Israel has killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IRGC's senior leadership is decimated. The CIA is reportedly arming Kurdish opposition forces along the Iran-Iraq border. Phillip Smyth — one of the foremost experts on Iran's Shia proxy networks — joins Matt to make sense of what comes next: why Khamenei's succession is far more fraught than most analysis acknowledges; why the proliferation of "new" armed groups on the battlefield is largely a disinformation campaign run by established militias; the limits of a Kurdish covert action strategy; why a regime that survives under Khamenei’s son would look essentially identical to the one the Israelis just tried to destroy; and Smyth's warning about the apocalyptic messianic splinter groups that could emerge from the rubble of a collapsing theocracy.
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Follow Phillip on X/Twitter: https://x.com/PhillipSmyth
Connect with Phillip on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/phillipsmyth
Phllip’s work for The Washington Institute: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/phillip-smyth
Phillip’s work for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/authors/phillip-smyth/
Phllip’s work for The Washington Institute: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/phillip-smyth
Phillip’s work for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/authors/phillip-smyth/
“Inside the Operation That Killed Khamenei” by Anat Peled, Milàn Czerny, Dov Lieber & Anika Arora Seth | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/inside-the-operation-that-killed-khamenei-03eebbad
"How the Assault on Iran Unfolded" by David M. Halbfinger and Ronen Bergman | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/world/middleeast/iran-israel-strikes.html
"Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime" by Alexander War & Vera Bergenruen | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-leadership-succession-b5c4118e
"Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion" by Erika Solomon, Julian E. Barnes, Christiaan Triebert, Parin Behrooz & Farnaz Fassihi | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/us/politics/kurds-trump-iran-war.html
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