22] 2024 you know this risk of social unrest is going to remain high we're gonna see a lot more

[00:38:28] policy back and forth as mille battles with the courts and the legislature to try to get his

[00:38:33] reforms implemented and while you know they may end up creating a better economic situation

[00:38:39] he's going to be under constant political pressure and the constant right of social unrest through

[00:38:45] the course of the year absolutely yeah thank you for that but close to home for me then let's talk

[00:38:49] a little bit about what's going to be happening in europe is again quite a few things going on

[00:38:56] yeah and you know it's part of this is headlined by the fact that we are going to have parliamentary

[00:39:00] elections midway through the year um and believe it or not the the european parliament does in fact

[00:39:06] matter you know especially as we've seen in quite a few countries not all but quite a few

[00:39:11] a bit of a right word shift in recent elections so the expectation that you know

[00:39:17] right wing parties will do comparatively better is definitely saying we're looking at what that

[00:39:21] means for things like the energy transition for support for Ukraine etc all things to bear in mind

[00:39:28] but there are you know a couple of you know key countries obviously we're always looking at

[00:39:33] thinking through within the european union you know obviously the chief powers germany france

[00:39:38] you know our basic outlook here is a lot of policy gridlock you have the sholts government in

[00:39:44] germany that's you know leading this very precarious so-called traffic light coalition of three main

[00:39:50] parties it's under significant pressure it's struggling to implement its policies we're not for seeing

[00:39:57] an early election just yet because basically all the parties know that if there were to be

[00:40:03] one they would probably lose so it's on their interest but it's going to really slow down policy

[00:40:08] making in germany and then similarly in france you have a parliament that's continuing to push back

[00:40:13] against president macron and you know we even just saw a few weeks ago with like this debate over

[00:40:19] an immigration bill there um that the the political political stability in france is definitely

[00:40:25] under threat as you have kind of a divided legislative and executive branch and that's just going

[00:40:31] to make kind of getting anything done very very hard for from a crown in the rest of the government

[00:40:36] yeah and i think i think also you mentioned there are put there's an unease in europe about the

[00:40:40] american elections that are coming up and this potential um whether this will come up in the

[00:40:45] election i thought sure but it's potential desire to sort of become more independent from american

[00:40:51] support that there was anything on there you wanted to mention yeah absolutely and this might be one

[00:40:56] if you can call it a positive positive from a cron who's really led to the european champion

[00:41:01] to be quote unquote strategic autonomy um which means a lot of things to different people uh but

[00:41:07] you know in blunt terms i think basically refers the idea europe needs to be able to support itself

[00:41:12] more on its own and less dependent on america for um chiefly military but also economic support

[00:41:18] and so you know if you have growing on use in europe of another trump presidency and we know that

[00:41:24] what that will mean for kind of alliance and partner structures uh significant decrease in them

[00:41:30] um this is a potential gain from a cron as he's been really the one champion this policy so

[00:41:35] we do expect there to be more noises about this in 2024 especially as the election in the united

[00:41:40] states and years um and you know if trump does in fact win uh you can expect that our 2025 forecast

[00:41:48] will have uh quite a a lot to say on what this means for countries in europe um that have been

[00:41:53] the traditional you know alliance partners for the united states yeah yeah indeed well before we

[00:41:58] move on to uraja be uh remiss to not mention the uk because we've got elections coming up this year

[00:42:04] and i was just intrigued uh by what the report was saying about that and um yeah i'll let you i'll let

[00:42:10] you talk to us a bit about that yeah i mean because you maybe we should have you write our forecast

[00:42:16] um as you know our our own on the ground uh you know the i think it's safe to say that the conservative

[00:42:21] party is is under siege all over both in within the party um massive splits uh but also then

[00:42:28] obviously it you know it's pulling tremendously behind at the opposition labor party and so

[00:42:33] if you believe the polls um it's kind of just a matter of how badly the the conservatives will lose

[00:42:39] the election um you know we're not in the business of necessarily calling elections but we aren't

[00:42:44] business of forecasting what will happen if a different party wins or if there's you know um policy

[00:42:49] continuity between governments um and so you know up into the the election you can expect the

[00:42:55] conservatives to try to do a number of kind of you know populist handouts uh try to to drum up some

[00:43:01] support but there's going to be this inevitable tension between a more kind of um extreme white

[00:43:06] part of the party um and it's probably more um centrist rightist if that makes sense um and in

[00:43:12] prime minister soonach really faces are a really challenging balance like act here because on the

[00:43:16] one hand he needs the support of the right wing of this party to to basically do anything but at

[00:43:23] the other hand time if he kind of gives into them so to speak and takes increasingly right wing

[00:43:28] positions that alienates him with a number of voters uh and makes the labor case uh even easier so

[00:43:34] you know i i know even i think just yesterday we're we're recording this on friday you know

[00:43:38] soonach basically intimated that the second half of the year was likely to be an election rather than

[00:43:43] the first half so i suppose he's gambling that maybe the conservatives can make up a little bit

[00:43:48] of ground in the first few months and at least not lose as badly um but you know the the the

[00:43:54] torries are certainly in a tough spot yeah they are i'm just my my fear is um it's it reminds me

[00:44:02] a little bit of 2015 um there was a similar situation with the polls where it felt like that

[00:44:09] the conservatives were definitely going to go after their first term um and then obviously they

[00:44:15] didn't so it'll be really it's really difficult to say what's gonna happen at british politics because

[00:44:19] so many things could happen and affect things um but uh there definitely is a sense of change is coming

[00:44:26] but yeah sorry one one positive thing that you know i think we can say Chris is that the the

[00:44:30] rapprochement between London and Brussels um is you know another positive sign for 2024 you know

[00:44:36] obviously in the wake of Brexit um we've now a number of years out and there's still unresolved

[00:44:42] issues but under you know soonach's government we've seen you know increasingly positive relations

[00:44:47] between uh UK and Europe but this is another one of those issues where intro party disputes with

[00:44:54] in the conservatives are are challenged because you obviously have still a right wing faction that

[00:44:59] wants nothing to do with the European Union um but progress that we've seen on and things on

[00:45:04] chiefly like the northern island protocol etc um have suggested that you're going to see at least

[00:45:10] a closer relationship even if there's still a number of disputes there's you know some unpleasant

[00:45:15] rhetoric um we're not seeing this sort of massive divergence between the UK and the EU um that

[00:45:21] couldn't be in the truly worst case scenario yeah indeed indeed well let's move on to Eurasia um

[00:45:29] because we've obviously got the continuing war for Ukraine and as we mentioned earlier the

[00:45:32] Russian elections yeah you mean the the Russian elections I think we can safely say as I mentioned

[00:45:39] earlier are not exactly going to be elections but more of another coronation um expect Putin

[00:45:44] to remain in power um you know we the the only thing I would say that's really notable for

[00:45:50] um the domestic situation Russia is still in the context of the Ukraine war what we expect from

[00:45:55] mobilization you know Putin's really been at pains uh to not portray this as a formal war you know

[00:46:01] still referring to it as a special military operation trying to keep semblance of normalcy

[00:46:07] uh but you know the the more Russia repairs for a long-term conflict um even if it's one of a

[00:46:11] tradition that it you know is succeeding in the more the economy the society needs to be put on

[00:46:17] that war footing and the harder it is to kind of pretend that this isn't an actual war um

[00:46:21] and so he's going to continue to basically we expect certainly before the election no major

[00:46:27] mobilization nothing full there's a you know greater likelihood at least comparatively that later

[00:46:32] in the year you could see some more mobilization but our basic forecasts as we still expect Putin to

[00:46:37] to try to avoid anything resembling a a formal official looking draft um and more rely on kind of ad

[00:46:44] hawk means so you know even earlier this week we saw him sign a decree basically saying that if

[00:46:49] you fight for the Russian army or crucially Russian paramilitary forces you and your families can

[00:46:54] become Russian citizens so basically you know giving for instance foreigners the opportunity um if

[00:47:00] anyone would really like that I'm not sure why to to become a Russian citizen and fight that way

[00:47:06] you know going to say more um uh uh uh convict um mobilization taking people from prisons

[00:47:15] those type of things but we don't expect that there's going to be you know certainly not before

[00:47:21] the election and you sort of formal mobilization again um even though Russia definitely still needs

[00:47:26] more manpower in Ukraine. What was the report talk about with Ukraine what do we think the outcome

[00:47:31] will be for this year? Yeah so this is you know something that uh has definitely changed significantly

[00:47:38] and are thinking from um 2023 to 2024 you know 2023 or forecast uh was that Ukraine would struggle

[00:47:46] to make significant gains in this uh counteroffensive which which is what came true but there was a lot

[00:47:52] more momentum behind the Ukrainian cause. This year I would say the the script is flipped in that

[00:47:58] Ukraine is definitely now much more on the defensive I mean thinking ahead towards as we spoke

[00:48:03] about at the beginning um the kind of falling western support um or at least delayed western support

[00:48:11] you know that's a trend that's only going to accelerate over the course of the year and Ukraine

[00:48:15] fundamentally is still you know heavily reliant on the west for military and economic assistance um and

[00:48:21] so you know our basic expectation is this is now um kind of a more defensive battle we don't expect

[00:48:28] any major territorial changes uh obviously there will be smaller offensive you know you've seen

[00:48:33] even just in recent days Russia um appearing like it for instance it could make some moves around

[00:48:38] carkeev uh in Ukraine uh but fundamentally you know the defensive lines are now incredibly well dug in

[00:48:45] both sides are kind of hoping that the US election in the fall and other European polls you know

[00:48:51] resulting governments that are either more pro-Ukrainian or pro-Russian um and so fundamentally we see

[00:48:57] this really as as a stalemate in 2024 our forecast for 2025 there will be a significant based on

[00:49:04] the outcome of what we see in a lot of these elections because for instance if the Trump

[00:49:07] administration returns to the right house you get more right wing governments and number of European

[00:49:11] countries that's going to really give Vladimir Putin a nice birthday present and really put

[00:49:17] Ukraine on the defensive and so that would open up 2025 uh to be a different story but for now it's

[00:49:22] much more one of kind of a awaited see um uh stalemate as we see it yeah thank you for that

[00:49:29] let's take a look at South Asia what should we expect in that region yeah so this is probably the

[00:49:35] one Chris that actually I might say interests me on a personal level the most uh because you have

[00:49:41] a huge amount of elections here not least in the world's largest democracy India uh that actually

[00:49:46] is so large that it takes multiple weeks to complete uh but even just this coming weekend you're

[00:49:51] going to see really crucial polls in Bangladesh um we're also going to see contested elections

[00:49:55] at Pakistan Sri Lanka we'll see local votes so you've got a huge chunk of the region voting um

[00:50:02] and this is an area of the world where you see a huge amount of competition um between China and

[00:50:08] the United States for influence um you also see a lot of attempts by Russia to remain relevant

[00:50:15] and uh particularly with its key partners uh kind of that it's had for its oil sales and military

[00:50:21] sales and say Pakistan India um but uh you know fundamentally if you're looking at the the key

[00:50:28] countries here it's obviously India um we're you know again we're not in the business of calling

[00:50:33] an election but if you believe the polls the most likely scenario is Narendra Modi's BJP party will

[00:50:39] win re-election you know they they've seen uh on the whole largely unstoppable um you know the

[00:50:45] the opposition congress party faces a huge number of challenges not least of which is is that it can't

[00:50:50] really seem to to galvanize people in the way it used to and it's you're really been circumscribed

[00:50:55] and some you know political um you know political abilities to really implement any significant policies

[00:51:00] in a few areas that it does control in the country um so you know we're expecting you know a lot of

[00:51:07] kind of policy continuity um from the Modi government assuming it's re-elected uh which is

[00:51:11] which is a kind of proverbial um positive and negative thing depending on how you look at certain

[00:51:16] issues so you know on the one hand you're likely to see a lot more kind of Hindu nationalist rhetoric

[00:51:22] which is obviously a concern um not just for for India but for for the world um if you have a government

[00:51:28] that's increasingly marginalizing or at least being alleged to marginalize say you know the massive

[00:51:33] muscle minority that it has i mean there's real risks violent unrest surrounding the polls um more

[00:51:38] contentious issues um on the other hand you're also likely to see a lot more efforts by another

[00:51:44] Modi government to continue to continue with economic development things like the maiden India plan

[00:51:48] which are is again like kind of like Mexico like other countries try and take advantage of companies

[00:51:54] that are looking for new places to make goods um and India trying to establish itself as that center

[00:52:01] it faces a number of stumbling blocks and not least of which is red tape um that you know the

[00:52:06] Modi government has been trying to slash but there's just a lot to do um and so those are some of the

[00:52:11] things that we'll be looking at in India of course the 2024 yeah and um there's also an election

[00:52:16] in Pakistan happening this year as well isn't there is anything you mentioned about that yes i mean

[00:52:21] this is a huge back and forth here you know elections in Pakistan are sadly always you know

[00:52:27] thought of as important because of the risk of violence and this is tragically you know confirming

[00:52:32] that trend um but you know the the Pakistanis have really had a kind of a miserable trifecta

[00:52:39] political economic and security crises all going on at the same time um and so against that backdrop

[00:52:45] you have um you know an election that theoretically is supposed to be held at the beginning of February

[00:52:51] we'll see if that protaps gets delayed which would be its own issue um and a lot of this is

[00:52:56] centered around former prime minister Imran Khan who was you know forced out of office um it has

[00:53:01] basically been trying to lead a popular opposition movement since then um he's really been clamped

[00:53:07] down upon by the Pakistani government um and its backers in the military um but whether or not he's

[00:53:14] able to sufficiently galvanize enough people at the polls um next month will be a key thing to watch

[00:53:19] and even if he doesn't succeed if he's able to frame himself as kind of the victim and a

[00:53:24] ledge in propriety is you have a really combustible situation unfortunately in Pakistan and I don't

[00:53:30] even you know mean to elevate you know everybody always talks about Pakistan it's a nuclear armed

[00:53:34] country we don't even need to go there um we don't need to involve nuclear weapons it's combustible

[00:53:37] already on its own just by the power cuts the militant attacks that's been facing the massive

[00:53:42] political instability um so this is another another thing to watch and obviously you know what happens

[00:53:48] in Pakistan um has a huge roundifications uh beyond just the region given the the weight

[00:53:53] that it holds um definitely definitely well thank you so much we managed to get through all the

[00:53:57] regions so thank you so much for that um I did have one last question because this year's kind of

[00:54:02] the year of elections I wondered whether or not this might be the year of an increased risk of

[00:54:09] low-level terrorism especially in Europe because usually when there are elections there are

[00:54:13] gonna let political groups and terrorist groups who like to try and sort of um take advantage

[00:54:18] of that and I don't know whether there was anything mentioned um in your offices about

[00:54:22] out about that kind of topic there yes or in fact our other um more tactical security forecast

[00:54:28] that we didn't focus on today it does include this quite a bit um and our basic expectation is

[00:54:32] yes across the board the terrorist threat to the west is going to increase in 2024 driven not

[00:54:38] only by a number of elections but by fallout from the Gaza conflict of course um and I should also

[00:54:44] be clear here we're not just talking about Islamist extremism but also far right extremism

[00:54:48] um a whole disparate set of extremist ideologies here um so not only do you have elections

[00:54:54] and the fallout from Gaza but I should also point out you have a number of high profile other

[00:54:58] events like for instance the Olympics in Paris um you know even for weeks now you know the French

[00:55:04] security forces have been almost weekly coming out with new updates on what they're planning to do

[00:55:09] to try to prevent attacks and so you know when we're thinking about the terrorist threat to the west

[00:55:13] you know since you know I would say approximately 2018 or so when ISIS really lost um it's last

[00:55:20] major territory um in or in Iraq and Syria the threat has mainly been from low-nactors small groups

[00:55:27] of individuals in the west kind of inspired by some of these foreign terrorist groups we have

[00:55:32] thankfully and you know I'll knock wood on my desk here and not seeing you know any sort of

[00:55:36] replication of the the major directed attacks that we saw earlier in the 2010s uh for instance

[00:55:43] obviously the most tragic ones being in Paris but in a number of other countries in the west

[00:55:47] and so what we're seeing here still you know if you're thinking from a security services point of

[00:55:52] you on the one hand when you're dealing with low-nactors in small cells they can in general in general

[00:55:59] do less damage than a kind of coordinated directed terrorist attack when you only have one or two people

[00:56:04] you know just the the amount of violence you can cause is comparatively limited the challenges it's

[00:56:09] much harder to identify those people in advance so that's why you see kind of these lower level

[00:56:14] sophistication attacks whether it's a stabbing that's horrific on its own um but you know

[00:56:20] compared to what a foreign directed attack could do thankfully less intense the flip side of this

[00:56:25] is that you know terrorist groups whether it's ISIS al-Qaeda etc have been under significant

[00:56:30] counterterrorism pressure abroad but that doesn't mean they've stopped plotting I mean obviously

[00:56:34] we saw just earlier uh this week uh ISIS claimed these twin bombings in Iran um you know showing that

[00:56:41] it really can still cause a lot of damage and it has strong intent to go after minority groups in

[00:56:46] the west um and so you know the pace of plotting um and aspirational goals in these groups absolutely

[00:56:51] remains and so when you're thinking through ways the 2024 could differ we assess that in general

[00:56:58] the the threat of some of these foreign uh groups being able to successfully conduct a mass

[00:57:03] casualty attack while still very constrained the increase it has increased a bit in likelihood just

[00:57:09] given the global events that you talked about whether it's you know elections these other

[00:57:13] hope-rived file developments the fallout from the the Gaza war in which you know Islamist extremists

[00:57:18] in particular are absolutely looking to take advantage of that um and so I would say yes in general

[00:57:24] the terrorism threat has increased and while these foreign groups still face a lot of constraints

[00:57:28] on their ability to mount an attack we definitely uh are concerned that there is a little at least

[00:57:33] this year a little more of an opening that they might be able to do something yeah yeah one's

[00:57:37] definitely keep an eye on well thank you very much for all that um Sam is reading else about

[00:57:41] anything that we've talked about today it's important to you'd like to add at all oh boy well

[00:57:45] we you know I think we did pretty good job Chris going over the entire globe yeah uh there's

[00:57:49] there's a lot of different things we didn't get a chance to touch on uh but I guess maybe I'll say

[00:57:55] that uh you know for anyone that's interested you can obviously read our work at rainnetwork.com

[00:58:01] we publish three more quarterly updates so you'll be able to see uh the trends that we got right

[00:58:06] hopefully very few things that we got wrong um and otherwise uh I just really appreciate you

[00:58:12] having me on and taking the time to to chart out what we think 2024 will look like yeah well no thank

[00:58:16] you for your time i will just add i think the report is beautifully presented some great maps and

[00:58:21] infographics on there um it is definitely very much worth people pursuing and finding out more about

[00:58:27] if they can so uh you know thank you for sharing it with me um and thank you for your time today so

[00:58:33] yeah Sam you take care and i look forward to catching again in the near future thanks very much Chris

[00:58:39] so

[00:59:02] thanks for listening this is secrets and spies

[00:59:08] so

[00:59:38] so