A Democratic Congress, a Lame-Duck President | Espresso Martini

[00:00:05] Secrets and Spies presents Espresso Martini with Chris Carr and Matt Fulton. Welcome everybody to Espresso Martini. Matt, how are you? I'm good, Chris. How are you? Good. What's new? Yeah, what's new? I mean, not a lot really. No, nothing. You know, nothing to speak of. Same old, you know.

[00:00:34] It's a quiet news week this week. Yeah, scraping the barrel for topics this week for sure. Yeah, we are indeed. Now today you made a special request. You asked if we could actually drink an espresso martini. So you've got one there. I did. I did. I got mine. This is mine. Okay. All right. So you got... I have martini glasses. I just didn't use them. Why weren't you using them? I don't know. This is what I reach for. This isn't my cabinet. It's usually just me. I'm a big Manhattan guy.

[00:01:04] It looks like an alcoholic's glass. Thank you. Thank you. Anytime. I'm sorry. Cheers. Cheers. Anyway, and to anybody listening out there, cheers. Cheers to you too. Cheers. Cheers. Yeah. Also, yeah, if you all want to stop and get a drink of your own to listen to, to have while we're doing this, it might be a good time to do that. But anyway, that's the vibe we're having. I got my NASA shirt on. I got my NASA shirt on, gang, gang. Nice. Not your SpaceX? No. No. I have a Tesla. Mine's on fire.

[00:01:31] I have a Tesla shirt, actually. It's buried in my dresser. I haven't worn it in years. I got it. I got it many, many moons ago when things were different. We were so young. We were so young then. Well, I hope the moths have got to it. Yeah. Maybe I'll put it in Oliver's litter box and let him kind of do his thing with it.

[00:01:53] Well, I have my Vienna Inn shirt. So this connects to when I met with you in the States in 2024 when Trump just got elected and it was a very different vibe back then. That was such an interesting time. It was. We should reflect on that a little bit because you were here. Oh, yeah. You flew in. You came into Baltimore. The day of the results. Right. You were doing stuff with the homicide pod that you do. That's it. Yeah.

[00:02:20] The day the results were still coming in. Yeah. So I was flying in the day of the results and the weather was terrible. I remember in London, I was in a taxi. The weather was horrendous. It looked like the end of the world. The news are saying Trump's back in, which made it feel like the end of the world. And I wasn't sure what I was flying into because obviously there was a lot of fear about political violence and all sorts of stuff. Yeah.

[00:02:43] Yeah. And it was just like, I don't know, I felt a bit on edge. And then I went to Baltimore, which is one of the cities, the highest homicide rates in America. It's declining. It is declining. Yeah. Because I run another podcast about a TV show called Homicide Life on the Street. And that's Homicide Life on the set. I mean, I toured the streets of Baltimore with Susan, who was my co-host on that show. And she'd worked on Homicide. And actually, I had a brilliant trip and it gave me an opportunity to chat to people.

[00:03:13] And I was chatting with lots of strangers in the bar because what's good about Fells Point in Baltimore, we have this wonderful bar called Cooper's Tavern. And, you know, you could just sit at the bar. So I sat at the bar to watch the Baltimore game. I forgot. Is it the Baltimore Ravens? Is that the team for American football? I believe it is. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. So I was watching the Baltimore Ravens game and they won that day. I felt very lucky and privileged to see them winning because apparently they'd been doing quite badly. Uh-huh.

[00:03:41] And ended up sort of chatting to some random people. First of all, the barmaid. And she was Latina. And I asked her a little bit if she didn't mind talking about it, about what her thoughts were. Because being Latina and all that, you know, this potentially could affect her quite seriously. Uh-huh.

[00:03:59] And she was talking a little bit about her father. And her father voted for Trump. She didn't. And the sort of prevailing message I was getting for all the conversations I had, particularly in this one, is that the people were voting for Trump mainly about the economy. And they figured that, well, he wasn't that bad in term one. I survived it, you know, and he might be able to fix the economy. So it's going to give him a go. That's a lot of people's thoughts. And I remember thinking, that's a bad idea. Yeah. But.

[00:04:29] Yeah, it was. Yeah. Yeah, it was. It was. And a lot of those people have now, would now agree with that. Exactly. It's just sad it took this much to get to that point. You got to touch the stove to know it's hot sometimes. Oh, man. But then we met up in D.C., had an amazing time, you know, toured a lot of things. I still got a whole lot of pictures I'm yet to share that I haven't. There's some good pictures. There's some good pictures of me around the reflecting pool in the Capitol and stuff. Some really cool stuff. And we had like the Spy Museum.

[00:04:56] And then I was expressing my love for the kind of beige federal building architecture because I quite like that. So does MAGA. Yeah, it projects strength and masculinity. And yeah, Roman. With these beige buildings. Right. Yeah. There's something very Tom Clancy about them and X-Files because I grew up on like the X-Files and Tom Clancy is something about those federal buildings that just sort of, I don't know, resonate with me on a weird level.

[00:05:24] It's like the intro to House of Cards back on Netflix when I was around. It kind of gives that. That's a very classic D.C., yeah. Yeah. And then seeing the Capitol building, I remember just before we met. So I got up very early and I was walking, was it through the mall? Is that what you'd call it? The mall between? Yeah. So I was walking through there, did the Capitol building. And I remember thinking about January the 6th and just trying to place where everything was. Ended up chatting with a security guard there. Didn't talk politics as a security guard because I was worried about getting shot. But... And puts him in a bad spot, yeah.

[00:05:54] Yeah. It was just interesting seeing it all for real this time. You know, D.C. was just huge. It kind of... It just had this sort of weird Roman Empire vibe. No, I'd never been there before. I've been to New York. I've been to L.A. a lot. Yeah. I've been to Chicago and obviously Baltimore, but not D.C. Yeah. Yeah. And I did the D.C. worker commute from Baltimore to D.C. on the train. And the Mark. Did you take Mark? It was Mark, right? You took, right? It was Mark, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That was cool.

[00:06:22] So, no, it was such a trip. Because despite the political situation, it was an awesome trip. We had fun. Met some amazing people. Had a great time. We met for the first time in person. It was brilliant. We went to the pizza place from Pizzagate. Comet Ping Pong. Yeah. That's it. Comet Ping Pong. That's it. Comet Ping Pong. That was really cool. I saw that. Really cool. Yeah. Yeah. Hung out with Shane. Shane Harris for a bit. Yeah. Yeah, we did. Yeah, we had breakfast with Shane. I mean, that was really cool.

[00:06:48] Saw my live reactions to both Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard. I think the Tulsi Gabbard one was the one that really affected... If I remember correctly. Yeah. You were very... We were in... Were we in... We were in an Uber. We were in Uber in like... Yeah, was it Georgetown or something? We were in like Crystal City. I think we were coming back from Alexandria. That's it. Yeah. And we were in... On our ways to Pentagon, I think. We were coming... We were... Yes. You need to buy luggage. This is a long wind-up intro.

[00:07:18] We're going to get to the stuff people tuned in for, I swear. You needed to buy more... You needed to buy a new thing of luggage. Yeah. Because all the shit you bought over here, you had to bring it back. And you were like, where do we buy luggage? And I'm like, Pentagon City Mall. I don't know. Let's go try that. And I'm like, oh, while we're there, I'll take you up onto the parking garage and you can look across the highway to the Pentagon. You can like see it.

[00:07:41] It was on the way there that Tulsi Gabbard was announced as the DNI nominee. And I nearly had a fucking stroke in the back of the Uber beside you. Yeah. You were not a happy man. And I can understand why. And that didn't end well for her in the end. I was proven right.

[00:08:31] Yeah. And it was at breakfast at the hotel one morning. And we were talking about like, what if I end up on your couch for a little bit, Chris? Like, what are we going to do? So, and, but we had like a discussion of, you know, let's play it by ear. Let's see how it goes. Let's call balls and strikes when, you know, stuff happens that like we're cool with, we'll say it and we'll criticize them when we feel it's warranted. And I think we'd done that. But also there was this sort of posture of like, you know, okay, how's it going to go here?

[00:09:01] Is it really going to be bad? You know, it was sort of like we landed on, I'll know when it, when it, if it, if it, if it's actually bad, like I'll, I'll tell you if I feel like I can't say, yeah, fuck them on the air, you know? And I've never gotten, I've never gotten close to that. Yeah. No, I was generally concerned for your safety. I was thinking, crikey, how does this affect what we do? Because you might be in a situation where you can't talk openly anymore. We've never gotten close to that.

[00:09:27] And I'm very relieved to say that that's never going to happen again after today. Touch wood. Yeah. I just, honestly, it certainly felt like maybe it was being. Maybe we were being a bit dramatic, but it certainly felt like. It's a fear of the unknown. Yeah. They just felt like it was going to get really bad real fast and it was going to get very draconian. And to be fair, it was quite draconian. I mean, the whole stuff with ice, which we've never really talked about on the show. Yeah. And Doge, especially at the beginning there. Yeah. No.

[00:09:56] Well, there was a, there was a very early on, you talked to me about potentially wanting to do an episode on ice. And this was very early in the administration. And I was like, chill a bit with that, you know? Put it on ice. And I don't feel, I don't feel, I'm not, I'm not super proud of that. I don't think it was warranted in hindsight, but there was, we, we weren't sure how this was going to go for a while. Exactly. And the thing with ice is sort of, it was difficult to know whether it really completely fits into the remit of the show.

[00:10:24] I mean, there are some episodes that are borderline, you know, we, we do take some episodes right to the edge of borderline being relevant, but we, I still feel the ones we've done are just

[00:11:02] to fight in that. Largely is where our numbers are coming from. And so for half the audience, our domestic politics has weight on international relations in the South we talk about. So it is warranted. It's, it's, it's, it depends on how we talk about it and how we, you know, calibrate this and everything. But there is, there is merit there, you know? Well, you are superpower. So for now, we get concerned sometimes. We could kill everybody right now if we wanted to.

[00:11:30] So, you know, we should, yeah, kind of manage. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. And some stuff I was reading around all of the things we may end up talking about today. I was just seeing some articles about how Europe should get closer to China and not worry about it. And that's kind of, you know. Fuck that. I know. And, but that's partly because of thanks to Trump, you know. Look at Canada. Yeah, I hate that. Yeah, but yeah. Yeah. And it's, it's like, that's where we are two years later.

[00:11:57] The, you know, the transatlantic alliance is in, it's not over. It's just a bit, is somewhat damaged and. It's, it's damaged and it's, it's, it's going to be different. We're in a much better place. It will survive. I can say that in all sincerity, and we can talk about that more going forward. It will survive. American democracy will survive. I think the Republican party has been finally put in a place where it, it has to, has, have

[00:12:23] a come to Jesus moment to speak the language and, you know, and, and, and introspect a bit. I think that will finally happen, but yeah, we'll get into that. Well, today's episode is a bit looser than our usual ones. So we're really just going to talk a bit about the U.S. side of things and then a bit about the European side of things, the European sort of reaction. So, I mean, Matt, we kind of started to talk about the U.S. side. So you've got some, you've picked some great pieces that kind of cover a lot of things.

[00:12:51] I've got stuff from Just Security, The Atlantic with Ann Applebaum, whose video in that, because she basically, the article's actually a transcript of the video and the video was so spot on. I felt like, I almost felt tempted, is there a way to clip it in and just broadcast it for a few minutes? But I won't. Ask her back on. Yeah, I want to get her back on. I do want to get her back on. So hopefully, hopefully via her team, we can do that. I've always liked Ann Applebaum. That one interview I did where I felt that she was a bit highly, more caffeinated than I

[00:13:21] was at the time. She walks very fast. She's great. She would intimidate me. Yeah, she's an intimidating lady for sure. I'd be like, oh, okay. She is a bit. Yeah, she's hardcore, but she's on the money. So yeah, so feel free to kick off with whatever piece you feel like. Yeah, so let me give sort of an overview of where we are and what we're looking at, and we'll just get into it. So I'll sort of talk about the U.S. side of things, and you'll talk about the European side of things, and we'll let's get at it.

[00:13:49] So yeah, so we're recording this on Thursday after the elections, so just for just your reference. So Tuesday night at 1135 Eastern, CNN projected that Democrats had won the Senate. The House had already been called before 10. And of course, yeah, Chris and I are recording two days after the midterms, and the counting isn't entirely finished just yet. Alaska and Mississippi are still out in the Senate, where Democrats right now hold at least 54 seats.

[00:14:16] They will hold at least 54 seats if Alaska and Mississippi are called for the Democrats, which right now, the way the numbers are trending, it does seem that way, but it's not called yet. They'll have 56. So, and they started at 47, I believe, was where they were, where they are right now. So in the House, the New York Times right now has called 240 for Democrats, with the final

[00:14:44] number likely to land somewhere north of 250, probably close to, the projections say close to like 260, maybe even a little bit over that. We're not sure yet once everything is counted, but far larger than they were expected to get, which was somewhere in like the 230s, where Monday night that would have been seen as like a very good outcome. Now we're looking at close to 260, if not even a little bit over that. And in Texas, perhaps the biggest story of the night, Democrats won the Senate seat for

[00:15:14] the first time since 1988, along with the governorship and every other statewide office and the State House. They flipped the State House, the Texas State House. The Texas State Senate is still in Republican control, but totally unprecedented there. We'll leave the horse race to the people who do it for a living. The question for this show, however, is narrower and I think more interesting. What does a Democratic Congress actually change about American national security and our relations with the rest of the world for their major of Donald Trump's second term?

[00:15:43] In January, Democrats take the gavel on every national security committee on the Hill. That means power over subpoenas, the defense budget, and a Senate that has to confirm any presidential nominees. Congressman Adam Smith, who's expected to take over the House Armed Services Committee, has already told colleagues that oversight of the Pentagon is his first priority. And that's not just limited to the Iran war. That's the boat strikes against suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean and the

[00:16:11] Eastern Pacific, a whole bunch of defense contracts and everything that there's reason to believe are not above board. And it isn't hard to guess where that oversight starts. J.D. Vance put it plainly yesterday on Wednesday. He said, the reason we lost is the war. So the Iran war began in February and Pete Hegseth declared total victory a few weeks in. Nine months on, however, the fighting hasn't stopped and there's no peace deal in sight.

[00:16:37] U.S. Central Command puts the cost at more than $47 billion through mid-October, 30 billion of that in munitions alone. So the question is now who answers for it? CBS reports that the president has been asking advisors whether Hegseth should stay. And one source has floated outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as replacement. We can talk about this, Chris, if you would like. I have some thoughts on that. In public, Trump has said Hegseth is doing a very good job.

[00:17:03] In the Washington Post, citing people close to the administration, reports that the likelier casualties may be the men in uniform, General Dan Cain, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and Admiral Brad Cooper, who has run the war from Central Command in Tampa. Inside the Pentagon, as one person put it to the Post, it's knives out. However, what Democrats don't get is a veto-proof majority or much say over the next two months, while the old Congress is still sitting.

[00:17:31] Even so, Thomas Massey, a Republican, is expected to force an impeachment vote on Hegseth this month. And foreign policy has always been where presidents are least constrained, all the more so for one who will never face voters again. A Congress dominated by the opposition party can slow him down, investigate him, and tighten the purse strings. What it can't do is steer the ship. So, Chris, question for your side of things over there.

[00:17:57] Do Europe's capitals read this as America correcting course, or as proof that American commitment now lasts only as long as the next election? Yeah, the overriding mood has been... I think a lot of people are still concerned that this is more a result of the economy than it is about a damnation of MAGA. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Exactly. No, we shouldn't. We shouldn't. But people do. And this is Europe.

[00:18:28] Europe loves to do that. And we love to sort of talk about other people's problems and not resolve our own. So that's what we specialize at. You said that, not me. Yeah. And also, just a quick disclaimer, I am under the influence of alcohol this evening. So anything I say is not legally binding. No. Our fears are crossed the whole time we're here. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:18:53] So the mood in the UK, at least, a lot of people are very happy it's gone the way it has. Mm-hmm. Prime Minister Andy Burnham actually made a very good point that I think is something that we don't talk about enough in sort of national security circles. So he said that the results basically should lead to a renewed international focus on the cost of living and an end to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

[00:19:20] Now, we talk a lot about Middle East and Ukraine and conflict, but we don't talk enough about the cost of living because if we just roll back to 1930s, look at what happened in Germany, it led to Adolf Hitler. You know, we don't want to end up back there again. We're in a situation, certainly in Europe and Britain, we've got a lot of populist MPs who are on the verge of potentially getting into positions of power. You've got Nigel Farage in the UK who is wavering up and down. He's like, it's like a bad smell that won't go away.

[00:19:49] You know, you've got Marie Le Pen in France, you know, who that's next year. And I know a lot of very sensible French people who want to give her a shot. And I'm like, seriously? Same with AFD in Germany. Real, real shot at that. Yeah. Yeah. And it's like, why are so many people so willing to give these obviously terrible people a shot? And it's partly driven by this situation with the economy.

[00:20:19] I kind of, when I reflect on, so I get my old man stuff out for a moment. So like, you know, reflect on my lifetime at the grand old age of 45. So I've grown up through the 80s, 90s, early 2000s and where we are now. The 90s felt like a period of prosperity. And I noticed at that point, a lot of liberal ideas were very popular and taken seriously. But post 2008, a lot of those ideas are rescinding.

[00:20:47] Obviously, not on the left. There's a lot of, you know, there's been a lot of movement on the left through, you know, woke and things like that and through DEI to make some significant changes to historic injustices. But there's been a very popular counter movement to that. And it just feels like more and more that it's become more acceptable to push kind of liberal ideas out the window. And Trump certainly, I think, kind of kicked that off and popularized it.

[00:21:17] Brexit did that here in the UK. It would I couldn't say for sure exactly who kicked it off where in Europe. But that is definitely, I think, the 2008 financial crisis. Austerity. Yeah, right. Is the roots of where this has come from. Because up until that point, I felt like, well, up until about 9-11, I felt like the world was sort of in an upward swing and things were more positive. And we were hoping the 21st century might be the time for humanity to correct a lot of problems.

[00:21:44] And then 9-11 happened and the 2008 crash happened and so on. So I'm glad that the prime minister did bring that up. And I would like to see more talk about that in national security circles, because it's not just a economic sort of domestic politics issue. It's a huge issue that threatens basically democracy at large in Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand, etc. So that's kind of the reaction.

[00:22:13] So how do you feel about a lot of that reaction? Especially the fact that a lot of people over here still do. I think people in power still think that this is very much reflective of the economic situation and less of a kick in the balls to the MAGA movement. I think it's true that what got us the numbers that we had Tuesday night is because of economics, right?

[00:22:38] I think it's definitely true in Florida where Democrats came up short but still came far closer than expected to winning those governors and Senate races. And we can talk about that in a bit more detail if you want. A very good friend of mine is a major player in South Florida Democratic campaigns. And I talked to him about this a bit and what he thought about that. But yeah, it is true that it's the price of gas that got us the numbers that we did, you know?

[00:23:05] And we can look at that as cheap and superficial and all if we want. But still, a win is a win is a win. You know, power is power, right? But I think to simply write it off as just, oh, you know, gas is a little too expensive so that's why they rejected MAGA for the first time in a decade. In a way that's so obvious and unavoidable.

[00:23:31] You know, 2020, it was a lot closer, right? And we had the whole stolen election that led to January 6th and everything. So people never had to do the introspection and the work to say that you got fucking destroyed, you know? And the country said, we fucking hate you, right? You never had that moment, which I think in a way got us back to where we were in 2024 when you came over with me. Yeah.

[00:23:58] I think it would be limiting to write this off as just a response to gas prices. Yeah, that's part of it. That's not all. That's not all it was. I mean, the numbers that you had in Texas, James Hallerico winning by what? Like, I think it was like seven points or something. I could look it up to get the exact number. I think it was like seven points. Winning the governorship and statewide races across Texas, which has never happened in my lifetime.

[00:24:28] You know, I'll be 37 in a month. Last time Democrats won a Senate seat in Texas. I wasn't even born yet. You know, it's bigger than that. And I do think it's a cultural rejection of that sort of illiberal democracy, that urbanism,

[00:24:55] you know, for lack of a better word, that they tried to do here. And it failed spectacularly. You know, never, never again will the MAGA movement threaten free and fair democratic elections in this country. That will never happen again. I hope you're right. It is impossible. It is impossible. Yeah. Well, the thing, the good thing is, obviously, Trump's brand is now toxic for the Republicans

[00:25:20] and there's going to be, and one would hope that, I mean, not that George Bush Republicans or even Reagan Republicans or even Nixon Republicans were perfect, but they were damn right. Most of them are with us now. But they're damn right better than what we've ended up with. And hopefully in time with a bit of reflection, but I won't hold my breath here, but hope with some reflection that this will lead to a more kind of center right Republicanism than this

[00:25:47] sort of edging into the far right Republicanism by being polite about it. Okay. I think this is probably a good point to take a break. So let's take a break and we'll be back with more.

[00:26:13] If you're enjoying this episode, please consider buying us a coffee at buymeacoffee.com forward slash secrets and spies. Thank you. I think it's important to remember, there was an Economist YouGov poll that came out last month that showed like 60% of Americans supported Ukraine, right? Whereas 3% outright supported Russia. The rest, that gap in between kind of had no opinion, which, yeah, that tracks with Americans. That's how we are.

[00:26:42] You know, a lot of Americans have never had a passport, have no reason to have a passport, and that's us. Well, you guys have shorter holidays as well. This is a funny thing. A lot of people, especially in Europe, a lot of people get a bit snooty about, oh, Americans, they never travel out of their own country. But the thing is, we only have 10 days paid holiday. Yeah. Your whole shutting down for August is such like a- Well, that's a French thing. Yeah. Yeah. I'm like, okay. All right. Britain doesn't ever shut down. Right. Yeah. Except for Christmas and weekends. It's a Protestant guilt kind of. Yeah.

[00:27:12] Anyway. But yeah, no, I always, especially now, you know, I have a lot more family in the States and friends in the States. I'm just like, now I know about the fact that in, you know, under EU, you get 30 days paid holiday for your employer, which is massively different to what you guys get in the States, which is just shocking. It's, you know, it shouldn't be that way. Kind of, you know, my one other reflection about 2024 is I kind of came away feeling like America just at the moment, the way it is, is set up for the convenience of organizations and not the people.

[00:27:42] And that needs to change. I mean, that could be an unfair. It's organized for the benefit of, of wealthy people and has been for a long time. And I think something that, that, that's, that needs to fundamentally change going forward. It's not sustainable. But I, I think about, you know, what we, what we need to do going, going forward. And it's, I don't know, this, this whole, where we've been for a decade, where we have a two party democratic system, right? For better or for worse, we got two parties to work with. Okay.

[00:28:11] That's it. And if one of them is totally out of their fucking mind and in this single-minded insistence upon this one man, right? And, and his own personal glory and, and wealth, right? It is not sustainable to have one of those parties act that way.

[00:28:38] And to have this sort of like, okay, if, if, if Democrats lose an election, is that like the end of democracy in the United States? And so far has it been? No. And I'll say this about, I'll say this about the midterm. There was no, there, all the, all the fear about ICE showing up at the polling places or, you know, some other kind of nefarious plot unfolding or something that never happened. It never happened. Do you think it was unfounded? No, I don't. I don't, I don't, I don't.

[00:29:08] And I think it would be a mistake to write it off that way. I don't think it was unfounded. I think it didn't come to pass because the past few months, it was so clear the way things were going and that the target set that the administration would have had was so wide and so broad that it wasn't even attempt. It wasn't even, it wasn't worth attempting, you know?

[00:29:34] I mean, people, a lot of people texted me, friends of mine texted me on election day, you know, how do you think it's going to go? Whatever. How do you feel about this? How do you feel about our chances even before the election? And I said, I think we have every reason to be very optimistic. You know, how do I think it's going to go as far as, you know, shenanigans and everything? If we woke up in a world where Wednesday morning, the control of the Senate, let's say, was down to, you know, like a single state, right?

[00:30:01] And that single state was down to a single urban county like Detroit or Houston or even just say Alaska with the controversy around the other Dan Sullivan who was on the ticket as a Republican that the Justice Department tried to make an issue out of, right? If we were just down to that, yeah, I think Katie barred the door. You know, we would have had an actual issue and they could have, their orcs, their fel

[00:30:30] beasts, their forces of darkness. You could concentrate that on a single target. But as broad as those wins were, you know, like I don't to this, as far as we're recording, they have not even attempted to say that it's stolen or they're going to challenge their results or anything. I think the victory was so big that it just sucked the fight out of them. Yeah. You know, but the same point, like if you're a, okay, if you're a Justice Department attorney

[00:30:58] or something now, like, do you really want to, if you get orders to challenge this or something, which I don't, I don't think they are. I think it's, I think it's too big. There isn't a single target that they can knock down that would change the outcome of this for them. I don't, I don't think that's going to happen. But okay. Do you want to, for this sinking ship, if you're a Justice Department attorney, do you want to get disbarred? Do you want to be forced to lie in your court filings?

[00:31:26] Do you want to get dragged in by the judge in your case and raked over the coals of the indefensible shit that your superiors have said and, and, and, and put out in the media? No, you don't, you know? And even then, okay, let's say you challenge one state or whatever. Democrats are going to net 56 Senate seats. The hell is that going to do for you? You know? Yeah, there's no political capsule to be gained anymore by supporting Trump. No. Which is brilliant.

[00:31:55] Absolutely brilliant because it's defanged him in many ways. Now, one, one thing is on people's minds, certainly in Europe at the moment is can Trump continue with Iran? Because like prior to the election, there was talk of like using a nuke in Iran. Sean Hannity, Sean Hannity said that on Twitter that he was hearing from folks, you know, we might use a nuke on Pickaxe Mountain. And I think that's... Dying rhetoric. Because also the cutting aid to Israel suddenly came out of nowhere, which just seemed a big deal.

[00:32:25] And was that, again, Trump's hope to win over independence or something? It was just really random. It was, it was, he said it in sort of a throwaway interview with Fox News too, which is also sort of, I mean, it's, we've been in the state for a long time where, you know, grandpa just says things and you sort of go, okay, we're, we're not going to do that or whatever. Or the algae in the pool. Right. Which was his closing, which was his closing, let me, let me, let me take a sip here. Yeah.

[00:32:52] Which was his closing statement. Which was his closing statement of the campaign. It's a shit you not. The reflecting pool. And you're all struggling for gas prices and everything. And okay, but I fixed the reflecting pool and look at my awesome ballroom. Yeah. So, yeah, right. So, so how things are, I think are likely to go with Iran in the, in the near future. I mean, there's been reporting for a while that after the midterms, he's looking to open up hostilities again. Right.

[00:33:22] And the Israelis have been pushing for that for sure. I think what's likely to happen there is probably a performative and largely unhelpful strike on like Pickaxe Mountain, right. An Iranian nuclear site that we haven't struck as far as believed to hold a lot of their enriched uranium struck pile.

[00:33:49] They're talking about dropping a Moab, you know, massive ordnance air. Yeah. The biggest bomb before going nuclear, isn't it? The biggest, right. The, the, the, the biggest conventional weapon in our, in our, in our arsenal. They're talking about using that on Pickaxe Mountain. I think they'll probably do something like that and or strike Karg Island, the Iranians main oil export facility. Beyond that, I don't, I don't know. I mean, I think you get like J.D.

[00:34:18] Vance is already, is already coming out against the administration's policy and saying, yeah, the Iran war was the reason we lost. He's not, he's not wrong in that assessment. I think it's sort of cheap. Well, it caused the economic calamity that's what everybody's living with now. Right, right, right, right, right, right, right. Which is definitely, you know, why they won in places like Kansas and why, why, why Democrats won in places like Kansas and stuff.

[00:34:42] I think it's in a way, it's sort of gross for Vance to reduce the war in Iran in which, you know, dozens of Americans have been killed. Hundreds more have been wounded. You know, thousands of Americans are still in, in harm's way. More will likely still die before this is over. I think it's gross for him to sort of reduce that as sort of like a political horse race kind of a thing. But that's J.D. Vance for you.

[00:35:09] And he's trying to salvage his, his political career and his chances in, in 2028. Yeah. He's reverting back to pre-Trump second term. Yeah. Where he famously called Trump Hitler or something. He called, he called Trump America's Hitler for sure. So he might be seeing more of that soon. Right. I don't, I don't think it's a given at all that he, that he wins the primary, but that's sort of, that's sort of beyond us right now.

[00:35:34] I, I, I think it's likely that he, that he does something with Iran as sort of a big performative like capstone to the war. If that makes sense, you know, to say, ha ha, I've, I've knocked out the nuclear program. The season finale. Right. I've knocked out the nuclear program. That's done now. It wouldn't be the first time he's claimed that and then move on. And then as far as like the Iranians are concerned, I mean, at this point, like, why would you, why would they want to negotiate with us?

[00:36:03] Why would they, A, think any deal that they get with this administration would be, would be honored, you know? And then B, why not just wait it out for the next president? I mean, I said this months ago that I thought, I thought the next president would be, would would be dealing with this, with this, with this war still. And I think that's even more so the case now. Well, the next president is going to have to deal with a lot of stuff actually, but yeah. Yeah. Oh yeah. We're going to need an incredible and in a generational leader to, to follow him.

[00:36:34] I think, you know, you could, you could see the administration then, yeah, for some big sort of performative strike on, on Pickaxe Mountain or, or Carg Island get to a point where they just say, yeah, we're going to keep the blockade, the, the embargo in, in place. And we're going to just slowly bleed out the regime for the next couple of years. And that's sort of essentially where it's left for the next administration.

[00:37:02] As far as Ukraine, the Russian press is not happy in the past few days, which is great news. Well, somebody put it that Putin lost the house and the Senate over the, he did. He did. Well, I want to be, I want to be a bit more charitable to the, to the congressional Republicans. I'll, I'll, I'll allow that. I think, I mean, the hostility and the ugliness toward Ukraine has always come from, has always come from the white house.

[00:37:32] Completely. And there are, are far more, if, you know, if the spell was lifted from them and they were able to speak freely, far more Republicans in the house and the Senate who are vocally on the side of, of, if not, if not vocally would be vocally on the side of Ukraine, then, then the administration has, has been. A lot of MAGA philosophy has its roots in the far right and the far right have completely fallen for Russian propaganda.

[00:38:00] There's so much information about that. Now my interview with Keir Giles talks a bit about that. Previous interviews we've done on this talk a lot about that too. So to me, it was never a great surprise that when Trump came to office that they would in some way be kind of bowing to Putin on, on Ukraine. And I was always shocked when experts would tell us that somehow Trump would be good for Ukraine and he was even better than Biden was. And it's like, really, really? And it's just like, no. And, and it's just gone exactly.

[00:38:30] I mean, if anything, it hasn't gone quite how I thought it was because I honestly thought that Trump would be a lot more obvious in helping Putin, but it's only in the last few weeks, he's really gone all out, you know, with sanction relief and stuff like that. Yeah. Even to that point, you know, intelligence sharing has not been cut off. No. The Starlink. Well, that's a scandal. That's a scandal. And that's something we're going to get to the bottom of a hundred percent.

[00:38:59] Starlink services are back at, you know, full bandwidth. It's not being throttled right now. It does seem like that was Elon. Well, let's go into Elon because nobody wants to talk about Elon. Okay. Yeah. Fuck him. Let's talk about it. Because the thing is like, but this Starlink thing, so Ukraine is officially an ally of America and there you are, you have a private company who are providing this service for the US government where the head of the company has the ability to play around with who can and can't use it.

[00:39:27] And it's absolutely outrageous and it costs lives. And I honestly, if you need a congressional inquiry, it's this topic. And Elon Musk's relationship with the American government in terms of his contracts. I think every single one of Elon Musk's companies that have a contract with the United States right now needs to be reviewed. SpaceX, all that. I don't know how you fix that because there's a lot of capabilities, but they all need to be reviewed. And that man needs to be defanged, if you want to put it that way, because he's got way too

[00:39:57] much power and he needs to be sorted out. I think our, I think Congress should offer Elon Musk two very clear, reasonable terms. And those are fuck and you. As, as I mean the, okay. A good way to think about SpaceX is, you know, if the CEO of Lockheed Martin or, you know, Northrup put a kill switch, right.

[00:40:24] If put a kill switch into F-35s or B2s. And if, if, if the use of those systems did not personally, did not align with the personal politics of the CEO or if Lockheed Martin or Northrup, would that fly? The answer is no, no, no. You know, like who the hell are you to, to just decide on a whim? Oh yeah. No, I'm going to, I'm going to throttle, I'm going to throttle Starlink services.

[00:40:52] And what's worse with this is the damage to America's reputation because you know, kill switch idea you were talking about. So back in early 2025, there were endless articles over here about, are there kill switches in American military weapons? You know, that are being sold. Yeah. And now we had this Starlink business. People are like, well, is there, you know, that's what they're asking now. And this is a, this is a, this is a, a, a, this is a South African neo-Nazi that we're

[00:41:21] talking about running this, a megalomaniac drug addict. Yeah. Okay. Running this company, this critical, this critical U.S. national defense contractor. Why the hell do we allow this? You know, SpaceX is very important. I, I, I think what they do is critical for the whole species, not just the United States.

[00:41:48] That said, Elon Musk does not have to run that company. No. Well, how does one go about moving that capability in-house to NASA, to whatever department it's appropriate for? Because I think having vital systems like this in the hands of contractors is probably a bad idea. Vital systems in the hand of contractors. Yes. But, but in the hand of contractors that are led by people like him. Yeah. You know, should never have been allowed, but. No, I'm at the point.

[00:42:16] I'm at the point where I think, honestly, I think, I think SpaceX should be, should be nationalized if even temporarily to get it out of his control. Well, yeah. How does one go about doing that? Because obviously there's lots of legality issues with nationalizing a private company, but. Oh, you'll have it. You'll have a legal fight over it for sure. Yeah. He'll, he'll a hundred percent challenge it. I mean, Congress can just rake him over the coals, over, over all kinds of, of, of conflict

[00:42:44] of interest and, and, and abuses of power that he's done. I mean, we haven't even gone into like Doge and, and how he just sort of unilaterally fed USAID into a wood chipper and killed scores of people all across the developing world. Destroyed a lot of careers of a lot of federal employees who are probably going to get reemployed very soon. Yeah. And I honestly, he would be my target number one, not, not in a violence way, but in a legality way. I'd be after that man.

[00:43:12] I think everything about Elon Musk should be dealt with. I mean, I think one of, one of probably the greatest Democrats, greatest strategic victory, I think since Obama was elected was capturing the Texas state government, particularly the Texas attorney general's office. I am salivating over that. You know, Elon moved all of his companies to Texas thinking he would have a friendly regulatory business environment there. You know, he could just buy whoever he wanted, do whatever the hell he wanted and no one would

[00:43:42] say boo about it. This is very much not the case anymore. So I think you bend him over a railing with that. Same thing with Congress. Honestly, I think even the next couple of years, yeah, Europe could even start, should even start like banning Starlink services from the other countries. We need to come up with an alternative. Make it so that, right.

[00:44:06] Make it so that Starlink is not viable as a business so long as Elon Musk is in charge of it. And Peter Thiel. We need to get rid of him too because he's of the same cut as Elon Musk. Yeah, and Palantir. He's also a neo-Nazi who believes all sorts of crazy stuff. Check out my two of Gil Duran. You know, a lot of these leading tech people have very dubious beliefs and very problematic beliefs and also have a bit of a soft spot for Vladimir Putin.

[00:44:34] And I find it so offensive that this South African naturalized citizen comes in here, you know, and just thinks he can do whatever the hell he wants. You know, policy should just be whatever he thinks is best for him and his business. You know, there's no race that he can't try to buy. He spent nearly half a billion dollars in the midterms. He doesn't have a fucking thing to show for it.

[00:45:00] But I think as far as that and this South African neo-Nazi that we, I think we have a stranger in our house who forgets himself. Yeah, I agree. And I think as far as him and SpaceX are concerned, even the rest of like the tech bros and everything. Oh, Silicon Valley needs to be reviewed. And I think the only reason why a lot of people getting away with things is this ridiculous AI race that we've got ourselves into in China.

[00:45:26] And it's the only reason why most governments are too afraid to do something about it. And also, I think a lot of politicians are way too behind the curve and technology and just don't understand things. I mean, the fact that in the UK we have a member of who was of the Labour Party who is now like the spokesperson for Palantir is just disgraceful. And the fact that he hasn't bothered to look into what his boss has been saying quite openly

[00:45:53] about his views on the world and humanity and things like that. And then these companies are embedded in all our systems now. And there's a big movement to remove Palantir now from the NHS and things like that, which is a mixed success. But I don't see many mainstream politicians bringing this up. And it's because they're all scared of this stupid arms race with China over AI. And AI needs to be internationally reviewed by everybody because I don't think it's really

[00:46:20] helping anybody right now other than the companies and the people who invest in it. I don't think the AI arms race is stupid. I think it's legitimate and serious and China cannot be allowed to win it. That said, it cannot be done solely for the benefit of corrupt neo-fascist plutocrats in Silicon Valley. Nationalize the effort. Just make the US government run the effort. That's the thing. I mean, the atomic bomb was not developed by private corporations.

[00:46:51] No, just nationalize. Honestly, at the moment, I'm like, I'm fed up of these, of the so-called free market that's supposed to regulate itself that never does. And I think certain critical things do need to be government regulated and the government needs to take responsibility for it. And they're not. And it's just taking us down this road where you've got these terrible AI data centers that are polluting everything. And I just learned just the other day that apparently we should be looking at Switzerland because they're developing AI centers that are sustainable and not destroying environments.

[00:47:21] There might be some lessons to be learned from Switzerland. But it's just, I feel like with everything that's going on and with the increase of global warming, which is another national security issue no one wants to talk about, but I've got an episode coming up about that. You do. And it's like, honestly, the last thing humanity needs right now is data centers that burn up more energy and use up all the water. And yet there we are. And then you have Sam Altman coming out all sorts of nonsense about how water should be

[00:47:47] prioritized for data centers, not humans, how apparently computer RAM's bad and should be given to AI centers, even though he's forgotten that if you don't have RAM on your computer, you can't run AI. These are the morons who are running things. And it's driving me mad, as you can tell. Yeah. Yeah. And two espresso martinis in. Yeah. I mean, I think we have allowed, this is a very loose episode.

[00:48:12] I think we have allowed, yeah, I think we have allowed these tech bros to forget that the feds will always be the biggest, baddest gang in town. That was our mistake allowing that. And I think we should correct that expeditiously. Bring in Elliot Ness. Bless him. Yeah. Even he didn't end well, sadly, but anyway. Yeah. But I enjoyed the untouchables. Yeah.

[00:48:39] I mean, I think that's also another lesson of this election is just that the total repudiation of the Silicon Valley sort of fascist turn that they've taken. And honestly, I think a lot of that, I think a lot of that turn that they took was sort of rooted in this, in this sort of misplaced belief that this would sort of last forever, that this is a new sort of direction of society. Yeah. And this, I mean, Tuesday night completely, completely changed that. Well, they want deregulation. Right. Right.

[00:49:09] Right. I think you're going to see a lot of tech bros going forward and be like, how do you do, fellow Democrats? Yeah. Oh, totally. Totally. They're interested in money and their own power and their own longevity. And I think it's important that we see through that shit and then we crush these people. Well, I think the very minimum, all those companies need regime change. I think every single person who was sat at that table with Donald Trump, if there's a democratic president needs to leave the company. And then you have whole new people running things because clearly the heads of Silicon

[00:49:38] Valley or these big tech companies are not fit for the job that they have. And if they're all caring about deregulation, which is why they sucked up to Trump, which I think most of the time is either that or is their deep held Nazi philosophy that some of them seem to have. All of those people are not fit to run companies. And I think there needs to be, there used to be something back in Britain, at least about people being of certain characters and be able to run a media institution and things like that. What happened to that? You know, where did that go?

[00:50:05] You know, these things were there for very good reason, I guess, during the Cold War. Well, some of these things worked and maybe they need to come back a little bit. But I mean, sadly, the moral of the story seems to be we need a lot more regulations. It's the only tool to stop these people from behaving the way they have. I mean, there's a great rule of thumb as that people have. And I totally agree with this. There's a great rule of thumb that people have put out in terms of, you know, how should

[00:50:30] we how should we look at relations with China, whether it's economic or political or on collaboration on scientific research and everything. And the basic rule is, would you do this with the Soviet Union? If no, you shouldn't do it with Beijing, you know? And I think that's totally something we should get back to. Beijing's power mostly is rooted in trade with the West, you know, cheap goods, etc. And so we are kind of, in a sense, financing our so-called foe. Yeah.

[00:51:00] And I think that we need to reevaluate that. I mean, I'm not like completely anti-China where I think we should stop all trades. I think I would like to think that we could as human beings kind of find common values and move forward. But one can't ignore the regime that runs China at the moment and some of the terrible things it does and the economic espionage and things like that that they're doing. And they're kind of build up to this potential invasion. And what their intentions are. Their intentions are not to our benefit. No, no.

[00:51:28] Their intentions are for us to lose and be sepulchants to them. Yeah. So we shouldn't finance that. So it's like, I mean, I remember when I was a kid, I remember I used to have a toy car that was made in West Germany. But these days, a toy car would be made in China. I used to have toy cars made in Taiwan. You know, nowadays, you bought a toy from anywhere, it'd be made in China. Maybe all that needs to change as well. Maybe we're too used to cheap stuff. I mean, we're in an economic crisis.

[00:51:57] So I can understand why people want to buy what they need to buy cheaply. But we kind of need to reevaluate things a little bit, really. Because we're just sort of, I don't know. And it's the other thing, back to AI for a moment, is it feels like we're on the path to upending our entire capitalist system to the benefit of a very few people. And like, when is capitalism going to step in? Like all these investors, Elon Musk, et cetera, are all happy to take investors' money. And there they are on television saying how money is going to be not needed anymore and stuff like that.

[00:52:27] How do their investors feel about that? How do investors feel about the fact that they're about to upend society in a massive way, massive job losses? We think we have an economic crisis at the moment. If everybody's unemployed, it's going to get even worse. And that's a national security concern that, again, only a few people are talking about or even taking seriously. And some might say, oh, we're doomerous, et cetera. Maybe we are doomerous. But I don't feel quite right yet to be too optimistic about things. I want to be optimistic.

[00:52:57] I love optimism. I mean, Project Hail Mary gave me a lot of joy this year because it's the first time I've experienced optimism for a long time. But, you know. Yeah, right. But I just don't feel there's much evidence to be optimistic right now, sadly. Yeah, I think there is now. There's still a ton of work ahead of us, for sure. And, you know, it's going to be piecemeal for the next few years, but it's going to be different.

[00:53:27] Yeah, indeed. Indeed. For sure. I think it's a really good point to take a break. So let's take a break and we're back with more. If you're enjoying this podcast, please consider becoming a Patreon subscriber. Go to patreon.com forward slash secrets and spies.

[00:53:56] And you'll get access to the ad-free versions of this show. Thank you for your support. So let's have a quick look at Europe a little bit and then see where we're at. So, I mean, there's an interesting piece in ISS Europa, which is sort of connected to think- This was a good piece, I thought. Yeah, I thought so. Because it's all about Europe's three-pronged strategy. So they were basically saying that obviously the midterm elections, we still, even though the Democrats have done very well, Trump is still in office and still in office for another

[00:54:25] two years. And the Democrats' victory will limit his ability to pass domestic legislation, but there is still, you know, the international concern and there's still more unpredictability towards Iran, China, Russia. And again, there are potentially serious consequences for European security and America's support for Ukraine that still need to be addressed. So the piece kind of proposes a three-pronged strategy for Europe. So the first prong is to sort of build relationships in Congress.

[00:54:56] So Europe should work with the newly democratically controlled Congress, as well as with sympathetic Republicans, because they do exist. Many Republicans, as you were saying earlier, who are very much on Ukraine's side, and a lot of them felt very shocked by sort of what's been going on, especially the kind of slow walking aid, et cetera. The second point is to manage the Trump administration. So European governments need to be pragmatic, and they need to also be pragmatic in how they

[00:55:24] resist American pressure when necessary, but also cooperate where interests align. And that might not play so well domestically in Europe, because there's obviously a very vocal anti-Trump, almost anti-American stance in Europe at the moment, particularly driven by Trump. So a lot of voters might want to see their politicians really kind of rake Trump over the coals. But I think sometimes that's not always the best approach.

[00:55:51] And we've seen certainly with like Mark Reuter and even Sir Keir Starmer, when he was prime minister, did a pretty good job of managing Trump. I think Andy Burnham's done the same, I would say. He's done a very good job so far, yeah, with that. Yeah, and he's doing a pretty good job too. So yeah, yeah, because it's sort of finding that, it's finding that fine line. And sadly, things that kind of go on in the world of politics versus what we would like to go on in the world of politics, not always the same thing. And then the third point, and the sort of final point of their three-pronged strategy

[00:56:19] is to prepare for the post-Trump era. So Europe should not assume that the 2028 presidential election will automatically restore the transatlantic relationship. It does need to engage more widely with the American sort of political scene and business communities, whilst also strengthening relationships of other allies like Canada and Japan. So I thought that was a pretty good piece. I mean, what were your thoughts on that? I thought this piece was pretty good.

[00:56:45] I thought it was very realistic and I think puts a good sort of explainer on what isn't possible with the way the U.S. government is going to be configured for the next few years. I mean, I think that's also really important is to just calibrate your expectations. The executive branch is still under the control of Donald Trump, right? The legislative branch will not be. That makes some things possible. That makes other things not possible. As far as tariffs, the Constitution gives Congress the power over tariffs.

[00:57:14] You know, the issue, however, has been for the last two years that Congress has willingly turned itself into a potted plant and said sort of nothing and done nothing. The Speaker of the House's whole sort of reason for existing the last two years has been to hold on to his own jobs. He can continue to do nothing, right? You know, so that'll change to an extent.

[00:57:41] I mean, so the Supreme Court has sort of ruled against Trump on his ability to sort of levy tariffs just unilaterally. However, they've sort of left this carve out what the administration has continued to use over this sort of like claiming sort of like a national security emergency situation where they levy tariffs for like a set period of time, right? And that's what they've how they perpetuated this. Congress could and I think will because it gets to the economic issues that people are feeling that are totally due to tariffs here.

[00:58:10] Pass a law that restricts that, that tends to correct that, how that'll actually go. We'll see. I think you probably have another Supreme Court case in the making there. I would imagine the administration would challenge that if Congress passed legislation blocking their ability to do so. I would say with Europe, calibrate your expectations. You know, does this lift this, you know, magically lift every all the awful stuff over the Trump

[00:58:38] administration, under the Trump administration that they've been dealing with? No, but it mitigates it a lot. And I think the they're going to have a lot of problems on their hands that they have to deal with on their own. You know, I think Pete Hegseth. Chances are Pete Hegseth is going to be impeached and I think there's a good chance it happens before the end of the year. You say nothing of what would happen to him under a democratically controlled Congress.

[00:59:08] He makes the perfect scapegoat for both Trump and for the American political system at large. He does. He does. He does. And of his own making. And I feel no sympathy for him. Yes, just someone who's just manifestly unqualified and unworthy and just disgraceful to the institution and the men and women that he leads. The same thing with everyone around him in his office. You know, I don't think we talk about enough.

[00:59:36] I don't think we talk enough about like the megalomaniacal turn that he seems to have taken in this office, you know, and just sort of like earnest belief that like he can run for president going after this. Just batshit insane delusional delusional. Yeah. And Applebaum in that video we talked about earlier called him a narcissist. You know, he's a TV personality and a narcissist. I mean, he was he was sadly a fellow podcaster, wasn't he?

[01:00:05] Was he a podcaster? I think he was a podcaster. Was he a TV host? He was a TV host. He was a Fox News weekend host. Yeah, not a podcaster. Yeah. Yeah. Still small potatoes. Yeah. Yeah. So we'll see what happens with that. But yeah, I mean, what the only I think the only positive that may have come from the whole Trump era or the recent era is that at least there are discussions and serious

[01:00:31] discussions going on about European defense and us taking it more seriously. Yes. I do worry that that it could in time go to a situation where we where well, basically where Europe might well start trying to avoid buying American systems, especially after the Starlink business, which is more of a problem for you guys and maybe for us. But well, it's it. We'll see where that goes. But it's yeah.

[01:00:58] So it's it's a sort of tricky time really. And I think nobody should take anything for granted. But I think I do think, though, for Europe's sake, we do need to definitely like missile defense is a big topic that's been growing in the last couple of years. And Europe literally has zero. And we've had nothing to give to Ukraine on that front. Everybody's reliant on these patriot systems. And then Trump. Trump did a classic where he said, oh, yeah, yeah, we're going to give Ukraine patriot missiles.

[01:01:25] But then he didn't say, oh, but it's going to take it till 2030 before they get them. You know, I mean, the classic kind of Trump nonsense or this memorandum of understanding and all that. I've I've I've thought that as well in terms of like you see, you know, in some of these pieces from Europe that have come out since the election, you see like, OK, well, like the transatlantic relationship is not going back to the way it was. And that's true. But I think also like what when when those writers and those analysts say that, what does a transatlantic relationship mean when they say that?

[01:01:55] Well, for some on the far left, it just means dreadful capitalism. And so they just take this anti-American stance because America is capitalism. And if we kind of cut off our relation with America, then somehow we'll end up in this sort of non-capitalist utopia. Europe is capitalist as well. So, you know, OK. Yeah. Yeah. No, and it's amazing, actually, with Brexit, you know, how many very far left politicians supported Brexit because they wanted to upend capitalism. So I'm still still waiting for that. Yeah.

[01:02:25] And good luck with that. I mean, AI might actually achieve it. But so Jeremy Corbyn will probably be very pro-AI soon. But yeah. So anyway, sorry. But yeah, yeah. You were about to say something. No, I think, you know, if if the if the transatlantic relationship, I say in quotes, if if getting that back to normal means a sort of pre-Trumpian assumption that the United States will be

[01:02:52] the sole guarantor of European security, you know, something that we've talked about on here plenty that, you know, this this idea that, you know, Europe doesn't need to have a military because the U.S. will just handle it. You know, that's not that's not that's not coming back. You know. So. So if people are expecting that, yeah, that's not that's not changing. You are going to have to take a greater the primary responsibility for your security.

[01:03:18] And again, I say there is no reason why you all should cower in fear of a country with an economy the size of Portugal's. Yeah, indeed. Not not. No. So that's still that's not that's not going to change. But in terms of this. The potential of U.S. leaving NATO or or or totally, you know, cutting some totally sweetheart deal with the Russians over Ukraine or something, that's that's that's gone.

[01:03:48] And I think, again, it comes the larger question of what kind of country will the U.S. be going forward? Not entirely decided yet. The jury's still out on that. But if it's going to be sort of a Trumpist. Illiberal democracy in the vision of urbanism, that's not going to happen that that is that is done. That is over. That ship has sailed. One thing I am worried about.

[01:04:15] Is the the conservative entertainment. Complex, the kind of the move that like. So basically, the whole MAGA movement came about via the Tea Party, social media and Fox News. Those are three things very much led to Trump getting where he was. And the thing is, in in Europe, that also exists as well. And what worries me.

[01:04:44] I remember when Barack Obama was president. That's where Steve Bannon was making a lot of headway with sort of all sorts of ridiculous arguments. And he had like some. He had access to some temple somewhere in Italy or something like that. And it was this weird pseudo Catholic Christian kind of ideology that they were tapping into and this fear mongering and stuff like that. And that still plays in Europe. There's still American money that kind of goes into European right wing and far right parties

[01:05:14] as there is Russian money. And there's even Elon Musk's money as well. And what worries me a little bit is that's not going away. That will still exist. And that will ramp up in the next two years. Because what we're going to have now is MAGA is a dying movement. But it's going to want to, there's an element of MAGA that's going to want to survive somehow. And they're going to use all their kind of hybrid methods, if we put it that way, to try and find a new way to exist.

[01:05:44] And they might try and do that via Europe. Because I still see the far right in Europe is a problem. And I don't see the kind of blue tsunami happening over here that much. I mean, if we're lucky, even if Labour call an election in the next couple of years, we're lucky, Nigel Farage will not win. But things can change in the next couple of years, you know. They can. It's still a very real risk. People like to think at the moment it's not a risk. But I still think it is.

[01:06:13] Marie Le Pen could still win the French presidential elections next year. So there's nothing in Europe to be smug about. But the thing is, I think that kind of conservative entertainment complex, which is a Bob Seska term, is still very much alive and well. Still very much on YouTube. Still very much with Joe Rogan, depending on where the wind's blowing and all that. And with Tucker Carlson, all those people. They're a bit anti-Trump at the moment.

[01:06:41] But believe you and me, they will find a way to push the ideology, but kind of move past Trump and find a new way to push this agenda of theirs. So, you know, we need to come out for that. I would split the American right right now into three camps. Right. I would say there's the MAGA movement, which is just a sort of cult. I'll say this in caps. Cult around Donald Trump and his personal glory and wealth. Yes.

[01:07:08] That is dead as of Tuesday night. It's a zombie as of Tuesday night. You know? A dangerous zombie. Right. That is not going forward. That is gone. It will be gone. Right? There's also the, you could call the America First movement, you know, which is that people like Tucker Carlson and I think what J.D. Vance is going to attempt to seize control of, to salvage his own political career that says, you know, basically, well, true MAGA has never been attempted.

[01:07:37] And that's the reason why it failed, you know? And that sort of this reactionary, isolationist, very much anti-Israel, right? Okay. Inward looking kind of view. Right? That's probably the next thing that's going to be coming down the pike in 2028. How that'll shape out, I don't know. And then there's the, what's left of it, the normie, Reagan, Bush, Romney kind of Republican

[01:08:05] mindset, which is very much still out there and part of the coalition that on Tuesday night rocked MAGA shit from sea to shining sea across all the amber waves of grain and purple mountain majesties, Chris, you know? I, I, I, again, I come back to, I think it's imperative that in a two party democracy, one of them cannot be utterly insane, you know?

[01:08:31] As far as I think in terms of my own sort of identity and beliefs and everything, am I sort of like this conservative Bible something Christian? No, I'm not. Do I care if someone else is? No, I don't. Go to church, live your life how you want to live, vote how you want to vote. That is your, that is your right. And that sort of duality between the two, you know, in, in American political culture, political life, that sort of duality between the two, the constant ebb and flow, that's

[01:09:00] just who we are as part of our national fabric. And if we are going to keep being in a place as we've been in for the past decade, where if one of those parties, one of those parties win, you know, it's sort of up for grabs as to whether or not we're going to continue as a democracy, then we're already not a democracy. Yeah. You know, it is not feasible, nor is it the natural state of things for one party to have to win in perpetuity for American democracy to survive.

[01:09:27] And I think if there's any sort of lesson going forward that I fucking pray is the case, it's that we get away from that, you know, where, yeah, they're going to win some and they're going to, you know, have their policies and everything, but should the general stance of who we are and what we, what we believe in and, and what we stand for in the world remains the same, you know, you have to get back to that. Maybe a very wide question, maybe too wide, but maybe we should limit this to 10 minutes if we do.

[01:09:58] Where do you see the future of the Democrats at the moment? Because obviously you've had the rise of the kind of so-called progressives and moderates that kind of have been in decline for a while. People who, you know, we would traditionally see as more sort of centrist Democrats seem to be a bit on the backward step a little bit. Where are we at with things of the Democrats right now?

[01:10:22] Where do you think the, the, the blue wave's going to take us for the 2028 presidential elections? Not that you'd have to name names, but what, what are you feeling at the moment that might happen? It might be too early to say, but. This, this, this election was seismic for hot millennials. That's what I'll say. America cries out for leadership from the hot millennials among them, which is, which is awesome. No, I, I think it's, there's going to be a real debate about.

[01:10:51] About our relationship with Israel and does that sort of special relationship continue? I think chances are it, it, it, it won't in the way that, in, in, in the way that it has. I mean, Trump may have ended it already. I don't know. Yeah. That's right. I mean, he said, he said on a sort of a throwaway Fox News interview that we're going to end, we're going to end our age. Apparently it was BB's idea. I don't know. I mean, as far as like, he, he says things and who, who knows how that shakes out. I really don't.

[01:11:19] I don't, I don't think we can say just because he said that, that that means it's going to happen. Yeah. He says a lot of things. As far as the Democrats are, I think there's going to be a, a huge fight over just how hard the democratic party goes against holding the administration accountable in the next two years. Right. And then looking beyond that, it, it really depends on who wins the democratic primary. You know, if anything, I think if people are sort of concerned about whether congressional

[01:11:48] Democrats are going to really go there, go for the throat on oversight and accountability and everything. I think it's also worth keeping in mind that the Republican primary, I'm sorry that they will both, but the democratic primary has, has already started. You know, I think the Republican primary started the minute J.D. Vance set out that long tweet saying, yeah, it was the Iran war stupid. That causes the election. You know, if that's the beginning of the, of the Republican primary, the democratic primary has also already started.

[01:12:16] And by the, by early 2027, I think you're going to people, you're going to see people throwing their hat in the race, how that goes. I don't see it being as radical a shift as some people would think, you know, will there

[01:12:38] be changes on, on, on changes that look more populist, you know, changes that are more against this sort of status quo old guard, you know, okay, we can heal the country by doing absolutely nothing. You know, that sort of mindset. I think that's going to change a lot, but I, I think just sort of overall what the democratic

[01:13:06] party looks like after, after this race, it's really going to be up to the, up to the primary and who comes out on top of that. And to that point, I think there's going to be a whole lot of people who throw their hat in the ring there. Well, interesting times ahead. Yeah. Be plenty more to be discussing in the weeks ahead as well. But yeah, overall, I think, you know, this has been a huge positive. It definitely feels like that now there's some, you know, there is a significant pushback

[01:13:35] against Trump and I'm pleased to see that. Yeah. I think as far as, you know, 2028, we will have free and fair elections. There will be no shenanigans there. Democrats control every swing state. Democrats control the majority of governorships across the country, or they will in January. Again, I go back to the fear of if, you know, never again will something like January 6th be credibly attempted.

[01:14:05] You know, I forgot to mention today is Guy Fawkes in the UK. And as I'm speaking, gunpowder being, you know, fireworks going off. And it is, I love, I love, I love bonfire night. Just the whole concept of it. Like it's so like, if there's one thing that like, yeah, that's cool. I wish I could be over there for that. I would like that. The whole idea of it. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I, I, I haven't been to a public fireworks display in a long time. I miss them. I used to love going to them as a kid.

[01:14:33] And it's always, every time I smell somebody frying onions, it takes me back to a fireworks display because all we can smell is sausages and fried onions. Yeah. Really? So you have fried onions with a sausage and like a hot dog or something. And they kind of go together with some ketchup or mustard depending on your sort of source of choice. But yeah, it's very much things. Every time I smell them, I think of fireworks displays. It's quite funny. I could get down with that. I could get down with that. Yeah. Yeah.

[01:15:01] So there's a lot of that going on, but yeah, it's a lot of banging going on. My, my, uh, noise cancellation is probably cutting all the banging out, but it's quite a lot of it going on. I haven't heard any. So yeah, it's our, our equivalent ish of 4th of July, I suppose. It's the closest we get to it. Cool. There we go. Was there anything else you'd like to add? I think we've kind of reached a good point there. I think we've kind of put the world to rights just about, you know? I hope it comes together well. I hope it made sense. I hope we covered everything that people would want us to cover.

[01:15:29] If not, let us know and we could talk about it the next time. Well, yeah. Yeah. We serve all over the place. Yeah. Very, very loose episode today. So apologies for people who prefer us to be less loose. Sorry. It just, I don't know this topic, it felt like we need to let off some steam a little bit because it's been a thing that's, we, I don't know, it's just been a tension for a good couple of years, probably since when we met up in New York, sorry, not in New York, sorry, since we met up in DC, I feel like we've been holding this sort of tension.

[01:15:55] I would put two, I would put that, our meeting in DC right after the election as sort of part of this whole episode. And also the episode we did a year and a half ago now, right after the Oval Office Zelensky meeting where like, we really had a whole like come to Jesus moment about the transatlantic relationship. And I talked about, you know, my thoughts on like World War II and everything with my grandfather's experience and all, I really see this being a part of that.

[01:16:23] And it is just kind of a, it's been a journey. Our very own trilogy. It's been a journey. Our very own trilogy. Yeah. I don't, I often, it's not my favorite thing in the world to get on this mic sometimes and try to answer for some of this stupid, incredibly awful shit that we've done over the past couple years. But I try. I think for me, the most challenging part was earlier this year with Venezuela and then

[01:16:52] Greenland. Those two moments just were like, I just, I just thought those two very things were like, and then obviously Iran as well. But I just, there was something about all that felt very much, oh, this is the direction we're heading in. Like it felt like year one was the buildup. Year two was Trump cashing in on stuff and there, you know, a lot of lives have been lost on this. It's not even a joking matter, but it's just horrendous, horrendous.

[01:17:23] You don't have to worry about that anymore. The Greenland shit that I can say personally turned Republicans against him. That's, that's, that's done. That's done. Leaving NATO. That's done. I keep saying this, but what did it even lead to? It just led to a renegotiation of a document he never read and they just put a new date on it. A renegotiation of a document he never, that he never read. And you know, yeah. Okay.

[01:17:51] Do we, is there, is there legitimate merit in, in building more bases in Greenland for, you know, space defense and everything and sort of, Hey, I don't think it was ever a real threat that China and Russia were going to start drilling all kinds of rare earths and everything out of Greenland anyway. But is there a real, we've talked about this a million times. Is there real security concerns about Greenland? Yes. Is there, is there a merit in sort of increasing our, our basing posture in Greenland? Yes.

[01:18:17] Do you need to throw yourself down in the fucking checkout aisle at Walmart and start kicking and screaming and throwing a hissy fit? No, give me Greenland. Give me Greenland. Give me Greenland. It has to be mine, mine, mine, mine, mine, mine, mine. No, fuck you. No, fuck. God damn. What the fuck is wrong with you, dude? No, just fucking ask. Here we go. There's a, there's a, there's those two martinis coming too. No, just fucking ask and say, yeah, let's, you know what? Okay. We're going to, we're going to close out on this.

[01:18:47] As far as like allies, American allies that fuck us over and don't respect us and take advantage of us. Fuck them. It's not, it's not Denmark and Canada that are the big offenses to Pax Americana. No, it's those countries and their greatest whores in the United States are people like Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner, who I want bent over the fucking railing for the next two years.

[01:19:15] Every step they take, I want them to waddle. I want them to wince every time they sit down for the rest of their lives. I think we've got an episode coming up about this, haven't we? We do. I got Matthew Cole coming on. I'm talking to him on Monday about his book on Jared Kushner and the Emiratis. So, you know, very interesting November and December probably because we've got so many interviews now stacking up right now, like planes waiting to land. Paste them out. Yeah. I am. I got, I got anxiety. I'm stressed out.

[01:19:44] I'm like, oh my God, I got to do this interview on Monday. I got to talk to Matthew Cole and there's other stuff coming too. It's a, yeah, it's a thing, but that's why we're here. Yeah, exactly. And I love doing what we do. It is stressful sometimes, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not as stressful. We could be in Ukraine or something right now, but. Yeah. Yeah. It's just keeping on top of it all. But yeah. So if anybody is still listening, you know, thank you for staying with us. I so, I so, I so want to hear how this episode comes together and what folks reactions are to it.

[01:20:13] Please let us know if you thought we totally missed a mark here and we're sure all over the place. Let us know. I want to hear about it or not. You know, please tell us. Yeah. Apologies if we have offended anybody today, unless you're, you know, Donald Trump. I have no apologies. Yeah. It depends on what you're offended about. But yeah. Yeah. But, but there we go. Well, thank you everybody for watching and listening and we will be back. Uh, well, espresso martini be back in a few weeks because we now have a lot of things going on that get in the way.

[01:20:42] So we might end up coming back with espresso martini at the end of November, but we've got some interviews coming up. I got, I got, I got a, I got a chat with Shane Harris, John Ratcliffe. Yeah. This guy, a director coming up. Yeah. There's a Matthew Cole interview coming up that hasn't been recorded yet, but I'll talk about it anyway. And you got, you got a few in the can as well. I have. Yeah. And in fact, there's a really good one about August Hanning that I need to squeeze out somewhere in the next few weeks with Florian in Florida. I just recorded it yesterday.

[01:21:08] And Arthur Snell, we talked about global warming or climate change and national security had a really great discussion about that. So pacing all these things out, I think actually probably got enough content to get us through December now as well, almost. So, uh, maybe one interview shy of that goal. Yeah, we'll do some, we'll do some, we'll do some Wednesday episodes too. I'm sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see how we get on, but, uh, next couple of weeks will be, yeah, will be a bit challenging for me just because I've got some filming coming on.

[01:21:37] But, uh, after that, once about past that period, be kind of getting back to the service as normal. So there we go. So thank you everybody. Have a wonderful weekend. I hope you've been drinking along with us and apologies if you haven't. And this has turned into a, maybe a bar room sorting out the world. I don't know, but it was very therapeutic for us. We fixed all the world's issues in this hour and a half. Exactly. Anyway, peace out. Take care, buddy. Bye guys. See ya.

[01:22:22] Thanks for listening. This is Secrets and Spies.