S9 Ep10: Espresso Martini | Trump’s Coming War on the Intelligence Community, Russia’s Sabotage Campaign, and America’s Future at a Crossroads

[00:00:04] Secrets and Spies presents Espresso Martini with Chris Carr and Matt Fulton.

[00:00:29] Hello everybody and welcome to Espresso Martini. Matt, how are you doing?

[00:00:33] Hey Chris, I'm good. Good to see you back from the week we spent together in DC.

[00:00:41] Yes, this is our first time online since meeting each other for the first time offline, which is cool.

[00:00:47] And what a week that was. It was great to sort of hang out with you and meet you in person.

[00:00:51] And thank you again for your time and showing me around the sites.

[00:00:55] Sure. Yeah, happy to. Yeah, I think we had a good time together. I mean, it was a good, interesting time to be down there.

[00:01:00] Yes, indeed. Indeed it was. I mean, you know, I reflect on it and think I had a, you know, I feel like I had a really amazing trip.

[00:01:09] But obviously it was on the backdrop of this very dramatic election and the results of the election.

[00:01:16] I literally was getting on a plane on the morning of the results and it felt like I was about to fly into a hurricane a little bit.

[00:01:24] It was a bit like, wow, you know, the weather in England was terrible that morning and it was very dramatic.

[00:01:29] And I was just thinking to myself, why, what am I doing? Should I be getting on this plane?

[00:01:33] Am I flying into a disaster zone or something? It didn't turn out that bad.

[00:01:39] It didn't turn out that bad. Thank God, you know, and landing in Baltimore and spending some time there.

[00:01:45] If anything, probably it was probably quite nice being out of DC for a few days before coming to DC.

[00:01:51] And no, honestly, it was a really a trip of a lifetime.

[00:01:55] There's many memories from that trip. I'll carry with me through to the bitter end.

[00:01:59] You know, it was a really, really great trip and really nice to see a lot of the sites and go to quite a few cool spy bars.

[00:02:07] And, you know, we went to the site of Pizzagate.

[00:02:11] Oh, we went to we had dinner, Comet Ping Pong.

[00:02:13] Yeah. Yeah. We went to Comic Ping Pong, which is the home of the famous Pizzagate incident.

[00:02:19] And all I can say is their pizza was very good.

[00:02:21] I have no idea why somebody would think there was some weird Illuminati deep state kind of operation going on there.

[00:02:28] The only mystery was how on earth to get into the toilet because there seemed to be no door handle on the loose.

[00:02:33] Yeah. Yeah. It was interesting.

[00:02:35] I could sort of see your reaction like when we I had been there before, but it was interesting to like see your reaction walking in.

[00:02:43] I think it really hit you to like to see this, like, yeah, I don't know, kind of like hipstery neighborhood, like pizza joint walking in and like, yeah, I could see it on your face.

[00:02:52] Like just thought of like, why would why would someone possibly think that this is the location of like, it's like awful like trafficking ring or something.

[00:03:01] You just I know it was insane.

[00:03:03] And, you know, it could have been for people in London.

[00:03:06] This this pizza restaurant could have been somewhere out of Shoreditch, you know, had exposed brickwork.

[00:03:10] It was very cool.

[00:03:12] It had some ping pong tables down the other end where people play ping pong and had this little ping pong theme going on.

[00:03:18] And it's the last place.

[00:03:20] It's the last place I'd expect the deep state to be doing anything other than maybe having a pizza.

[00:03:25] It was really bonkers and lovely place to go to.

[00:03:29] I'm so happy.

[00:03:30] And I got myself.

[00:03:31] Yeah, I've got myself a memento.

[00:03:34] I've got a comic ping pong hat there.

[00:03:38] I hope the camera's gone.

[00:03:40] And we also went to another famous.

[00:03:42] We went to a famous spy bar, didn't we?

[00:03:44] Which you're wearing the T-shirt for right now.

[00:03:46] And I've also got a hat for the Vienna Inn.

[00:03:49] Yes.

[00:03:49] And the Vienna Inn, you know, is famous as a sort of watering hole for CIA officers when they're off duty.

[00:03:56] And so we went there and it was I was quite amused by we sort of befriended this Irish couple who sat next to us.

[00:04:06] And the lady said, do you realize this is a dive bar?

[00:04:10] And it just cracked me up that day.

[00:04:11] And I should have said to her, do you realize this is a spy bar?

[00:04:14] But I didn't.

[00:04:15] And it was just so funny when she said that.

[00:04:17] And then she warned us about, you know, be careful of the chili dogs, etc.

[00:04:21] And all I can say is the chili dogs were great.

[00:04:23] The beer was nice and cold.

[00:04:25] And it was a wonderful bar.

[00:04:26] The staff were lovely.

[00:04:27] The staff knew a little bit about the history because some of their patrons have obviously explained things to them over the years and stuff.

[00:04:35] And there's some as a little equalizer three sort of poster that explains one connection to the Vienna Inn.

[00:04:43] But no, it was so cool to go to this legendary place and hang out there.

[00:04:49] Yeah, no, it was it was it was a cool it was a cool.

[00:04:52] Yeah, definitely.

[00:04:53] It was it was cool seeing you and kind of being being in D.C. at the time we were there and, you know, talking to some of the people we spoke to Shane Harris among them.

[00:05:03] He very nice minutes for minutes for coffee.

[00:05:07] Yeah, it was it was an interesting time.

[00:05:10] And I think it's going to be the start of a very interesting few years in this country.

[00:05:15] We're and for the world, too.

[00:05:16] I mean, we're going to talk about some of it here.

[00:05:22] Then in the topics we have today.

[00:05:24] But yeah, a lot of finding out in store.

[00:05:27] Indeed, well, we had a lot of fun and it's unfortunate that the U.S. is at such a kind of crossroads.

[00:05:34] There's so much uncertainty at the moment about whether because, you know, not going too far into obviously Trump made certain statements before the election that he would like be a dictator on day one.

[00:05:45] And they were going to go after his political enemies, etc.

[00:05:47] And obviously, we don't know at this stage whether that's all bluster or whether he's going to follow through with that.

[00:05:54] And so some of the stories today will, you know, give you some insight in some of those anxieties that hang over America at this time.

[00:06:03] And in many respects across the world, you know, because there's that famous expression when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.

[00:06:10] Yeah.

[00:06:11] And, you know, certainly I know in Ukraine, there's a lot of anxiety at the moment.

[00:06:16] Russia have definitely stepped up their assaults against Ukraine at the moment.

[00:06:21] They somewhat appear emboldened by what's going on.

[00:06:25] And Ukraine are taking heavy losses right now.

[00:06:29] So I fear for the future of Ukraine at the moment and what kind of deal that because President Trump or President-elect Trump has said that, you know, he's going to stop the war on day one.

[00:06:41] Good luck.

[00:06:41] But, you know, it sounds like that he's going to try and do some sort of deal with Putin.

[00:06:47] And who knows what that deal will look like?

[00:06:49] And will it be fair for the Ukrainians?

[00:06:53] I mean, if there's again, it's so much of this is an open question right now.

[00:06:58] And, you know, we'll see how it how it how it shakes out.

[00:07:04] Zelensky from the few conversations that he's had with Trump since the election, Zelensky does not seem to be utterly panicked.

[00:07:14] And there's a report when they met before the election, a few months before the election, I believe it was during the summer.

[00:07:22] No, it was in September.

[00:07:24] They met in New York during the U.N. General Assembly.

[00:07:29] There was a report that came out recently about that meeting.

[00:07:32] And Trump apparently said to Zelensky, you know, I promise you'll be you'll be happy with me, which.

[00:07:40] I mean, there's a whole issue there of like, do you take him at his word?

[00:07:44] Do you trust him about anything?

[00:07:46] And I'm sure there are plenty of people that would say no.

[00:07:48] And I think that's a totally reasonable response.

[00:07:52] I don't know. I think Trump and Zelensky's body language before going into that meeting would not have suggested that.

[00:08:01] But it's it's something and we'll wait and see.

[00:08:05] I mean, I think for what it's worth.

[00:08:08] The war in Ukraine would have ended in some sort of a negotiated settlement, even if Harris had won.

[00:08:14] I mean, wars, wars just don't end in total victory.

[00:08:19] But what the what the details of that negotiated settlement is remain to be remain to be seen.

[00:08:27] I would I would just hope that it's as as positive for the Ukrainians as it as it possibly could be.

[00:08:33] Indeed, indeed. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:08:35] And I think, you know, so one thing I would say about Zelensky as well is there might be some people who are maybe shocked by his positive.

[00:08:44] Language towards Trump.

[00:08:46] And my thoughts on that are is that Zelensky is a realist and he has the future of his entire country on his shoulders right now.

[00:08:55] And he knows about Donald Trump and he knows Donald Trump can be very thin skinned sometimes.

[00:09:00] All we have to do is say the wrong thing and Trump can turn on you.

[00:09:05] And I think Zelensky is very well aware of that.

[00:09:08] And Zelensky will, you know, for the sake of his country, be as positive and warm as he can towards Trump.

[00:09:15] Yeah.

[00:09:16] Whether he feels that or not, I don't know.

[00:09:18] I cannot speak for Zelensky, but I can see already there are some people of the sort of lefty liberal side who are a bit put out by Zelensky's language.

[00:09:27] And I don't want to see people turning on Zelensky just because he, for the sake of his country, has to, you know, build a positive rapport with President Donald Trump.

[00:09:36] Yeah, I saw some of that even on election night and the morning after, you know, Olaf Scholz, Macron, Zelensky himself were kind of, you know, congratulating Trump and saying kind of broadly complimentary, you know, things to him.

[00:09:53] And there were people responding on Twitter, you know, the kind of like resistance-y left side of Twitter that were, you know, really like, you know, saying like, oh, you're, you know, folding right away.

[00:10:04] And we talked about this before, but it's just, I just, I think they're doing what they feel they need to do in the best interests of their country and in the transatlantic alliance.

[00:10:13] And, you know, that's, that's the reality that we're in right now.

[00:10:17] I mean, I think, and we'll get into the topics here in a second and talk about it a bit more.

[00:10:22] But as far as what we do here and everything over the next couple of years, I mean, we're, I don't, I don't see us as an anti-Trump podcast.

[00:10:34] I don't know if, if, if, how you would feel about that, but yeah, I don't see us as an anti-Trump podcast.

[00:10:40] I think we are unapologetically pro-democracy and pro the kind of small D democratic post-war Western order.

[00:10:49] And I see no reason to, to shy from that at all.

[00:10:54] I see no reason to change that at all.

[00:10:57] But yeah, we're not, we're not a pod save America or something.

[00:11:01] And I guess going off of the listener survey and stuff that we did a few months ago, it seems that what you all listening really kind of enjoy is the centristy kind of level headed analysis of world events.

[00:11:18] So I think, you know, we just keep doing that to the best of our ability.

[00:11:22] Yeah.

[00:11:22] I mean, Trump's going to succeed in some places and fail on others.

[00:11:25] Um, I am critical of his sort of make America great again movement because it has links to the far right.

[00:11:33] Um, but certainly, you know, I'm going to do my best to kind of call it how I see it.

[00:11:38] Um, and give Trump some benefit of the doubt.

[00:11:41] But, um, I fear just by going based on what the last four years of his previous term was like, there's going to be a lot of negative, um, with some positive.

[00:11:50] I mean, one positive I'll give him Space Force, you know, um, in fact, I met somebody from Space Force whilst I was in DC.

[00:11:58] Um, and, and it, you know, is a very sort of important agency.

[00:12:03] Um, now some asked whether it was needed because the Air Force was kind of covering a lot of that.

[00:12:08] But certainly, um, space is one of the areas that is very much, um, important to international and national defense.

[00:12:15] So, uh, you know, so I'll give Trump that, um, and we will see in the months and years ahead what comes of his policies.

[00:12:26] Um, that's all we can do.

[00:12:27] You know, one more, one, one more thought on this and I'll stop sort of filibustering.

[00:12:32] But I think, um, when I try to curate my own media diet, you know, what I read, what I listen to and stuff, I, um, I really don't like.

[00:12:45] Getting the sense that I am being told what I want to hear so that it'll make me feel better.

[00:12:54] And then I'll keep coming back for another hit.

[00:12:56] You know, I don't feel that that does, um, any good for me at all.

[00:13:01] Uh, at the same point, I, I really don't like doomerism, you know, like, I don't know what to do with that kind of attitude other than to just like lay down and die.

[00:13:13] And that's not something I can do.

[00:13:15] And I don't think it's healthy for anyone to try to do that.

[00:13:19] Um, and I'm, uh, really loath to do either of those things on this podcast, even accidentally.

[00:13:26] Um, so, you know, uh, I think we try to strike a, a, a middle ground as best we can and just be as realistic.

[00:13:34] You know, we're going to talk more about some of the, um, national security appointments and stuff to come, um, coming up in, in this episode.

[00:13:42] I think some of them are, are really solid picks like Rubio for state.

[00:13:46] Awesome.

[00:13:47] Um, some of them that we'll get into in a bit, uh, not so much.

[00:13:50] Um, and I don't know.

[00:13:53] Yeah.

[00:13:53] How else to, to look at it than to just be very realistic about that.

[00:13:57] Yeah.

[00:13:58] Well, well, let's, um, before we kick off on the stories, there's something else I wanted to add that was from our meeting in DC.

[00:14:05] So I'm over our various of, uh, espresso martinis and pints of Guinness at various spy bars across DC.

[00:14:11] We had a chat about what we wanted to do with the podcast.

[00:14:14] Um, so before I could go into that, I first of all want to say a huge thank you to each and every one of you who is listening out there for your support because of your support.

[00:14:24] This podcast is now in a position of growth and both Matt and I would like to build on that and see where it takes us.

[00:14:32] So what our thoughts are moving forward next year, our plan is to record espresso martinis weekly.

[00:14:38] And we're going to start that in February only because I'm away most of Christmas and early January.

[00:14:43] So we'll start that in February.

[00:14:46] Um, then, uh, we will also continue to have interviews with, uh, authors, experts, former spies, et cetera.

[00:14:53] Um, for, for now they will be every other week in addition to espresso martini and maybe a bit closer to the time.

[00:15:00] We'll see if we can pick a specific day because I know regularity is important.

[00:15:06] Um, so we'll, once we get a bit closer to February, we'll have a better idea of how things are playing out.

[00:15:11] But I think for now we'll stick with espresso martinis coming out at weekends and then maybe the interviews will come out midweek or something.

[00:15:17] But obviously some interviews might come out quicker than others just because of depending on the topic, like, um, with Ukraine war updates, it's always better for us to release that immediately because things change.

[00:15:27] Um, so, uh, we always like to kind of, you know, um, we always bear that in mind, but some interviews are more kind of, um, not necessarily evergreen, but they're kind of more timeless.

[00:15:37] And so those can come out on a particular day whenever.

[00:15:40] In fact, I'm sitting on four timeless interviews I've previously recorded over September and October.

[00:15:45] So I plan to release those over Christmas whilst I'm away.

[00:15:49] Um, now the other, uh, slightly unfortunate news though, um, and I apologize in advance to our patron subscribers.

[00:15:55] Um, we are going to, for now, mothball extra shot for the foreseeable future.

[00:16:01] The reason we're doing that is it will allow us to focus our limited resources on producing espresso martini weekly.

[00:16:08] Now, um, I don't know if everybody knows this, but Secrets and Spies is just run by myself and Matt.

[00:16:13] We do not have any staff.

[00:16:15] Yeah.

[00:16:15] It's a two man band.

[00:16:16] And it was once a one man, but we don't have any staff.

[00:16:19] We don't have any editors.

[00:16:21] It is just us.

[00:16:22] At occasion, we get the odd comments, uh, telling us to tell our, you know, tech team to sort something out.

[00:16:27] And it always makes us chuckle.

[00:16:28] Yeah.

[00:16:28] Like the producers of this show or whatever, like, dude, I would kill for a producer.

[00:16:32] Do you know how happy I would be to have a producer?

[00:16:34] Oh my God.

[00:16:34] Oh man.

[00:16:35] Well, for me, I'd love an editor because my God, um, editing episodes sometimes.

[00:16:42] Yes.

[00:16:42] Does get a bit much, especially, especially when you have quite a few, um, to go.

[00:16:48] So, um, yeah, so we've decided just for our own sort of mental health, et cetera, um, that we are going to mothball, um, extra shot for now.

[00:17:00] Um, and then, um, obviously in time we might bring it back.

[00:17:05] Um, and then we'll bring it back if we, you know, have managed to build up our resources so we can hire an editor.

[00:17:10] Cause it would be nice to be in a position where we just do the shows and then somebody else edits them.

[00:17:15] So that's where we're at with extra shot.

[00:17:18] Um, so what we will be doing for Patreon subscribers is we're going to offer each new episode of the podcast ad free on Patreon.

[00:17:26] And we'll start that in January.

[00:17:29] Um, and then lastly, just so you're aware of our timings and thinkings, we are going to work on an academic calendar next year.

[00:17:38] Um, just to, so we will be taking sort of time off during various half terms, Easter, Christmas, and one month over the summer just to recharge our batteries.

[00:17:47] Um, and we'll still have interviews lined up to fill the gaps.

[00:17:50] So hopefully it will be relatively seamless experience for you, but you'll find obviously for espresso martini, which hopefully you'll enjoy on a weekly basis.

[00:17:59] There will be a period where there won't be an episode for a week or there might not be an episode for a few weeks because of the summer.

[00:18:04] So just wants to let you know, that's kind of what we're working towards.

[00:18:08] So, so that's our plan for 2025.

[00:18:11] Um, we will let you know if things change.

[00:18:13] Obviously there's a lot of, um, external forces that might force our hand on something, but thanks to you, we're now in a position of growth and, um, this show, you know, we want to see where that goes.

[00:18:26] So that's what next year is about.

[00:18:27] So one thing I will ask of everybody who's listening now beyond just listening,

[00:18:32] could you please share the show far and wide?

[00:18:36] We really want to grow this podcast so we can make it sustainable and create more content for you.

[00:18:41] And to do that, we really need your help to sort of double our listenership over the next year.

[00:18:46] And the only way to really do that is to be sharing episodes.

[00:18:50] So we'll do our best to have more shareable assets on our, our social feeds.

[00:18:53] You may have noticed we've shifted like a lot of people to blue sky.

[00:18:57] Um, for me personally, I want to, I've been wanting to do this for ages, but I want to really mothball our Twitter in the new year.

[00:19:05] And we'll put that into the desert boneyard of social media and it may or may not get reactivated down the line if it's needed.

[00:19:12] Just look at the flower secrets.

[00:19:14] Yeah, exactly.

[00:19:16] It will just go into the boneyard and stay there until it may or may not be needed.

[00:19:22] So, uh, so yeah, thank you again, everybody for your support.

[00:19:25] If you could help us with the sharing, that'd be really helpful.

[00:19:27] Obviously feel free to ping us an email.

[00:19:30] If there's anything more we could be doing that makes it easier for you to share things.

[00:19:34] Um, we're always up for tips on that.

[00:19:36] Um, we also have a YouTube channel now, which we're growing kind of in parallel with the audio podcast.

[00:19:42] So you can actually now, you know, see us.

[00:19:45] Hello.

[00:19:46] Um, on, on, uh, YouTube.

[00:19:48] Uh, so you could watch us chatting to each other.

[00:19:50] Um, and, and, uh, yeah.

[00:19:53] So the YouTube side of things are trying to grow as well.

[00:19:56] Um, we've got a studio shoot that I've just done that will be coming out next week.

[00:20:00] Um, there's all sorts of exciting sort of things coming up and I'm hoping over next year as well to maybe do a few specials on location.

[00:20:08] I've got some ideas.

[00:20:09] I'd love to go to like Bletchley Park.

[00:20:11] There's, um, the Royal International Air Tattoo that has a sort of surveillance theme going on.

[00:20:16] So I might be able to get myself down there and film some really cool like spy planes and maybe even chat to some of the ground crew.

[00:20:22] Who knows?

[00:20:23] Um, so there's things, there are things we're trying out with the format over next year, which will hopefully, you know, take it to beyond just being a, you know, a podcast.

[00:20:31] But we want Espresso Martini to kind of be our anchor that you kind of check in with us once a week.

[00:20:38] Um, and we do our best to kind of guide you through the stories that we think are worth listening to.

[00:20:43] So, um, yeah.

[00:20:44] Matt, is there anything else you want to add to all that?

[00:20:46] I think this is, I think this is good.

[00:20:48] This is exciting.

[00:20:48] This is, this is positive.

[00:20:49] I mean, I think, um, you know, the Patreon will still be ad free episodes for now and could grow into more in the future.

[00:20:56] Um, but I, I think doing, uh, Espresso Martini weekly, in addition to the separate interviews that, that you and I do, um, individually and once in a while, uh, together.

[00:21:06] Um, I think it's, it's more content in front of, I hate that word content.

[00:21:11] I don't know what else to use.

[00:21:12] It's, it's more content in front of, um, more ears more frequently.

[00:21:17] And I don't know if folks like saw the, um, shared note that we have, uh, preparing for each, uh, Espresso Martini, like all this stuff that we drop in there to talk about.

[00:21:27] And like you and I each only pick two of them per episode, you know, and there's just so much that we really great stuff that will be great to talk about that.

[00:21:36] Um, you know, we don't, we don't get a chance to, to, to get to by the, I mean, by the time, you know,

[00:21:41] the next episode runs around, there's a whole bunch of new, more pressing stuff that we have to talk about.

[00:21:47] So this will help us probably hopefully, um, you know, cover, cover more of that stuff.

[00:21:52] Yeah.

[00:21:53] Yeah, indeed.

[00:21:53] I think, you know, I don't think there's ever really a shortage of, uh, these kinds of stories.

[00:21:58] So, so especially at the moment.

[00:22:00] Um, so I think, you know, I think there'd be plenty to talk about in the year ahead and beyond.

[00:22:05] So, uh, I'm, you know, I'm very excited to see where this takes us.

[00:22:08] Cause it's, it's, you know, it's amazing to see how the sort of podcast has evolved.

[00:22:12] Cause we're, I've been doing this for nearly eight years now and it's coming into its ninth year.

[00:22:17] Is that right?

[00:22:18] Yeah.

[00:22:18] 2016 is the 10th anniversary.

[00:22:20] So yeah, next year will be the ninth anniversary.

[00:22:22] Um, and, and it's just amazing how, you know, especially with having your board as well, how we've really grown and, um, evolved and, um, it's, you know, still a lot of fun.

[00:22:33] Um, yeah, so it's, it's been great.

[00:22:36] So, uh, you know, I hope everybody's still, you know, enjoying what we do.

[00:22:39] And certainly the survey gave us, um, uh, you know, validation and some food for thought.

[00:22:45] And, uh, I think what we're doing is sort of reflective of, of the majority of what people sort of wanted from the survey.

[00:22:51] So, uh, hope everybody's happy with that.

[00:22:54] So, uh, 25 minutes in first.

[00:22:57] Now we'll talk about what we're actually going to talk about today.

[00:22:59] Um, so today we're going to be looking at, uh, obviously fears about Trump's plans for the intelligence services.

[00:23:06] Then we're going to look at some two scenarios for a Trump administration going forward.

[00:23:10] Um, if we have time, we'll be looking at mystery fires and Western cargo planes linked to Russia, our favorite people at the moment.

[00:23:16] Um, and then we'll wrap up with the onion buying the famous conspiracy website Infowars.

[00:23:22] And then on our penultimate extra shot, we will be looking at the CIA's nonviolent capabilities to stop ships.

[00:23:28] The gray area between informant and agent.

[00:23:31] Details on Israel's secret drone.

[00:23:34] And we will wrap up looking at how X under Musk may have become Russians, Russia's second front in the 2024 elections.

[00:23:43] So Matt, I'm going to start with you.

[00:23:46] There was a article from Shane Harris in the Atlantic titled Trump's deep state revenge.

[00:23:52] So I'll let you kick us off with that.

[00:23:54] Yeah.

[00:23:54] So, uh, good friend of the pond, Shane Harris, um, he, he wrote a good, uh, look at some of the.

[00:24:01] Fretting that, uh, is, is ongoing with inside the intelligence community in the last couple of weeks since the election.

[00:24:07] So he says that, uh, intelligence professionals current and retired are deeply concerned about Trump's plans to purge the federal workforce.

[00:24:14] If you were when he returns to office in January, he's vowed to demolish the deep state and target those he sees as disloyal.

[00:24:21] An agenda that could upend the foundations of the civil service.

[00:24:24] Trump and his allies have compiled lists of officials they claim worked against him, putting these individuals and even their families at risk of harassment.

[00:24:32] If reelected, Trump could use the full power of the federal government to retaliate against them, revoking security clearances or initiating investigations to ruin careers.

[00:24:41] Trump has pledged to reinstate an executive order allowing mass firings of career officials, replacing them with political loyalists.

[00:24:49] Intelligence professionals warned this would gut agencies of experienced personnel and politicize critical national security functions.

[00:24:56] Some officials are contemplating early retirement rather than serving under Trump again, raising the prospect of leadership voids during a chaotic transition.

[00:25:05] This self-imposed brain drain could leave national security agencies dangerously understaffed.

[00:25:09] Career intelligence officers warned that removing seasoned professionals en masse would compromise the ability to monitor foreign threats, counter espionage, and manage crises, leaving the country more vulnerable.

[00:25:21] Trump's turn toward appointing hardline loyalists, some with checkered pasts, signals a willingness to prioritize political allegiance over expertise.

[00:25:30] Combined with plans for Reese's appointments to avoid Senate scrutiny, this raises alarms about the stability and effectiveness of U.S. governance under his leadership.

[00:25:39] Chris, what did you think about this?

[00:25:42] Yeah, very, very good article.

[00:25:43] I was just looking at my notes and realized I've got quite a few notes here.

[00:25:47] I'll do my best to go through them.

[00:25:49] But first of all, without a doubt, Trump's team will have compiled a list of officials within the CIA, FBI, and other agencies who he would view as either disloyal because of a statement they made or an action he didn't agree with.

[00:26:05] Or people he views could be a potential problem for future plans.

[00:26:13] There's talk, and there was talk towards the end of his last administration, of a loyalty oath which would fly in the face of any claims of impartiality between agencies and administrations going forward.

[00:26:26] It's this kind of thing that creates a huge weakness in intelligence, which is supposed to be an object of truth-to-power assessments of information.

[00:26:36] If intelligence agencies start getting nervous about sharing bad news or news that would upset Trump, the U.S. intelligence and security services are going to get into a very dangerous situation.

[00:26:47] And a good example of being surrounded by yes-men and it biting you in the ass is Vladimir Putin and his so-called three-day war with Ukraine that's just passed its 1,000th day.

[00:26:56] Putin was led to believe by his intelligence services that he could topple the Ukrainian government and that his citizens did not have the capability to fight back.

[00:27:05] Luckily for Ukraine, events did not turn out that way and it showed a huge weakness in Russian intelligence assessments and capabilities.

[00:27:13] So the big question is what will Trump do and what can he actually do?

[00:27:18] No doubt he is going to fire a select group of people and appoint replacements.

[00:27:22] Some people like the head of the CIA, William Burns, are going to have to step down when a new administration comes in.

[00:27:27] And Trump will appoint a new CIA director.

[00:27:30] And whoever that will end up being will have the opportunity to change the culture of the CIA.

[00:27:36] And, you know, leaders set the tone and employees generally follow suit or leave.

[00:27:41] And you've already talked about people are taking early retirement, etc.

[00:27:44] Now, as Shane Harris has mentioned in his reporting, there are many people across the services who are considering early retirement because they've either been through this before or they don't like the idea of what might be coming.

[00:27:55] I've also seen former CIA officers and FBI agents express concern for the safety of sources now that Trump is receiving classified information again.

[00:28:04] So one example back on the 10th of March 2017, which feels like a lifetime ago, Trump disclosed classified information to Russian government representatives visiting the White House, which led to the CIA having to extract a high level source out of Russia who they considered was at risk because of this disclosure.

[00:28:22] Back in 2023, in a witness statement given in court by former MI6 officer Christopher Steele, who compiled the infamous Steele dossier, said the publication of his testimony to the Mueller investigation on the matter originally classified secret was an egregious and reckless act and served no purpose other than to expose him and Orbis, which was his company, and their source and methods.

[00:28:46] Those disclosures led to the disappearance of two Russian sources, according to Steele's testimony in court.

[00:28:52] So what he's saying there is Trump, who exposed a lot of the Mueller investigation report by declassifying it, led to an exposure of sources and methods that put people at risk.

[00:29:03] So if I were a CIA officer today trying to recruit someone in Russia or even worse, someone connected to a terrorist organization that may be targeting the U.S., I would be very nervous for the safety of my assets.

[00:29:16] And on the flip side, if someone from the U.S. government would want to recruit someone now, good luck.

[00:29:21] I wouldn't want to deal with any American officer if I were a potential asset, because America seems to be on very shaky political ground.

[00:29:31] And if you're the one who's next on the line, you're the one who could end up being in trouble if there's some sort of accidental disclosure.

[00:29:39] So yeah, Matt, I'll throw it back to you.

[00:29:42] Yeah, I think you said a lot of it really well.

[00:29:48] You know, calling balls and strikes like we, you know, like I said, we would do at the at the top of this episode.

[00:29:54] I think some of his national security picks, Trump's national security picks have been a mixed bag so far.

[00:30:00] Marco Rubio for secretary of state for a Republican, you know, president.

[00:30:04] Solid pick.

[00:30:05] Awesome.

[00:30:06] Eminently qualified.

[00:30:07] A serious person with, you know, real expertise.

[00:30:11] Do I agree with all of his perspectives on every issue, foreign policy, national security issue?

[00:30:17] No, but he's an intelligent person.

[00:30:19] He knows what he's talking about.

[00:30:21] And I think he fundamentally wants what is best for the United States and our and our allies.

[00:30:26] If I was a senator, I would vote to confirm Marco Rubio.

[00:30:31] His national security advisor who he's picked, Congressman Mike Waltz from Florida.

[00:30:38] Big time Iran and China Hawk.

[00:30:42] I don't really fundamentally have any issues with that.

[00:30:45] I think he's, you know, saying, OK, I'll take it.

[00:30:50] Elise Stefanik, congresswoman from New York for U.N. ambassador.

[00:30:55] OK, fine.

[00:30:57] Fine.

[00:30:57] I'm not going to complain about that.

[00:30:59] John Ratcliffe, who he's nominated for director of the CIA.

[00:31:04] He was DNI briefly in the in the first term.

[00:31:08] Kind of pretty, pretty partisan of a character.

[00:31:11] I think.

[00:31:12] But could be could be worse.

[00:31:15] I think he's more geared towards, you know, governing the institution rather than tearing it down.

[00:31:21] You know, so far, some of the truly insane, honestly, I think, and dangerous people in his orbit, such as like Kash Patel or Mike Flynn.

[00:31:30] So far, I, you know, knock on wood there.

[00:31:33] If Mike picks it up, have not been named yet.

[00:31:37] Well, we'll see.

[00:31:38] I mean, for all I know, by the time we get off this recording, I'll get a news alert saying, you know, Kash Patel has been nominated for FBI director or something like that.

[00:31:46] But we'll see.

[00:31:48] Hey, a few of them, however, Pete Hegseth.

[00:31:52] Next weekend, I have an interview with Jacob Ware coming out talking about far right extremism and stuff under Trump's second term.

[00:32:00] We talk about this in a bit more detail.

[00:32:03] A lot of concerns about him.

[00:32:05] Tulsi Gabbard, do I for DNI, how much do I really need to go into that?

[00:32:11] I mean, absolutely not.

[00:32:14] Matt Gaetz for attorney general.

[00:32:16] Honestly, that's like Caligula appointing his horse a senator kind of territory.

[00:32:22] You know, and all three of those last people that I named are facing serious uphill climbs for nominations remains to be seen if they can get confirmed.

[00:32:33] And if not, if Trump will try to muscle them in in some sort of a recess appointment, how that all shakes out, I just I just don't know.

[00:32:42] So as far as the executive order that he tried to implement at the end of his first term that he sort of promised to bring back.

[00:32:50] So that's Schedule F, which would remove the civil service protections that, you know, as we said, he could fire people in mass.

[00:33:01] I think it's one of those things that's probably easier said and threatened than done in practice.

[00:33:06] You know, the lawfare coming up over the next few years is going to be insane and truly epic.

[00:33:15] And the and the legal pushback to that, I think you would see immediately.

[00:33:21] I don't think it's as simple as going into these intelligence agencies and stuff and just firing 75 percent of the workforce.

[00:33:30] And then at the end of the day, like the.

[00:33:34] The threats that we're facing, the adversaries that we have around the world, that doesn't go away.

[00:33:39] You know, this is definitely serious shit.

[00:33:42] And I don't know, you want to gut most of the intelligence community and then there's some big terrorist attack and you're caught holding the bag because you appointed them with a bunch of, you know, goobers from the dregs of Twitter.

[00:33:53] I mean, this is this is real stuff that you're that you're facing if you go down that path.

[00:33:59] So, again, going back to I don't want to tell people what they want to hear, but I also don't want to do the doomerism stuff because I don't think that's productive.

[00:34:06] I think some of this is good and positive and reason to be like, OK, fine.

[00:34:10] Some of it not so good.

[00:34:12] But I also think that it will if they do try this stuff, it will not be as easy as they think it will.

[00:34:19] And also, it's worth bearing in mind.

[00:34:21] They don't have a lot of time on their hands.

[00:34:24] Right.

[00:34:24] He's got one four year term left.

[00:34:28] He's got two years till the midterms where I expect his party to get destroyed.

[00:34:35] Honestly, the backlash it tends to come to the president's party in the midterms.

[00:34:40] The margins right now are already razor thin.

[00:34:44] Like I think it's like three or four in the House, three or four also in the Senate, I believe.

[00:34:49] That really makes it hard to govern and enact really like sea change kind of earth shaking new laws and policies and stuff.

[00:35:01] So it's I think they're going to try.

[00:35:04] I think they're going to touch the stove where they can.

[00:35:06] But it's it's not going to be as easy as they as they would like to present.

[00:35:11] One question on that.

[00:35:13] How much actual power does this new Trump administration have?

[00:35:17] Because they've got a lot of control of the House and Senate, don't they?

[00:35:20] They have a lot of control of the House and Senate, you said?

[00:35:23] Do you?

[00:35:23] Yeah, I believe they do.

[00:35:25] Is that correct or not?

[00:35:27] I mean, they have as much control as as the House and Senate is willing to give them.

[00:35:33] I mean, when when Trump came in after 2016, I think the margins in the House were like the Republicans have like a 40 some odd seat majority.

[00:35:41] Now it's like three, you know, who knows if that even lasts through the through the midterms?

[00:35:48] You know, I mean, members of Congress could get hit by a bus.

[00:35:53] They could resign to go work in the private sector or some other, you know, higher paying job or something.

[00:35:59] There's all kinds of things that can happen.

[00:36:01] And if there's anything, honestly, that has been shown even in the last few years of Biden's term when Republicans were in the majority in the House, they have a very hard time governing when they have very small majorities like that.

[00:36:12] You know, so it's for that reason that I think there is cause to be a bit somewhat, you know, positive and hopeful that it's if you want to radically shake up and change these national security apparatuses, it takes time.

[00:36:30] There's a lot of lawfare involved.

[00:36:31] You're going to need you're going to need Congress to actually, you know, vote to change some of this stuff.

[00:36:38] And again, that takes time and they don't have a lot of time.

[00:36:42] They have, I think, most generously two years before they lose at least the House.

[00:36:47] And this whole thing grinds to a halt.

[00:36:49] And then two years after that, who knows?

[00:36:51] Yeah.

[00:36:52] And with if we go by the past Trump administration, not a lot of people stayed in their post for very long.

[00:37:00] There were a lot of shuffling, which then the infighting and the chaos was insane.

[00:37:05] And I don't see any reason to expect it to be anything different this time.

[00:37:09] Yeah.

[00:37:10] Yeah.

[00:37:10] Well, I think let's take a quick break and then we'll come back to your second story about the two scenarios for the year ahead.

[00:37:17] So we'll be right back.

[00:37:34] Welcome back, everybody.

[00:37:35] So, Matt, you've got a second story.

[00:37:38] It's also Trump related about the sort of two scenarios for the year ahead.

[00:37:42] So I'll let you sort of talk to us about that.

[00:37:45] Yeah, this is another one.

[00:37:46] Garrett Graff published this on his Substack.

[00:37:49] Also really, really great reporter who I admire a lot.

[00:37:52] Yeah, he published this on his Substack.

[00:37:54] Sort of look at two different scenarios potentially for the years ahead for the country.

[00:38:00] And he starts with.

[00:38:03] So a former deputy DNI, Sue Gordon, in 2020 expressed some concerns about, you know, what if coming out of COVID America just doesn't fails to meet the moment.

[00:38:14] And her critique highlighted eroding institutions, systemic dysfunction, threatening the global leadership role.

[00:38:20] Well, the U.S. has held for decades.

[00:38:22] You know, what happens if that just goes away?

[00:38:24] So Garrett looks at two scenarios around here.

[00:38:27] So scenario one is the federal government sort of ceases to function in any way that we would kind of recognize it as it has in the past, you know, 50 years or something.

[00:38:38] So the federal government risks ceasing to function effectively, coupled with systemic brain drain and hostility towards federal workers could dismantle regulatory frameworks, disrupt essential services and create a federal system unable to address 21st century challenges like climate change, economic stability and global competitiveness.

[00:38:58] So that's, you know, the best and brightest don't come here to do these great things that they want to do.

[00:39:06] They go elsewhere to China or to Europe.

[00:39:08] The second scenario he presents is kind of America as a fragmented Europe.

[00:39:15] The U.S. may devolve into a state-first system resembling Europe where rights, economic opportunities and governance vary drastically by state.

[00:39:23] So if you're in California, your experiences as a U.S. citizen could be drastically different as opposed to if you're in, I don't know, say, parts of Texas or Florida.

[00:39:36] This divergence could amplify polarization with blue states advancing progressive agendas and red states doubling down on restrictive policies, creating stark disparities in education, health care and personal freedoms.

[00:39:49] The increasing localization of governance risks reshaping Americans' daily lives.

[00:39:55] Rights, rights, workplace protections and infrastructure and public services may depend heavily on state residents influencing individual decisions on migration, career paths and even basic safety.

[00:40:06] Divergence could deter talent from certain states, impact university research hubs and fragment industries accustomed to national uniformity.

[00:40:14] Companies may rethink investments and individuals could face unprecedented limitations on their mobility and freedoms within the U.S.

[00:40:22] Even in an optimistic outlook, the damage to U.S. institutions from systemic dysfunction could take 10 to 15 years to repair.

[00:40:30] Garrett warns these challenges might define a generational error of instability with recovery far from guaranteed.

[00:40:37] So the reason I picked this, it doesn't quite fit neatly into the box of like, you know, national security, foreign policy, intelligence and stuff that we usually talk about.

[00:40:46] But I wanted to highlight it because I thought it was very.

[00:40:50] The kind of.

[00:40:52] Stability and the and the global kind of power projection that the U.S.

[00:40:58] and and by proxy, also the Western alliance has enjoyed since World War Two, since the end of the Cold War and stuff.

[00:41:05] That's not simply by accident.

[00:41:07] You know, it's all kind of connected.

[00:41:09] And if if.

[00:41:13] Yeah, if if if if the United States becomes a bad place to do business because of X, Y or Z policies, if if the rights and protections afforded to the federal civil service goes away, you're not going to attract good talent to come in here and and to do those jobs.

[00:41:32] Right. To have talented people working in the CIA or the NSA.

[00:41:37] Right. Or in the DOD.

[00:41:38] And all of that kind of filters down to really create a very kind of dangerous, uncertain world.

[00:41:47] It's it's.

[00:41:49] Yeah. The kind of the kind of world that we have built, the world that we want to have.

[00:41:54] There's I don't know, it's a it's like a spider web and yet, you know, touch one part of it and it reverberates across all the rest.

[00:42:04] So if that makes sense, I don't know.

[00:42:06] But yeah. So, Chris, what did you think?

[00:42:09] Yeah, we're just pretty much echoing what you just said there.

[00:42:11] I mean, I've said in the past, I felt that if Trump won the election, we will start to see the end of the post World War Two American led global order.

[00:42:21] And, you know, and I say that because Trump is causing and has caused massive and should we say unnecessary friction and uncertainty with allies.

[00:42:30] And he also has this habit of seeking validation from strongman dictators like Putin, Viktor Orban and Kim Jong Un.

[00:42:39] And some people seem to believe that that strategy guarantees peace, but I don't believe that at all.

[00:42:46] You know, obviously in Europe, there are conversations and have been conversations both during his previous administration and in a build up to this one about how Europe could depend less on America for military support and potentially even trade.

[00:43:02] Which on the one hand does encourage Europe to be more self-reliant, which is a positive thing, I think.

[00:43:07] But on the other hand, you are seeing the erosion of, should we say, American soft power or even American power projection.

[00:43:15] Also, you know, with politicians like Trump and his cohorts, I feel like we're seeing the rise of individuals who don't really understand how government functions.

[00:43:25] They take that American global led order for granted.

[00:43:29] They don't probably even understand the history of it.

[00:43:31] And yet they want to take a wrecking ball to all these established institutions for the sake of change, disruption, or in some cases for personal gain or for gain for big business donors.

[00:43:44] You know, one example of some of these appointments that really stood out to me, not a national security one, but was appointing anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist RFK Jr. as health secretary.

[00:43:58] Personally, I thought that was an absolute joke.

[00:44:00] This man is paranoid and I think he's very ignorant about how the health services and it actually works and how regulation works and what it will likely lead to.

[00:44:13] And I could be wrong here, but I think you're going to see a lot of massive deregulation in the health sector, which will no doubt be exploited by businesses who put profits before safety.

[00:44:24] And that will be bad for the individual.

[00:44:27] Then, going on to other appointments, we've talked about something a bit earlier.

[00:44:31] So you've got the terribly unqualified Pete Hegseth to be defense secretary who wants to clean house at the Pentagon and remove woke generals.

[00:44:41] And woke will be this go-to word now to remove anyone who disagrees with him or Trump moving forward, whether they're woke or not.

[00:44:48] And I don't see that ending well.

[00:44:50] Then you mentioned earlier Tulsi Gabbard, who has never held a position in the intelligence community, has frequently been opposed to US foreign policy and has sided with Bashir al-Assad, the president of Syria, and Russian President Vladimir Putin over their actions and talking points.

[00:45:07] And one such talking point that she loves to bring out is blaming NATO for Russia's war in Ukraine.

[00:45:14] As Tom Nichol points out in a piece he wrote recently about Tulsi Gabbard, someone with her views should not be allowed anywhere near US secrets, let alone preside over them as the director of national intelligence.

[00:45:25] So that appointment alone is very concerning.

[00:45:29] And I do know now that certainly some senators are calling that into question, asking for investigation into her connections with Russia.

[00:45:37] So we'll see where that goes.

[00:45:40] On another level, it is also believed that Trump seeks to inject Christian nationalism into every aspect of government, which does fly into the face of the founding principle of the United States, which is the separation of church and state.

[00:45:55] And that came about because the US founding fathers had fled religious wars in Europe and felt it was necessary to keep religion and politics separate, which is something I personally agree with.

[00:46:05] And that's why I've always been, should we say, we talked about this in DC, what is the term for somebody who admires America?

[00:46:13] Does that make me a Yankophile?

[00:46:14] I don't know.

[00:46:15] But I've always, I don't know what the correct term is.

[00:46:17] You have Anglophiles, you have Francophiles for France, Anglophiles for England.

[00:46:21] I'm not quite sure what the right file is for America, but I've gone with Yankophile for now.

[00:46:25] But please, somebody correct me via email what the correct term is.

[00:46:30] And in my final thought, just a little bit of what you were saying.

[00:46:33] All of this is making established institutions dysfunctional, and it furthers the failures of government that are already pissing people off and erodes people's trust in government.

[00:46:44] And that makes America's institutions weaker.

[00:46:47] And with that in mind, I'm reminded of the goal of Russia and Russian and Chinese influence operations, which is to erode people's trust in their own government.

[00:46:57] So it ceases to function properly.

[00:46:59] And then when the country is too busy fighting itself, it leaves room for Russia and China to fill that void in the international arena.

[00:47:08] And I think this is the big problem.

[00:47:10] With us, should we say, potentially throwing out the American-led global order post-World War II, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea are there waiting in the wings to take over.

[00:47:22] And this is something that should concern everybody.

[00:47:26] And it definitely, I think, is a point of concern in Europe.

[00:47:29] Because if NATO or American protection does come into question, and Putin does feel emboldened by whatever deal he gets over Ukraine,

[00:47:41] does that mean he's going to start invading places like Poland or other former Eastern Bloc countries?

[00:47:47] Are we going to see more war in Europe?

[00:47:49] I mean, who knows?

[00:47:50] So I'll throw it back to you, Matt.

[00:47:52] That's my sort of filibustering.

[00:47:54] Yeah, just sort of one more thought to that point.

[00:47:59] I mean, like we said, some of the more truly odious cabinet appointments,

[00:48:04] where you had Gates, Tulsi Gabbard, or Hegseth face really uphill climbs for Senate confirmation.

[00:48:12] If they can get the votes to be confirmed, it doesn't require, with the margins again, with the margins in the Senate,

[00:48:19] it does not require very many defections at all to sink those nominations.

[00:48:24] And then, you know, can he push them through in some sort of a recess appointment, how that works in practice?

[00:48:31] I can't offer any set answers to that right now.

[00:48:34] It's a big kind of wait and see over the next couple months.

[00:48:37] We will find out.

[00:48:40] The other thing, again, is, you know, when you break these systems, when you break these agencies, you know,

[00:48:47] you can't hide the effects of that from people.

[00:48:50] You know, like I said earlier, if you gut the intelligence community and then there's some big ISIS attack,

[00:48:56] you're going to be left holding the bag for that.

[00:48:58] If you gut public health agencies and, you know, children start dying of easily preventable illnesses and stuff,

[00:49:05] you can't hide that from people.

[00:49:06] If you break the economy over, like, blanket tariffs over every imported good into the country and, you know,

[00:49:13] prices skyrocket for average consumers, you can't hide that from people.

[00:49:17] The issue that put him over the top and put him back in the White House where people's concerns over, like,

[00:49:25] the price of eggs and gas and stuff, that's what they voted for, not four years of utter bullshit and chaos.

[00:49:32] And, again, like, there isn't a lot of time that they have to do this stuff.

[00:49:39] And a topic of debate that has been forefront in my mind, I don't know if I entirely believe this yet,

[00:49:46] but it's like a hot take I'm kicking around, is that it will be much less damaging in the long run

[00:49:54] that Trump will have served two non-consecutive terms that if he had served them consecutively.

[00:50:00] I just think that disruption between the two terms of having Biden in the middle

[00:50:06] and then whatever potentially comes after him remains to be seen makes it very hard to kind of freeze in place

[00:50:13] to enact those reforms that those really damaging, potentially damaging reforms that he wants to do

[00:50:18] to enact them and lock them in place so that it takes much longer to fix them and rebuild.

[00:50:24] I don't know that they have that luxury, thankfully.

[00:50:28] But, again, the theme of next year is going to be finding out.

[00:50:32] Yeah, yeah, indeed.

[00:50:33] I think there's going to be, yeah, a lot of finding out.

[00:50:35] On your point about people who voted for the economy, I mean, through some of the conversations I had with people in the States,

[00:50:42] I mean, I think there's this general sense that because you voted for the economy,

[00:50:45] you somehow be immune from other Trump policies.

[00:50:49] And I just don't think it works that way, folks.

[00:50:51] Only that were the case.

[00:50:51] Yeah, it doesn't work that way.

[00:50:53] It doesn't like Trump's not going to, you know, if you're facing mass deportation because you, I don't know,

[00:51:00] came to America originally illegally, it's not like they're going to look at your records.

[00:51:05] Oh, you voted for the economy.

[00:51:06] Oh, OK.

[00:51:07] Don't worry.

[00:51:07] Don't worry.

[00:51:08] Forget we even knocked on your door.

[00:51:09] It doesn't work that way.

[00:51:10] Or for the Palestinian supporters who voted for Trump thinking that their protest vote would somehow lead to the end of Israel's actions in the Middle East.

[00:51:20] It's not going to work that way, I'm afraid.

[00:51:23] And if anything, especially with the Israeli actions, I think we said this back, God, a year ago,

[00:51:29] that in many ways Trump and Netanyahu are quite close to each other.

[00:51:33] And I think Trump's going to allow Netanyahu to get away with an awful lot of things that he wouldn't have been able to do under Harris.

[00:51:40] So, you know, not great.

[00:51:43] I have a friend, a close friend who I will not name, who, you know, is a very sane, rational, good person who kind of we both fundamentally see the same way on a lot of foreign policy and defense issues and stuff,

[00:51:58] who voted for Trump.

[00:52:00] And shortly after the election, I reached out to him and sort of just, you know, I think I said, like, you're a sane person who lives in reality.

[00:52:08] I think you fundamentally want what is best in this country.

[00:52:11] So, like, what do you see that I don't?

[00:52:14] Because I don't believe that you would have made the decision you did unless you somehow came to the belief that, like, it'll be okay, right?

[00:52:23] And a thought that he had that I'm also been sort of kicking around is that the U.S., relative to other sort of countries, you know, in the world,

[00:52:35] has been traditionally just been so stable in its economy, in its social order, in its foreign policy,

[00:52:45] that people are not able to sort of tolerate any kind of instability in any kind of way.

[00:52:53] In a sense, you saw that reflected by inflation and the kind of economic troubles that we had coming out of COVID, right?

[00:53:02] That we just don't tolerate it, you know, because we're not used to it, right?

[00:53:06] And I really have that in mind going forward that, you know, people didn't vote for radical change and instability.

[00:53:15] They voted for lower grocery prices.

[00:53:18] And if they don't get that and they get instead radical change and chaos and instability and infighting,

[00:53:25] the backlash will be swift and severe, and it will temper the potential worst-case scenarios that could come from this.

[00:53:33] I suppose only if the institutions allow them to do that.

[00:53:37] Yeah.

[00:53:37] And that's one of the big part of the finding out that'll come next to you.

[00:53:41] Indeed, indeed.

[00:53:42] Well, should we move on to some mystery fires?

[00:53:45] Sure.

[00:53:48] So, leaving U.S. politics aside, but maybe not completely leaving the U.S. out of things,

[00:53:54] there have been some mystery fires that have been considered Russian test runs to target U.S. cargo flights.

[00:54:02] So, this is based on reporting from the BBC.

[00:54:06] A series of deliberate fires were set within parcels sent to courier companies in Poland, Germany, and the U.K.

[00:54:13] And these incidents were not accidental, but part of a coordinated attack.

[00:54:17] The primary goal of the attacks was to disrupt air travel to the U.S. and Canada.

[00:54:22] The devices were concealed within packages and were designed to ignite mid-flight, which is incredibly dangerous,

[00:54:29] potentially causing significant damage and endangering lives.

[00:54:33] The devices used in the attacks were filled with a magnesium-based substance,

[00:54:38] and this substance is known for its intense burning properties,

[00:54:41] making fires difficult to extinguish, especially in a confined space of an aircraft,

[00:54:47] and, well, in a cargo hold of an aircraft too.

[00:54:50] Crikey, how do you put a fire out there?

[00:54:52] Western intelligence agencies strongly suspect that Russia's GRU military intelligence was behind these attacks,

[00:54:59] and this is part of a wider pattern of Russian aggression and destabilization efforts in Europe.

[00:55:04] In response to these threats, authorities in Poland, Germany, the U.K., and Lithuania have implemented stricter security measures for cargo shipments,

[00:55:13] and this includes increased screening, inspections, and surveillance.

[00:55:17] So, Matt, what are your thoughts on these fires?

[00:55:21] Yeah, this is truly nuts.

[00:55:23] Like, just straight-up kind of, like, just mask off, like, terrorism against civilians of Western countries,

[00:55:30] kind of, you know, like, not even targeting, like, military-industrial kind of sites that are, you know, pushing weapons and material towards Ukraine.

[00:55:39] It's very reminiscent of, like, the Bojinka bomb plot from before 9-11 that Ramzi Youssef was involved with,

[00:55:46] or the Heathrow liquid bomb plot.

[00:55:50] I mean, it's, to me, just, and I've said on here before, right, like, with the amount of support that we have provided to the Ukrainians

[00:56:01] to kill and maim Russians both in Ukraine and in Russia, that if you are going to throw a punch,

[00:56:08] you need to be prepared to take one back.

[00:56:10] And it is reasonable to expect them to strike back in some regard.

[00:56:15] Of course, then, it is our job, the job of our intelligence agencies and stuff,

[00:56:20] to prevent them from being successful in that, right?

[00:56:24] And based on this reporting, to some regard, at least if we're reading about it, you know, there is some success in that.

[00:56:32] But to me, like, targeting civilians of Western countries is so far beyond a red line, right?

[00:56:41] Like, I know a few years ago there was that, the Ukrainians launched a drone attack on an apartment building in Moscow

[00:56:47] where some intelligence officer, some Russian intelligence officer had lived.

[00:56:52] And it was, like, immediately, like, yeah, don't do that.

[00:56:55] Like, I know there's an intelligence officer in that building that you want to get,

[00:56:58] but you're not going to start bombing apartment buildings in Moscow.

[00:57:01] Like, we're not going after Russian civilians, right?

[00:57:04] And this is, of course, you know, just, yeah, so far beyond a red line.

[00:57:11] Yeah, it's a massive red line.

[00:57:13] I mean, God forbid, like, so obviously, it targeted cargo planes initially.

[00:57:18] If one of those caught fire and, you know, and it fell out of the sky, which is possible.

[00:57:22] Over the Atlantic or something.

[00:57:24] Well, God, what if it did it over a city?

[00:57:27] Yeah.

[00:57:27] What if it did it over a city?

[00:57:33] The Eiffel Tower, you know, God forbid, whatever it could do.

[00:57:38] I mean, this could really heat up very fast, forgive the pun there.

[00:57:45] You know, I'm, this to me is sort of getting into MH17 territory, in my opinion.

[00:57:51] You know, where, yeah, obviously the Russians shot down the airliner.

[00:57:55] We're talking about now taking down the airliner with an explosive device, so to speak,

[00:57:59] or an incendiary device is probably the right term for it.

[00:58:03] But, and it, I don't know, it's starting to feel like international warrants and sanctions

[00:58:08] are not really dissuading Russia from this behavior.

[00:58:12] And it's starting to make me feel a bit hawkish towards Russia.

[00:58:14] I'm not quite sure what the appropriate response is, but I think, you know, some sort of cyber

[00:58:22] or proportional military response should be on the table, should disescalate.

[00:58:26] You know, because I think this is all getting a bit out of hand now.

[00:58:29] But it's a slippery slope when you start going down that way.

[00:58:31] If anything, a silver lining from the election, I don't think it will.

[00:58:37] I think this war, one way or another, good or bad, will wind down sooner rather than later.

[00:58:44] And I don't see that escalatory ladder being climbed much higher.

[00:58:50] So, let's hope not, but we will see.

[00:58:54] Yeah, because I think with, because Biden's obviously just allowed Ukraine to, with still

[00:59:01] some limitations, start using long range weapons into Russia.

[00:59:05] And today the storm shadow was used, which is a British made one.

[00:59:10] And we still don't know yet exactly how Russia will respond to that.

[00:59:14] But yeah, it's difficult times.

[00:59:17] And I really hope that there is some sort of resolution next year about the war in Ukraine.

[00:59:22] It is disappointing, I think, that a resolution could have been found by the Biden administration.

[00:59:28] Why does it take Trump to pull this off?

[00:59:30] I don't know.

[00:59:31] But you never know.

[00:59:33] Something may be positive will come out of this.

[00:59:36] We'll see.

[00:59:37] Yep.

[00:59:37] We will see.

[00:59:38] So, the last story.

[00:59:40] Is it a lighter one?

[00:59:42] I don't know.

[00:59:42] But The Onion, which is the famous satirical website, have purchased Infowars, which was

[00:59:48] founded by Alex Jones.

[00:59:50] And this unexpected acquisition has raised eyebrows and sparked discussions about the

[00:59:56] intersection of satire and reality in today's media landscape.

[00:59:59] The real world events of The Onion buying Infowars blurs the lines between truth and fictions.

[01:00:04] And it echoes this broader societal trend of questioning the authenticity of news and information as the

[01:00:09] digital age has made it increasingly difficult to discern the fact from fiction.

[01:00:13] Now, apparently, The Onion intends to repurpose Infowars as a satirical platform, mocking the conspiracy theories and misinformation previously propagated by Alex Jones.

[01:00:25] And this move is seen as a direct challenge to the spread of disinformation and satirical commentary on the current media climate.

[01:00:33] The acquisition is not solely satirical.

[01:00:36] It is also a response to the significant harm caused by Infowars, particularly to the families of victims of the mass shootings who were targeted by Jones's false claims.

[01:00:47] The Onion aims to use the platform to address the severe consequences of misinformation and promote truth and accountability.

[01:00:55] So, yeah, it definitely was a very expensive chuckle seeing that The Onion had bought Infowars.

[01:01:04] And I'm glad they've done it.

[01:01:05] And I suppose my only thought is, my only hope is that they consult with top experts on misinformation and work with them to build content on Infowars that challenges that existing content that's on there.

[01:01:18] But I'm not sure what level of difference it will really make to those who really believe the conspiracy theories that Infowars have been pumping out for decades now.

[01:01:27] You know, Infowars have been going since, I think, 1998.

[01:01:30] So, it's got a lot of work ahead of it, really.

[01:01:34] So, Matt, any thoughts on that?

[01:01:35] Alex Jones is a truly, entirely revolting and disgusting individual and deserves nothing but pain and suffering for the rest of his existence, if I can be so frank.

[01:01:45] But, and this is an objectively kind of very funny capstone to his legacy, I guess, that Infowars would be bought out under him at auction by, you know, The Onion.

[01:02:01] So, yeah, it's funny.

[01:02:03] I'm cool to see this happen.

[01:02:07] I think I would, as you sort of said, I would hope that more is done with the platform other than just producing kind of silly memes, you know, mocking people who spread disinformation and stuff.

[01:02:22] Yes, mockery and ridicule is a very powerful political tool.

[01:02:25] And I think folks on the center left and in the middle don't use it enough.

[01:02:33] But that said, I think while that's all well and good, I think this is a potential to also do something kind of serious with the platform to push back against misinformation and to use, you know, all the traffic that's coming to that Infowars domain to, in like a de-radicalization kind of way.

[01:02:54] And what that specifically looks like, I'm not sure, but I hope we can kind of balance those two.

[01:02:59] Like, yeah, let's laugh and have our jokes and make fun of them.

[01:03:02] But let's also try to try to use this for a real genuine good.

[01:03:35] Yeah, yeah.

[01:03:36] It was his films Road to Tyranny and Bohemian Grove that I think sort of tipped me over the edge.

[01:03:41] And it was a close friend of mine who introduced me to those films.

[01:03:44] And my friend used to subscribe to Alex Jones's website and paid like 20 pounds a month back in 2003.

[01:03:51] So I don't know what a monthly subscription for those videos cost.

[01:03:54] A lot of money for back then.

[01:03:55] I know, it was.

[01:03:56] And I can only imagine it's probably doubled that or was doubled that.

[01:04:00] And Alex Jones was making millions.

[01:04:03] And I do find him a fascinating figure because I believe he's very much in it for the money.

[01:04:09] But I also think that, you know, I think there's a part of him that I'm not sure if he does believe the nonsense he pumps out.

[01:04:16] But I do believe he is aware of the disruptive effect of what he's pumping out on the population.

[01:04:20] And I think he cynically used his content to push people down a path that has its roots in far right ideology.

[01:04:27] And I do feel, you know, I hate to say it, but I'd said at the top of the show, I'm very critical of the MAGA movement.

[01:04:32] And I think that the MAGA movement is very reflective of kind of Alex Jones thinking.

[01:04:37] And we saw Jones that was very supportive of Trump in the first administration he had and for the January 6th insurrection as well.

[01:04:48] And so, yeah, I just find Alex Jones such a deeply fascinating character.

[01:04:53] It's always that thing.

[01:04:53] How much does he really believe?

[01:04:55] How much does he not?

[01:04:55] But I think he's very aware of the disruption he's causing.

[01:04:59] And I think, you know, he also has this sort of Christian nationalism kind of isolationist ideology that fuels him.

[01:05:07] And he's been behind some of the basiest conspiracy theories.

[01:05:10] One of his earliest ones was about like there was secret UN signs behind at the back of road signs.

[01:05:16] So apparently in secret ink, the UN had written various things on the back of established road signs.

[01:05:22] So then when they invade America and bring in martial law, because with Alex Jones,

[01:05:26] it was constantly they're going to be bringing in martial law any day now.

[01:05:31] And martial law never came for the 20 plus years that he ran Infowars.

[01:05:38] And if that does not tell people something, then God help them.

[01:05:44] Yeah.

[01:05:45] Yeah.

[01:05:45] I mean, it's always just moving the goalposts.

[01:05:47] You know, like the apocalypse always didn't come today, but it's going to come tomorrow.

[01:05:51] Yeah.

[01:05:51] I mean, it's crazy.

[01:05:53] Cult leaders have done stuff like this for, you know, God knows how long.

[01:05:57] Exactly.

[01:05:58] Yeah.

[01:05:58] Exactly.

[01:05:59] So I think, yeah, he's definitely, you know, you talk about doomerism earlier.

[01:06:03] I think he very much traded off doomerism and this sort of idea that, my God, it's all coming to the globalists are coming, blah, blah, blah.

[01:06:10] You know, if you've ever listened to any of his broadcasts, it was very much like that.

[01:06:14] It was sort of like a man panicking.

[01:06:17] Yeah.

[01:06:18] And I think, yeah, a lot of people bought into that.

[01:06:20] And so I'm hoping that The Onion can do something to maybe deconstruct some of that and maybe show us some of the techniques behind it all and expose.

[01:06:28] Yeah.

[01:06:30] Yeah.

[01:06:30] Where he was there.

[01:06:30] Destroyed a lot of lives and brought harm to a lot of people, even and maybe most especially the people who brought into it.

[01:06:38] Who, yeah, who brought into this stuff.

[01:06:41] And, yeah, I'm very happy.

[01:06:45] Again, I'm very happy to see this.

[01:06:46] I think it's very funny that this is how it went down.

[01:06:50] Ridicule and mockery with this is very good.

[01:06:53] But I would also like to see something serious and really good come from this as well.

[01:06:58] Yeah.

[01:06:59] Well, you talk about the lives wrecked.

[01:07:01] I mean, 21 years on from when I was sympathetic to conspiracy theories, one or two of my friends are still very much into it.

[01:07:09] That's 21 years later.

[01:07:12] That's a long time.

[01:07:13] Yeah.

[01:07:14] And it's definitely affected their lives in many ways.

[01:07:17] And it's very sad.

[01:07:19] And then, you know, the families of the victims of Sandy Hook who were harassed.

[01:07:24] I think even one member of the family committed suicide over it all.

[01:07:28] Yeah.

[01:07:29] And, you know, if you believe that Jones has disrupted American life, I think these conspiracy theories have disrupted American life.

[01:07:38] I think it has weakened people's faith in America as a country at the moment.

[01:07:42] Media literacy as well.

[01:07:44] Yeah.

[01:07:44] Yeah.

[01:07:45] Yeah.

[01:07:45] And all that.

[01:07:46] And I think, you know, it's all part of that kind of alt-rights stroke far-right kind of information.

[01:07:52] Far-left too.

[01:07:53] I mean, it's a perfect encapsulation of that horseshoe theory kind of nonsense.

[01:07:57] Massively.

[01:07:58] And there is all kind of mixes together.

[01:08:00] Well, yeah, yeah.

[01:08:00] I think most of the people I knew would have identified as left or far-left.

[01:08:06] Uh-huh.

[01:08:06] And I think when you caught them early on, if you told them about the kind of far-right connection to a lot of these conspiracy theories, I think they would have run a mile.

[01:08:13] Right.

[01:08:14] But because they kind of bought into it and bought into the kind of anti-Americanism of it, anti-globalization of it, anti-capitalism of it, it all kind of fermented.

[01:08:24] And as you're saying, that horseshoe theory proves itself again and again.

[01:08:28] And somebody last year was saying it didn't exist.

[01:08:30] I'm like, really?

[01:08:31] I see it so often now.

[01:08:34] It's crazy.

[01:08:35] But anyway, I think that's best where we end on this episode.

[01:08:39] I think we should move on to extra shots, our penultimate extra shot, which will be looking at the CIA's non-violent capabilities to stop ships, the gray area between informant and agent, details on Israel's secret drone.

[01:08:53] And we'll wrap up looking at how X under Musk may have become Russia's second front in the 2024 elections.

[01:09:00] Now, before we sign off, please don't forget to follow us on social media.

[01:09:03] We're now on Blue Sky.

[01:09:05] So if you go to Blue Sky, it's secretsandspies.bsky.social is where you'll find us.

[01:09:16] And there'll be a link in the show notes.

[01:09:18] We're still on Instagram, which is just secretsandspies.

[01:09:21] We're also on YouTube.

[01:09:23] Our YouTube channel is also just secretsandspies.

[01:09:27] Just getting started with that.

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[01:09:42] So type in secretsandspies podcast and you'll find us on YouTube.

[01:09:46] And that is slowly growing.

[01:09:48] So, you know, so again, just as we say at the top, thank you very much for all your support on this show.

[01:09:55] And sorry, Matt, you were about to say something.

[01:09:56] Yeah, sorry.

[01:09:57] The YouTube thing is kind of a new space for us that we're kind of slowly wading into and building up a bit.

[01:10:03] That's more of a long-term project.

[01:10:04] But yeah.

[01:10:04] Yeah, exactly.

[01:10:06] And hopefully in time we'll be able to play around with the format a little bit.

[01:10:11] Hopefully we'll be able to play around the format a little bit by going on some, you know, well, a bit like what we did in DC.

[01:10:16] But maybe with slightly better production values, you know, be able to go around, film some spy cities, you know, go to some interesting locations.

[01:10:23] You know, there's all sorts of things that we could potentially do.

[01:10:26] The sky is literally the limit.

[01:10:28] How we could probably, I don't know, go into space and hang out with spy satellites.

[01:10:32] Who knows?

[01:10:32] But might need some serious Patreon support for that one.

[01:10:35] But there we go.

[01:10:36] But everybody listening, you know, thank you so much for listening.

[01:10:40] Thank you so much for helping us get to this point where we're in a position of growth and that we can seriously consider, you know, taking this podcast weekly and, you know, taking it into interesting new territory.

[01:10:53] So, you know, thank you.

[01:10:54] Thank you so much.

[01:10:55] One more thing.

[01:10:57] Give us a review too.

[01:10:58] Share the podcast with your friends, with your colleagues, with your co-conspirators, whatever you want to do.

[01:11:04] Give us a review too.

[01:11:05] That really helps.

[01:11:06] I like to hear back from listeners about what we're doing right, we're doing wrong.

[01:11:11] It really, you know, helps the algorithm for people to find us as well.

[01:11:15] If you have really bad things to say about us, just email us instead.

[01:11:20] Yeah, definitely.

[01:11:21] Well, yeah, criticism is a better director at secretsandspiespodcasts at gmail.com because if there is something you take exception to, it's better to know that in an email because we might be able to do something about it.

[01:11:33] Well, something that's honestly really helpful with criticism rather than saying like, you know, this is woke trash.

[01:11:40] I hate this.

[01:11:41] Like tell us specifically what episode and what you heard that you object to.

[01:11:45] Oh, yes, please.

[01:11:47] Because it's a real mystery.

[01:11:48] There's been one or two.

[01:11:49] Well, there's been quite a few one star reviews that accuse us of being, I don't know, woke propaganda, etc.

[01:11:54] Yeah, like no, seriously, like tell us what specifically was said that you find woke and object to.

[01:12:01] I really want to know.

[01:12:03] Yeah, yeah.

[01:12:03] Well, there we go, everybody.

[01:12:05] So if you find woke and objectual today, please let us know.

[01:12:09] But enjoy the rest of your weekend.

[01:12:10] Bye email.

[01:12:11] Yeah.

[01:12:11] And enjoy the rest of your weekend.

[01:12:13] And if you're joining us on Extra Shot, we will catch you on Patreon.

[01:12:18] Take care.

[01:12:18] Bye.

[01:12:19] Bye bye.

[01:12:36] Thanks for listening.

[01:12:37] This is Secrets and Spies.

[01:12:39] Thanks for listening.