S8 Ep46: Espresso Martini: Iran’s President is killed, Israel & Iranian espionage comparisons and secret Hamas surveillance files.

[00:00:04] Secrets and Spies presents Espresso Martini with Chris Carr and Matt Fulton

[00:00:27] Welcome to Espresso Martini. Matt, how are you? I'm doing good, Chris. Still a little tired this morning or in at least

[00:00:35] 30 minutes of morning I have left, but you know, we're good. We're good. Well, gosh, yeah nearly

[00:00:41] I mean late afternoon early evening and I'm a bit knackered today. I think it's the

[00:00:46] The weather or something I feel a bit a bit heady and bit repressed for some reason. Yeah pressure or something

[00:00:52] Yeah, so yeah

[00:00:54] Yeah

[00:00:54] I've had some funny old weather in the UK as some may have witnessed on the news with the

[00:01:00] announcement of a general election coming up in the UK on American Independence Day of all days, so

[00:01:05] with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak covered in rainwater and

[00:01:11] I have a horrible feeling for him at least that image will come back to haunt him and may become a metaphor for this election

[00:01:17] Yeah, we will see. Well that didn't um

[00:01:20] We didn't we didn't have this plan to to discuss today, but I'm just like

[00:01:25] it seems like there's like

[00:01:28] Conflicting past statements of his that I've seen, you know, I haven't I haven't seen much of that coverage yesterday

[00:01:33] I was busy with other stuff. But um, it seems like there's there's recent statements of his like

[00:01:39] Even arguably as of like the day before yesterday or like yesterday morning

[00:01:43] Indicating that he did not intend to have a general election

[00:01:47] this summer

[00:01:48] Like so what what like speculate with me here? What changed I?

[00:01:55] Don't know because I've been listening to a few things when I understand it myself because apparently quite a few senior conservatives were just as

[00:02:01] Kind of surprised as you and I are at the moment

[00:02:05] My only suspicion could be was twofold I think about this this morning on my walk so it could be he's got some juicy

[00:02:12] Alternative job offer that's happening some point later this year and he had to make a decision. No, that would be believe

[00:02:19] Yeah, that could be it. So it could be like well, mr

[00:02:23] Soon, I'm gonna join this that or the other will need you by September September or something

[00:02:28] yeah, that could be it that could be it or

[00:02:31] It could be there was a threat of further

[00:02:35] Tory rebellion

[00:02:37] Within the party and another leadership contest potentially because they've been quite a few of those

[00:02:43] So yeah, it's an interesting one because obviously the conservatives just had a terrible defeat in local elections in the UK

[00:02:50] They've had a number of them over the last year like like one after the other right? Yeah

[00:02:56] yeah, indeed and so is looking very bleak for the Conservative Party at the moment and

[00:03:03] You know and don't mistake my should say something. It's not like a bit somber about it serious

[00:03:09] I'm trying to be impartial because I'm not a fan of the current conservative government

[00:03:13] I haven't been a fan of conservative government at all. I put a lengthy list yesterday

[00:03:17] I felt triggered actually when I heard the election

[00:03:19] I had a bit of a rant on Twitter yesterday

[00:03:21] Just because there's so many things that have not been fantastic that just feel a lot worse than we were

[00:03:26] 10 no, what was it?

[00:03:28] 2010 was when David Cameron came in and he came in of a mandate to fix broken Britain

[00:03:34] And I don't know what's beyond broken but Britain feels beyond broken currently

[00:03:40] So whatever's beyond broken, please tell me knackered. I don't know that might be a bit much but you know

[00:03:46] It's certainly Britain doesn't feel in the greatest of places right now

[00:03:51] And I think brexit kovat and obviously the war in Ukraine

[00:03:55] Are key contributors to that feeling so we will see what will happen. I

[00:04:01] Feel optimistic there probably will be some sort of change of government. It seems that way from all indications

[00:04:07] It is all the kind of right ingredients that seem to be in the right place

[00:04:10] I think I've been saying this before about I think labor very much needs Scotland and Scotland at the moment seems to be going through

[00:04:16] some sort of political turmoil of its own

[00:04:18] With leadership changes at the SMP obviously the local elections. We just talked about

[00:04:24] So unless so the thing is with elections, you know things can change we had this with Ed Miliband in

[00:04:31] 2015 there was a feeling of the Ed Miliband was inevitably going to take over as Prime Minister and he didn't and in fact

[00:04:39] The Conservatives did very well

[00:04:41] and I think part of that was driven by

[00:04:44] The David Cameron's commitment to referendum on leaving the EU. So we'll see what happens because also the other scary thing is

[00:04:53] with elections usually it means the terrorism threat increases because extremists on

[00:04:59] tend to want to influence things so in

[00:05:02] 2017 I remember that year when it was Theresa May was up for election. We had

[00:05:07] the

[00:05:08] London Bridge

[00:05:10] Attacks which were around Borough Market

[00:05:12] We had the Westminster Bridge attack and we had the Manchester Arena bombing as well

[00:05:16] I hope to God that we don't have anything equivalent of that during our election cycle here certainly

[00:05:22] 2019 last election cycle. I think we don't remember I could be wrong here

[00:05:26] I don't recall anything as significant as that happening over that period

[00:05:30] so we will see we will see what happens with all of that, but

[00:05:34] yeah, so that's that's the

[00:05:37] The skinny on the UK election at the moment. Yeah. Yeah. When is the date again?

[00:05:41] I think it's and it's sooner than like pretty much everyone expected it to be a lot

[00:05:45] So 4th of July American Independence Day. Oh, yeah, that's right. You said that at the beginning our hotdogs. Yeah

[00:05:50] yeah, yeah getting my hotdog out and

[00:05:54] Whatever American eyes was gonna take the election with me. I'll go and dress this. Yeah, uncle Sam. Yeah. Yeah

[00:06:00] Yeah, so yeah. Yes. That's how I'm celebrating American Independence this year

[00:06:08] We'll get an answer to that question soon

[00:06:10] I know it's been hanging over a lot of people said for a while like yeah

[00:06:13] It's been a big mystery in the UK

[00:06:15] When's the next election because in theory they could have strung it out to January of next year

[00:06:20] I think like when I spoke with Edward Lucas earlier this year

[00:06:23] He felt it would be January next year. And I think most conservatives were hoping it'd be the autumn

[00:06:29] and

[00:06:30] I think

[00:06:31] The school of thought was the longer they leave it the better it might be for them because this year has not been a good

[00:06:36] Year for the conservatives in the polls. So and obviously not in the voting booth right now, so

[00:06:41] We will see now if this gamble of Rishi soon X will pay off. Yeah

[00:06:46] But yeah, other than that I have no idea why he decided to call it

[00:06:51] It's as much a surprise to you me and many members of the conservative

[00:06:55] Party at the moment and I think many members of labor too if there is some sort of

[00:07:02] Intriguing reason as to why behind I'm sure it'll come out

[00:07:06] Yeah, like you can't you know

[00:07:08] Some journalists will find out and report it. Mmm eventually. Yeah. Yeah could be anything

[00:07:14] I mean, yeah, who knows it might be something really catastrophic. It might not be maybe they just

[00:07:20] I don't know. Yeah, I can't think of what else it could be other than the sort of two reasons

[00:07:25] I stated unless somebody internally just thought boldly that there's some weird ray of hope that we haven't seen

[00:07:31] It could be I don't know. Maybe they've got some very deep dark secret. They've discovered about the Kirstein

[00:07:37] But they might have I don't know. I can't think of what it could be

[00:07:40] Who knows who knows there must I can't but I can't believe

[00:07:45] Somebody like Rishi Sinek or the party or his advisors would do it sort of on a whim

[00:07:51] But you never know they couldn't even plan for the weather

[00:07:54] Which was the thing that made me chuckle a little bit because watching him soaked with rain

[00:08:00] You would have thought somebody somewhere would have either thought okay. Well send mr

[00:08:05] Prime minister soon account with somebody of an umbrella to stand next to him or they could have erected a gazebo or something

[00:08:11] there are many things you can do to stop yourself from getting soaked in the rain and the fact that they couldn't even

[00:08:17] Organize that and left the front pages this morning of a picture of the prime minister

[00:08:22] soaked

[00:08:23] Just strikes me as very poor planning. Yeah part. So yeah, we will see

[00:08:30] Maybe there is no grand plan. Maybe it is all just maybe he rolled a dice that morning

[00:08:36] Or I don't know read his horoscope or shook the what's that ball with the number eight that tells you?

[00:08:44] Like the magic 8-ball that you shake it and it says like reply hazy or whatever

[00:08:49] Yeah, yeah, so maybe he shook that and it said call the election now. Yeah

[00:08:55] Maybe like they like maybe they're down under number 10 somewhere

[00:08:59] They just like chop off a chicken's head and then it runs around for a bit and then if it falls on

[00:09:04] Like a date, you know, that's when they decide when the election is. Yeah. Yeah

[00:09:08] Well, the only the only I think hole in that theory is they've got Larry the cat haven't they would probably intervene with a headless chicken

[00:09:14] That's true

[00:09:15] That's true. Yeah

[00:09:18] His Twitter feed he stayed in yesterday. Nice. Nice. Nice. Yeah, Larry the cat is my eternal Prime Minister. He'll always be yeah

[00:09:25] Yeah, I think he's the longest serving member

[00:09:28] Number 10

[00:09:33] So, yeah, so I'm moving away from British politics today

[00:09:37] We are gonna be looking at the death of the Iranian president

[00:09:41] Then we're gonna be looking at Israel and Iran espionage comparisons

[00:09:45] And then we'll finish up with secret Hamas files that expose a mass surveillance campaign in Gaza

[00:09:51] Then on extra shot weight, which is our patreon only show

[00:09:54] We're gonna be looking at reports of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau not taking the work of Canada's intelligence services seriously

[00:10:02] Then we're gonna be looking at Chinese research into brain computer interfaces, which is getting into a very creepy territory

[00:10:09] Then we're gonna be looking at the FBI cutting ties with Russian informants

[00:10:13] And if that's not enough we'll be wrapping up looking at CIA funding of artworks during the Cold War

[00:10:19] So to get access to extra shot oil need to do is click on the link in the show notes it will be available

[00:10:25] Immediately when you click on that link or you could directly go to patreon.com forward slash secrets and spies

[00:10:32] So Matt, I think this this is the best topic for you because you are kind of our in-house sort of Iran

[00:10:38] Expert and so I'd like to chat with you a bit about the Iranian president get your thoughts

[00:10:42] So you picked out a piece that kind of summarizes what happened over was it last Sunday?

[00:10:49] Yeah, yeah last last Sunday, yeah, yeah the dramatic events of last weekend. So yeah, I'll let you kick off

[00:10:54] Yeah, I don't know. I want to preface this our discussion with here

[00:10:58] So I have recorded another interview with our good friend of the pod best friend of the pod Philip Smythe

[00:11:06] By the time this is out

[00:11:09] This episode is out

[00:11:11] That episode should be out as well

[00:11:14] So if you're listening and haven't heard that yet, it should be the one in your feet right below this one

[00:11:20] And if you haven't listened the question is a why not and be there'll be questions at the end of this episode

[00:11:26] Yes. Yeah, but yeah, so

[00:11:28] over an hour really great analysis talk about the

[00:11:32] leadership dynamics in Iran right now and and

[00:11:36] What it means for the succession planning for the supreme leader Ali Haman IE really good stuff there

[00:11:42] So there's there's gonna be way more about this specific topic in that episode. So definitely go check that out, too

[00:11:49] however

[00:11:50] We have here an op-ed in The Washington Post from Jason Rezaian who's a dual citizen dual us Iranian citizen who was?

[00:11:58] Held prison in Iran for a number of years. He was he was after he was on a show of Anthony Bourdain

[00:12:04] Parts on yeah, and then I think almost immediately after that aired he was arrested with his wife

[00:12:10] I believe and then he his wife was released earlier and he was held for a good few years

[00:12:16] And there was a lot of campaigning to get him out of Iran and eventually he was lucky enough to be released

[00:12:22] Yeah, so here's a couple points from his op-ed

[00:12:26] So the lack of immediate information about Iranian president Ibrahim Raisi's death and helicopter crash last Sunday has fueled wide

[00:12:33] speculation and conspiracy theories within the country each reflecting poorly on the regime

[00:12:39] Iranian state TV initially reported a quote hard landing before confirming Raisi and other officials deaths

[00:12:46] The delay in details led to various theories undermining the regime's credibility some speculated Israel's involvement despite denials

[00:12:52] reflecting fears of Israel's influence within Iran

[00:12:56] Another theory suggested internal political rivalry with suspicions falling on Haman IE's son

[00:13:01] Mostaba now considered a likely candidate to succeed his father as supreme leader after Raisi's death

[00:13:08] highlighting the regime's history of internal violence and competition

[00:13:12] However, the most likely cause is the regime's infrastructural decay

[00:13:16] Resulting in dangerous travel conditions due to poor maintenance exacerbated by economic sanctions. I just want to make that point really clear here

[00:13:24] resigned in this op-ed he brings up a number of the

[00:13:28] Conspiracy theories around Raisi's death that are floating around the country not to suggest that any of them are true

[00:13:35] But to say that like this is what Iranians are saying about it

[00:13:38] Which is honestly like we'd be doing the exact same thing here in this country right now, honestly, and it would drive me nuts

[00:13:43] however

[00:13:44] I am firmly on team fog here like Occam's razor

[00:13:49] Helicopter was up where it shouldn't have been it crashed stranger things have happened. Yeah, just Iran's president happen to be on it

[00:13:55] Anyway, I digress

[00:13:57] The crash underscores Iran's broader issues including high road and air accident rates

[00:14:03] Raising questions about the regime's competence and priorities while Raisi's death may not lead to significant change due to the regime's deep entrenchment

[00:14:10] It highlights ongoing issues and dissatisfaction among Iranians in a regime that often attributes failures to divine will

[00:14:17] The public wonders how the government will rationalize this event

[00:14:21] President Raisi linked to the mass execution of dissidents in the 1980s will likely not be widely mourned

[00:14:28] We can talk about that in a second, but his death alone is unlikely to destabilize the regime significantly

[00:14:35] Chris what did you what do you think about it?

[00:14:37] Yeah, well, I'm not one to wish ill on other people

[00:14:40] But I personally do not feel that the death of President Raisi is a tragedy for humanity

[00:14:46] You know as you mentioned just a moment ago. He was responsible for the mass killing of political dissidents in the 1980s

[00:14:53] So, I'm not sure whether his death went up being a positive thing for Iran or not and I'm not sure at the moment

[00:14:59] Have they decided who's gonna succeed him under the current system? It's

[00:15:04] So Iran in their system. They have a number of

[00:15:07] Vice presidents the first vice president whose name

[00:15:11] His name escapes me off the top of my head right now, but we talk about this with Philip

[00:15:15] He is right now interim president and under their system

[00:15:19] They'll have a new election in

[00:15:22] Sometime in June. Yeah. Yeah. Okay cool to fill to fill that role for a number for like another four-year term. Yeah

[00:15:29] Definitely. Well, yeah on that day the news broke a few friends asked me what I thought about what happened and obviously

[00:15:36] Initially my mind did wander down to assassination just for a moment

[00:15:40] But ultimately I felt that was unlikely as there are

[00:15:43] Easier ways to kill people than waiting for a target to get into a helicopter and fly through bad weather conditions

[00:15:50] Also if there were any device on a on the helicopter would likely be found by a subsequent investigation

[00:15:56] and the only comparison I could think of was the downing of pac-1 in the

[00:16:01] 1980s which had the Pakistani president on board and he was killed in a plane crash and Fred Burton from the Department of State Security

[00:16:11] Investigated that I don't know that one. You familiar with that one? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There's also

[00:16:16] crash

[00:16:17] Polish Air Force

[00:16:19] Transport crashed in was that in in in Spolensk? It was visiting. It was a high delegation visiting Russia and killed them

[00:16:26] Yeah killed a whole bunch of Poland senior leaders. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Was that found to be an act of sort of sabotage or no

[00:16:33] I don't think that's ever been I

[00:16:35] Don't think it's ever been proven

[00:16:37] Because we pack one the interesting thing with that one investigation did find in the end

[00:16:42] it was a suspicious can of coke that had been in the cockpit and apparently it had a

[00:16:47] I call it a chemical weapon. I might be wrong here

[00:16:50] So if Dan because he's out there forgive me if I get this wrong

[00:16:53] but it was some sort of kind of chemical weapon that went off at a certain at a you know certain altitude that

[00:16:58] incapacitated the pilots and caused its crash

[00:17:01] That's what Fred Burton concluded and obviously they found that through

[00:17:05] You know what happens with a plane crash is usually try and rebuild the aircraft and look for what's missing then they look for

[00:17:12] Like they could find burn marks quite easy

[00:17:15] It shouldn't be there that are inconsistent with the type of crash and it looks like so so basically if somebody did

[00:17:21] Bump off the the president in that way. It will probably be discovered through the subsequent investigation

[00:17:28] so

[00:17:29] Yeah, and I think there's a huge political risk when bumping off heads the state

[00:17:33] I don't think because who would be the culprit so ultimately I think if there were anybody immediately

[00:17:39] He would be considering doing that. It would probably be the Israeli government and I don't think that they would

[00:17:45] Target a head of state. They would probably find in fact, they were probably more likely target somebody

[00:17:50] more operationally important like the leader of

[00:17:55] Cuts force or

[00:17:57] Yeah, or the or the quits force general who had the Syria Lebanon Gaza file that they killed in the airstrike

[00:18:05] Yeah, and they tend to do it in a more spectacular obvious way like a rocket attack or a bomb on a car or

[00:18:13] machine-gunning people and or going into a hotel room and you know

[00:18:17] It's mothering someone etc, which is you know past tactics Mossad have used for assassination. So so just to

[00:18:24] Restate it. I do not think that the Israeli intelligence are involved and I do not think this was an act of

[00:18:31] Sabotage or assassination. So what I suspect is more likely to have happened

[00:18:35] It was an unfortunate accident and it was probably it was likely avoidable to Sir President rise

[00:18:40] He was flying in a Bell 2 1 2 and that particular model of helicopter

[00:18:44] He was flying in was over 40 years old. In fact, it might well have been in Iran during the 1979

[00:18:51] revolution

[00:18:52] And it's an old helicopter

[00:18:54] Which would be reliance on parts acquired by the black market or a third party because the American government have banned sales of any aircraft

[00:19:01] parts to Iran or at least any American made aircraft parts to Iran and

[00:19:05] Interestingly the f-14 Tomcat

[00:19:08] The reason why the American government have destroyed all their Tomcats because there aren't any a mothball

[00:19:13] There are only now museum pieces around

[00:19:16] They destroyed all the components because they don't want any

[00:19:19] Components getting into hands of the Iranians and I found it out when I went to the Pima Airspace Museum in Arizona many many

[00:19:25] Years ago. It's a really great place to go. By the way if you're into aircraft, my poor wife didn't enjoy as much as I did

[00:19:38] Then with the aviation angles

[00:19:40] Well, obviously the pilot decided to fly over a mountain in thick fog

[00:19:44] Which means they would have to be completely reliant on instruments

[00:19:48] With no visual reference at all. It's very easy to get disorientated in in thick thick fog

[00:19:54] And when you're an aircraft, you're not just dealing with you know forward and backwards you can go upside down

[00:19:59] You could do all sorts of things that very easy to end up in maybe not paying attention to your equipment

[00:20:05] Or if you don't necessarily have the best navigational equipment because again, we don't know what the Iranians had in that helicopter

[00:20:12] I'm sure they probably had

[00:20:13] third party GPS systems and stuff but

[00:20:17] Again how reliable are those things you're navigating of sea mountains?

[00:20:21] So there's heights you have to be aware of a particular point

[00:20:24] And again was the pilot qualified to fly bad weather and flying mountains and also in mountains

[00:20:30] You get sink effect and all sorts of things affect you from an air point a flying point of view

[00:20:35] so I think it's much more likely that the

[00:20:39] President crashed in this helicopter

[00:20:41] And I think it was totally avoidable because one part of presidential protection is not just protecting people from you know

[00:20:49] would be gunmen etc is also protecting the president from bad decisions and

[00:20:54] Somebody wasn't there paying attention to what was going on and you know

[00:20:58] Some sort of hubris or whatever thinking that they could fly in this terrible weather

[00:21:02] The weather, you know pilots get access to weather reports. You can get weather satellite reports

[00:21:08] Most pilots usually know much more about the weather than most lay people and

[00:21:12] So I think it would be highly unlikely the pilot didn't know what he was flying into it didn't come out as a surprise

[00:21:18] So I think it was just stupidity or hubris who led to this

[00:21:23] What else and then yeah

[00:21:25] So I think then this massive failure on the Iranian government's part to protect his own president

[00:21:30] Not only they allowed to fly in an old helicopter in terrible weather, but they also couldn't locate him for hours

[00:21:35] Do they not possess transponders and emergency beacons for the president?

[00:21:39] I mean doesn't the president have a mobile phone, you know, he could have survived the crash potential

[00:21:44] I don't know the details and he could have died due to the time it took to find him because he would have been

[00:21:49] Stuck but injured and in terrible weather up a mountain where it's gonna be very cold

[00:21:54] And and literally minutes or hours can mean the difference between life and death

[00:21:59] And so the Iranians clearly from an institutional point of view are not set up to protect heads of state properly

[00:22:06] I mean had this happened to an American president, which I don't think would have this way

[00:22:09] But how did it happen? You know rescue efforts would have located the president fairly swiftly

[00:22:15] I don't think you'd have half this that thing about we never would have lost the crash site if if no, you know

[00:22:21] the hell freezing over a marine one crashes

[00:22:25] We would have real-time location of that wreckage at all times

[00:22:29] It would never it would never happen exactly and they wouldn't allow him to fly in such terrible conditions either

[00:22:35] So it's so yes, I think ultimately this all points to

[00:22:39] This will come up again later this theme

[00:22:41] I feel like the Iranian system is sort of falling apart a little bit

[00:22:45] I think this is a sign of that. So I don't know how you feel about it. So I'll hand it back to you. Yeah

[00:22:51] This is a really good points you you raised there

[00:22:54] Philip mentioned something to me yesterday that I didn't know about but I found really interesting

[00:22:59] So the IRGC which in the Iranian system

[00:23:03] May be a little bit strong, but you could sort of compare it to like the SS, right?

[00:23:07] Yeah in terms of like it's its own sort of quasi political religious

[00:23:13] Paramilitary organization that has its hands in all kinds of corporate interests and everything

[00:23:17] But also has like its own little military and intelligence service all built into itself, right?

[00:23:22] So the IRGC has its own Air Force its own Navy its own ground forces its own intelligence service, right?

[00:23:29] And then all Iran also has like a regular a regular army. It's called the artesh

[00:23:35] And a regular Air Force, right? So this Bell

[00:23:39] Transport was from the regular Iranian Air Force. There's another flight detachment

[00:23:45] I've actually featured them in active measures quite a bit that

[00:23:48] transports

[00:23:49] Leadership connected to the to the Supreme Leader's office. I they're they're a separate. They're they're sort of a separate thing. So I'm curious why

[00:23:57] Right, you see wasn't on one of those and just on a regular Iranian Air Force. Hello, but anyway, so the IRGC

[00:24:05] Grounded their drones in the area because they knew the weather was too bad

[00:24:09] So it's the weather is too bad to fly unmanned drones, yeah, which go at a very high height

[00:24:15] Yeah, right

[00:24:16] but not bad enough that you send a helicopter through the same area with your

[00:24:20] President and your foreign minister and a couple other senior people who aren't who aren't household names to us all on board

[00:24:28] Like it's just like to your point. Yeah, it's it's totally avoidable

[00:24:32] And yeah, it's it's it's sexy and it's and it's interesting to be like, oh, you know

[00:24:37] I wonder what I wonder what I wonder what actually happened, but this is a case where

[00:24:43] Incompetent don't don't let don't let malevolent speak for incompetence totally avoidable and it's sort of like, you know

[00:24:50] It's like yeah, the helicopter was up in an area where it shouldn't been the weather was bad and it crashed. I mean the

[00:24:56] Very similar thing happened tragically with Kobe Bryant, you know back and it was that early 2020

[00:25:04] Early this year this winter

[00:25:08] Marine Corps Chinook crashed flying over in a mountainous area of Southern, California

[00:25:13] Same thing, you know it it happens. We had a similar thing in

[00:25:18] 1994 with senior leaders of the intelligence services where Chinook was flying in

[00:25:23] mountainous areas of Scotland

[00:25:25] But I need to remind myself of what the conclusion of that was because it was originally concluded as pilot error

[00:25:30] But I believe actually it might have been a mechanical fault with the the helicopter itself

[00:25:35] There were quite a few that got grounded sort of afterwards and there's been a few

[00:25:38] Issues with the Chinook helicopter over the years and in the early sort of 2000s late 90s. Yeah

[00:25:44] Yeah, I was really also and on on Sunday. I

[00:25:48] Tweeted about this a little bit my surprise that yeah

[00:25:53] Their president and their foreign minister went down was was missing for several hours

[00:25:57] And they couldn't they couldn't locate him and that's just really Iran I said this on on Twitter Iran is not some tin-pot

[00:26:05] banana Republic

[00:26:07] dictatorship, they're a I

[00:26:09] Mean, they're not they're not 10 feet tall. They're not unstoppable, you know, but there are a

[00:26:15] fairly advanced

[00:26:16] Capable middle power, you know

[00:26:19] They should be able to keep track of their senior leadership

[00:26:22] like imagine if if

[00:26:25] If Iran had nuclear weapons, you know and their president and their

[00:26:30] Their system is a bit different from ours. So to think of yeah, right. He's title is president, but

[00:26:36] It's not quite correct to think of that in the same way as a federal system like ours or a parliamentary system, right?

[00:26:42] It's a bit different. So in the in the situation where yeah, okay

[00:26:46] let's say Iran has nuclear weapons right and

[00:26:49] for some reason the

[00:26:51] Their president is in that chain of command, right?

[00:26:55] that would be necessary to order the launch or deployment of a nuclear weapon right and

[00:27:01] You have a key node in that in that chain command who's just

[00:27:07] Missing you don't know where he is. You know, that's an absolute

[00:27:10] Crisis moment and that's why like early on in the Cold War

[00:27:15] the

[00:27:16] the US government spent

[00:27:18] Billions of dollars building up this building up this

[00:27:22] Infrastructure to keep track of everyone in the presidential line of succession

[00:27:27] So Garrett Graff previous guest on this show years ago. He had a book out. It's called Raven Rock

[00:27:34] And it's all about the history of the US government's continuity of government planning

[00:27:38] you know, like what happens in the event of a nuclear war with the Soviets what if there's a

[00:27:44] Nuclear terrorist incident, you know an asteroid strike a huge pandemic that kills scores of people, you know stuff like that

[00:27:51] Previously in the Cold War. There was a system called the FEMA central locator system that could have

[00:27:59] Depending on the depending on the level of like

[00:28:03] Alert status that the country was on people would be tracked more closely, you know, so rather okay

[00:28:10] we know the Secretary of

[00:28:12] Transportation right I forget what what number he is offhand and in line succession, but he is right

[00:28:19] Okay, the Secretary of Transportation is sitting in his home right now

[00:28:24] Okay, and under normal sort of peacetime conditions or whatever. We don't we're fine

[00:28:29] Just knowing that he's in his home, right?

[00:28:31] But let's say okay

[00:28:33] We move to Defcon 2 or whatever and there's some sort of major crisis with the Soviets looking through down

[00:28:40] like in like a

[00:28:41] Cuban Missile Crisis kind of situation right they will be able to know okay the Secretary of State

[00:28:47] Sorry, the the Secretary of Transportation got up and walked down the hallway

[00:28:50] Like that's how closely they would track people in the presidential line of succession in those circumstances

[00:28:56] the

[00:28:57] Program is called something different now, but essentially the same thing

[00:29:03] Yeah, the same thing exists

[00:29:05] I once many years ago saw a screen in a certain room in a certain building that had like

[00:29:12] POTUS DC V POTUS

[00:29:16] Wilmington you know and like a very it was a very general kind of list but looking at that screen you could see where

[00:29:23] All these people were and it's just odd that you know Iran

[00:29:27] Could like you know you lost your president your foreign minister for hours, and you didn't know where it was they needed a Turkish drone

[00:29:35] To come and help them find in it and the EU's Copernicus satellite service

[00:29:40] Yeah, pretty

[00:29:44] Pretty embarrassing moment for them. I would say yeah

[00:29:48] Yeah

[00:29:49] Definitely and allegedly the drone that found him then drew a star and crescent on the you can see it on the flight radar

[00:29:57] map

[00:29:59] so I

[00:30:01] I'm not quite sure what the symbolism of that is but that was an interesting little tidbit to that

[00:30:07] I'm not sure what to make of that yeah, I don't

[00:30:11] Okay, so there. There is reporting that I think the State Department spokesman was asked this at a

[00:30:18] press conference and

[00:30:21] Said that the Iranians asked the u.s.

[00:30:25] for

[00:30:26] assistance during the search

[00:30:28] And the u.s. Declined for he said logistical reasons and wouldn't go into any more than that

[00:30:34] I mean obviously it would be outrageous if we had helped them, but I find it interesting that they asked

[00:30:39] I also find it hard to believe that we wouldn't have known where

[00:30:43] Raisi crashed and that he was dead probably before the Iranians did well

[00:30:47] This is it because you know it's the president of a country daily says death to America, and it builds the entire sort of

[00:30:54] System up to destroy America and destroy Israel and then have to turn to America for help

[00:31:00] I think they can just go and take a flying

[00:31:03] Basically

[00:31:05] Yeah, I think as a diplomat, I think that's what I would have said but yeah

[00:31:10] Yeah, yeah, I uh

[00:31:14] Yeah, I I so my

[00:31:16] Sort of hypothetical thought on how this could have gone down, and I don't know that

[00:31:22] That this happened

[00:31:24] I haven't read anything suggesting it but just my knowledge of the intelligence community and what we're

[00:31:29] Able to do and what likely would have happened so I could see something where

[00:31:35] This seems this seems plausible to me so okay, so

[00:31:39] That helicopter goes missing right it doesn't land at the location where it was supposed to be at that time

[00:31:46] That word then hey we don't know where the president is that then filters through

[00:31:53] Iran sort of senior leadership

[00:31:55] Cadre into the IRGC into the military right and

[00:31:59] somewhere along that chain

[00:32:02] gets

[00:32:03] intercepted probably through SIGINT means so that could be a

[00:32:10] Clandestine forward listening post managed by the NSA or a remote sensor in place somewhere perhaps in

[00:32:17] Maybe somewhere in northern Iraq. I know the crash site was only 160 miles from the Iraqi border so potential

[00:32:25] You know could be a satellite could be a tap on some sort of telecommunications infrastructure somewhere, right?

[00:32:30] But so then we get notice that okay the Iranians don't know where Raiisi is

[00:32:35] at the same time

[00:32:38] We have a constellation of satellites up there. It's called the

[00:32:41] their DSP satellites of the defense support program and they have

[00:32:46] these

[00:32:47] sensors on board that are

[00:32:50] Designed to detect the thermal emissions right of a

[00:32:57] like a nuclear bomb going off or a or a scud missile launching or let's say a

[00:33:04] Bunch of surface ships for the Russian Northern Fleet

[00:33:07] You know fire up their engines all of a sudden and they're about to put to sea like we would see that in the funnels

[00:33:12] Of these ships right as they're as they're powering up

[00:33:16] They've those systems

[00:33:19] apparently have gotten much more sophisticated to the extent where they could detect like

[00:33:25] shoulder fired surface-to-air missile going off in a certain location or a

[00:33:32] Large fire, right?

[00:33:34] I would believe fully that

[00:33:37] one of those DSP satellites

[00:33:40] Registered the the heat plume from the fire after the crash, right?

[00:33:45] So if you know, okay, Raiisi is missing

[00:33:48] We know generally the location and the time where he probably went missing

[00:33:51] Even if some even if this didn't register in real time

[00:33:54] It's very easy to then go back for the data for some analysts to go back through and look

[00:33:59] Okay, this part of Iran at this time. Do we have anything happening?

[00:34:02] Do we see anything happening there that shouldn't be I mean like the Navy heard the Titan submersible almost a year ago

[00:34:08] We heard that pop in real time, you know

[00:34:13] Same sort of a I mean different this is under that's under the ocean

[00:34:16] This is you know up in space, but essentially the same the same idea behind both those systems, right?

[00:34:23] and

[00:34:24] Then okay, so we have that location fixed, right?

[00:34:28] And then you have another imagery

[00:34:31] Satellite go overhead or maybe you have a drone go up

[00:34:35] like I said, it's only 160 miles from the Iraqi border and like when the the forte

[00:34:42] Global Hawks go up into the Black Sea

[00:34:44] That's about the distance that they are from from from Crimea from Russian territory or Russian held territory, right?

[00:34:51] So, okay, they can we can see they can at least see probably that far right over the border into Iran

[00:34:57] And then you have an analyst go and look and do like it basically like a

[00:35:04] bomb damage assessment of the of the wreckage and

[00:35:08] Determined. Okay, there's there's there's no one left alive there and you could very easily have a very good idea that

[00:35:16] That are easy is dead long before the Iranians have even found the crash site again

[00:35:21] I don't know that that's what happened

[00:35:23] Knowing what we're capable of I would be surprised if we didn't know that

[00:35:27] Do you or Philip had have any insight on?

[00:35:30] What the kind of Iranian populations reaction to this was because I know on Twitter there's different sort of things

[00:35:37] There were some people who are saying or open celebrations and it was all clamped down

[00:35:41] There are other saying there was like open morning, right, you know any any any thoughts on on what?

[00:35:47] Action was so racy's nickname was and you touched on this in your intro bit

[00:35:51] racy's nickname was the butcher of Tehran and he was known for yeah back in the 80s and 90s like just

[00:35:57] Straight up murdering tons of tons of distance anti-regime people, right?

[00:36:02] So he was not he was not a popular loved man

[00:36:05] Despite what I mean if the IRGC if the regime supporters want to put people out in the streets for a demonstration

[00:36:11] They can do that. You know, they just they just call them up

[00:36:15] So, I mean, yeah, there were big protests mourning him in in Tehran and I mean probably all over

[00:36:22] all over Iran, but that's not

[00:36:25] Indicative that he was you know loved he wasn't at all Philip said that

[00:36:32] his election or election slash appointment by Haman IE was sort of it

[00:36:39] Like an FU to the rest of the population, you know

[00:36:41] Like here I'm gonna put the butcher of Tehran as president

[00:36:44] Like it's a it's a signal that we are doubling down on our hardline ideology, right?

[00:36:50] One thing that that Philip talked about

[00:36:54] Was that the degree to which the Iranian militias

[00:36:59] That are backed by Iran

[00:37:01] openly sort of mourned him

[00:37:04] in ways that Philip

[00:37:07] Philip

[00:37:08] Said would probably not have been likely even several years ago

[00:37:12] Like it would have been a smaller closed service in Baghdad

[00:37:15] not you know these like

[00:37:18] huge

[00:37:19] ceremonies and stuff like they had he finds that interesting and sort of goes into a lot more about why and what that means and

[00:37:25] Stuff in the in the interview. Yeah, cool

[00:37:28] yeah, if you haven't listened that do check it out and

[00:37:31] You know Phillips

[00:37:33] Come on I think he's probably our most featured guest now

[00:37:37] I think he might have achieved that status of the double check, but I think he has so yeah, that's great

[00:37:43] I think so at least um, at least come back a couple seasons. Yeah, there hasn't been anyone on remotely that much

[00:37:50] Yeah, he's got a little bit of competition, but I think he might hold the crown currently

[00:37:55] Right, let's take a break and we'll be right back

[00:37:58] So

[00:38:15] Because of comparisons between Israel and Iran on the espionage front from the Atlantic which the piece that you picked up

[00:38:21] Yes, this is a really great article in the Atlantic. It's by Kylie Moore Gilbert. She's an Australian

[00:38:29] academic focused on the Middle East

[00:38:31] She wrote an article called in the game of spy versus spy Israel keeps getting the better of Iran

[00:38:37] I think is really sort of indicative of

[00:38:39] You know despite a lot of Iran successes in in the Middle East with the with with militias and stuff

[00:38:45] They're still they still got some serious problems

[00:38:47] So numerous foreigners including business people journalists tourists and academics have been unjustly convicted of espionage in Iran

[00:38:54] Johan Flodres

[00:38:56] Hope I pronounce that correctly a Swedish EU diplomat currently faces severe charges and a possible death sentence on

[00:39:02] baseless accusations of spying for Israel

[00:39:04] This is in Iran

[00:39:06] This article as we said is an

[00:39:10] Australian academic was wrongfully imprisoned in Iran for over two years on false espionage charges

[00:39:15] The Iranian intelligence community is marked by chaos and incompetence often arresting innocent people while failing to capture actual spies

[00:39:23] their officers frequently bungle operations abroad with recent notable failures in countries like Peru and Thailand in

[00:39:29] Contrast Israel's intelligence operations have been highly efficient successfully carrying out assassinations and sabotage within Iran

[00:39:36] many successful Israeli operations involve collaboration with local Iranian recruits

[00:39:41] undermining the regime from within

[00:39:44] The Iranian regime effectively suppresses domestic dissent but struggles to counter Israeli intelligence activities

[00:39:50] Iran prioritizes the loyalty over competence and security agencies leaning to a lack of professionalism and effectiveness

[00:39:57] Iranian intelligence officials often believe in extreme conspiracy theories distorting their understanding and effectiveness

[00:40:03] Iran uses intimidation and threats to coerce cooperation

[00:40:07] Contrasting with Israel's approach of offering incentives for their agents to spy for them

[00:40:12] Many Iranians despise their regime and some openly support Israel advocating for stronger measures against their own government the Iranian regime's

[00:40:19] Authoritarian methods benefit Israel providing an upper hand in the covert intelligence war Chris. What'd you think about this one?

[00:40:25] Yeah

[00:40:26] Well, we've said it in the past that many Middle Eastern countries and their ruling regimes do love to claim

[00:40:32] There's an Israeli spiring in their midst and we points out I think was last July last year

[00:40:37] Sorry with the Turkish elections

[00:40:39] There were certain members of the opposition who were accused of being Israeli spies

[00:40:42] And I think there was little substance to really back that up

[00:40:45] So it doesn't surprise me that Iran likes to accuse people especially dual nationals of being spies for Israel on the West

[00:40:53] There was a really interesting point the article came out and I'll just quickly quote this bit

[00:40:57] We're basically saying the fact that someone who has been convicted of espionage

[00:41:01] however

[00:41:02] unjustly was given access to such people is a testament to the chaotic way in which the intelligence work is conducted in the Islamic Republic

[00:41:10] Indeed, although Iran's authorities talk tough and cast an extremely wide net in their quest to capture the Mossad agents

[00:41:18] They believe are in their midst a prevailing lack of competence has meant that there are very few actual spies ever seem to be caught

[00:41:25] And and I think this sort of goes into what I was saying earlier with the death of the president

[00:41:30] I think it kind of indicates that there's this sort of institutional rot in Iran

[00:41:35] You know

[00:41:36] The regime is unable to protect their president and it seems to be the suspected spy

[00:41:42] Somehow gets seen by many senior people

[00:41:45] Especially somebody accused on baseless charges, so it kind of feels like that they don't really know what they're doing

[00:41:50] And they probably are getting lucky by numbers and brutality

[00:41:56] And also the article points out about how raid Iranian agents have bungled operations abroad and got themselves caught

[00:42:02] So I think ultimately yeah

[00:42:04] The feeling I got from this piece was that there's a sort of massive

[00:42:08] incompetence on Iran's part and it's a dangerous incompetence because when we talk about incompetence people like to think that they're

[00:42:13] Like mr. Bean some bumbling idiot who's ultimately harmless and Iran is far from harmless

[00:42:19] And I think a comparison is being is probably not very fair for mr. Bean, but

[00:42:24] But I think sometimes

[00:42:26] You know, I find this I remember with

[00:42:29] There's that film four lines, which is a really good film

[00:42:32] but it's about these are bumbling al-qaeda members who tried to bomb the

[00:42:38] London Marathon and it's a comedy and I think a lot of people walked away with the wrong message

[00:42:43] They kind of thought oh, well Islamic terrorists are all just bumbling idiots are a bit harmless

[00:42:47] It's like well, no these people, you know with ghast al-qaeda ruthless and with Iran the ruthless

[00:42:53] I mean the president was the butcher of Tehran for crying out loud. So

[00:42:58] Yeah, so I think ultimately like a lot of these brutal regimes

[00:43:03] They use brutality to keep themselves in power

[00:43:05] But really ultimately a lot of the brutality just covers up extreme incompetence

[00:43:11] And I think that sort of my theme on Iran today is just they seem to be terribly incompetent at running things on an ordinary

[00:43:19] Fashion, I don't know what other thoughts you had from the article

[00:43:23] Yeah, it reminds me this article goes into a lot of great detail about

[00:43:28] the Iranians

[00:43:30] the regimes anyway their obsession with

[00:43:34] Any of their perceived enemies therefore is also like an Israeli spy

[00:43:39] You know whether that's you're you're not acting to their appropriate moral standards or you criticize them in any way

[00:43:45] anything that's way short of saying, you know, I'm gonna launch a

[00:43:49] Launch a quadcopter drone to blow something up on the on behalf of Assad like something way far short of that, right?

[00:43:57] It's almost like a kind of like a McCarthyism

[00:43:59] Totally, you know and it just it just it just blinds you to to actual to actual threats to me

[00:44:06] I see that as a this whole thing as a great

[00:44:11] warning or a cautionary tale about allowing

[00:44:15] a country security services to become so

[00:44:18] Politicized by the standards of the ruling the ruling, you know government

[00:44:24] It just it just destroys you in the long run. Yeah, I think it's a good point for

[00:44:28] 2024 with the potential politicization of American intelligence, you know

[00:44:33] Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, cuz usually it just ultimately what you will terrible incompetence, isn't that?

[00:44:40] Mm-hmm. Anyway, sorry

[00:44:42] No, that was that was that was essentially it. Um, yeah, I also find it interesting

[00:44:48] so

[00:44:49] Kylie Moore Gilbert here

[00:44:52] Says I guess her interrogators pressured her when she was in prison

[00:44:57] Pressured her quite a bit to like hey

[00:45:02] Well, we'll let you go if you go back to Australia and spy on our behalf

[00:45:07] And she said well like okay. Well, what if I just say okay, and then I I don't I don't do it

[00:45:13] You know because I'm back in Australia

[00:45:15] And they said, you know, well we have people there and we'll like have you killed

[00:45:20] It's just not a very and this is apparently a thing that they do

[00:45:24] Often and and widely with people that they have in their clutches

[00:45:29] It's it's not a very good way to run an intelligence agent, you know, you don't want them

[00:45:35] Doing this entirely in a drastic. You don't want them like that's why like we don't the CIA doesn't really they don't as a policy

[00:45:42] I don't blackmail

[00:45:44] Development

[00:45:46] Targets because they don't they don't make good agents

[00:45:49] You can never know that if you're if they're telling you what you what they think you want to hear or if they're you know

[00:45:56] Actually a double and trying to screw you over because you you know threaten their life and their family in the process

[00:46:01] It's just it's just not a smart way to conduct business. No, definitely

[00:46:05] No, what is it? How would you feel you listening out there or somebody blackmailed you into doing something?

[00:46:10] I think once you've kind of found the new normality this horrible situation

[00:46:14] You'll probably find every way possible to screw your blackmailer over. Yeah, I think my instinct if I was about to face years of

[00:46:22] Imprisonment or torture in Iran and they give me the choice to go back to England spy

[00:46:25] I say yeah

[00:46:26] Hell yeah, I'm gonna come spy for you and I'll go straight to where my five and say this is what happened

[00:46:30] Yeah, I need protection now. Fuck you Ron

[00:46:38] The article doesn't say anything about this but that was my thought too it was like well

[00:46:41] What if you know, okay, just tell Osseo can they can they hook you up? I don't know

[00:46:46] I'm sure it's I'm sure it's within their within their skill set to you. Yeah, we had this good in the rain

[00:46:52] You had an Iranian

[00:46:53] News agency that had to leave the country now and they were under constant 24-hour armed police protection

[00:46:59] Up until I think it was about February or March this year

[00:47:03] where in the end they concluded it was better just to shut down their London operation and move somewhere else, but

[00:47:09] You know, so yeah, they're definitely are under threat by under threat by the regime you're saying that's why they were under protection

[00:47:16] Yeah, yeah by the regime and and there was

[00:47:18] It was a suspicious individual. I think we talked about it one of the other

[00:47:22] Espresso martinis there was a suspicious individual who was arrested for potentially scouting out for an assassination attempt

[00:47:29] Whether or not he would be the would-be assassin. I was always unclear on but but yeah

[00:47:35] Yeah, so they do definitely have the capability and there's certainly been a history in the past of other regimes that have bumped off

[00:47:42] Political dissidents abroad and things but it's they're quite rare those kind of cases

[00:47:46] So I still think that it is Iranians are probably just playing more into fear

[00:47:51] Then they would actually into I should be able to do that. But yeah for for

[00:47:57] the Iranians to

[00:48:00] You know hypothetically let's you know take them at their word on this threat for the Iranians to murder an Australian citizen in Australia

[00:48:07] Especially one who had been sort of a who is a well-known figure and had been at this point would have been

[00:48:14] You know publicly released in a in a prisoner swap. That's that's a that's a huge provocation

[00:48:20] You know, that's just something that you just do you just do no indeed indeed

[00:48:24] Yeah, and I just don't think I just don't think they better do it

[00:48:28] I think it's just a good sort of talking point to scare people and I think the whole reigning regime ultimately

[00:48:35] Is backed up by fear

[00:48:39] But ultimately if somebody knew what they were doing, they could probably undermine that regime very quickly

[00:48:45] If they wanted to so it's and I think that's what freaks them out

[00:48:49] You know when the Arab Spring kicked off and was it 2011 2010 a lot of regimes were very disturbed by that

[00:48:57] And

[00:48:59] Ultimately, you know, there's enough people they could probably change things they wanted to

[00:49:05] say yeah, so it'd be interesting to yes, we'll see what the

[00:49:11] You know back to Iran and the president's death and stuff what the kind of the future holds for Iran

[00:49:15] I mean, I don't know if you or Philip had any thoughts on

[00:49:19] Where things might be heading are we heading for something more positive or we're just gonna have another kind of hardliner

[00:49:26] And they would just stay in power

[00:49:29] I'll keep a lot of the details of this for that for that for the interview, but it does suggest

[00:49:34] It's a it's a change in

[00:49:36] It moves the chess pieces around for what happens when how many eventually goes that's for sure. But it also suggests an eventual

[00:49:45] shift in the ruling elite of Iran from like first and second generation on from

[00:49:51] From the revolution right to a third generation and further and like, you know, what is the regime?

[00:49:58] What is the Islamic Revolution? What is their ideology after like?

[00:50:02] After like it's passed out of living memory, you know

[00:50:05] At least the people who were responsible for like like who was there, you know, yeah

[00:50:10] Well, I think time will tell what the future is with Iran there

[00:50:14] We're now gonna look at a piece from New York Times about some secret files that show how her mass by

[00:50:21] On everyday Palestinians, so I'll just go through the details

[00:50:24] So Hamas is General Security Service GSS

[00:50:28] conducts extensive surveillance on Palestinians in Gaza gathering intelligence on journalists protesters and individuals suspected of

[00:50:36] dissent or

[00:50:37] Immoral behavior the GSS engages in activities such as trailing journalists removing criticism from social media

[00:50:45] defaming political adversaries and

[00:50:48] Undermining protests which indicate a zero tolerance policy for dissent

[00:50:53] Gazans face dual pressures from Israel's blockade and Hamas is oppressive governance

[00:50:59] With security forces closely monitoring and restricting their activities and expressions the GSS

[00:51:05] operates with substantial budget and personnel

[00:51:09] dedicated to spreading propaganda and attacking opponents

[00:51:12] Functioning as a crucial part of Hamas's governance and internal security

[00:51:16] The New York Times reviewed internal documents and interviewed individuals named in the files confirming the GSS tactics of censorship

[00:51:24] intimidation and

[00:51:25] Surveillance drawing parallels to other author Terran regimes. So Matt, do you have any thoughts on this?

[00:51:30] This I've wanted to talk about this for a while since the article came out

[00:51:33] It's a really interesting look at the kind of you know

[00:51:38] Big brother surveillance state that Hamas has been running in in Gaza

[00:51:44] It's a really unfortunate, you know

[00:51:46] I think it it it really makes you have empathy for a lot of the people there that are just stuck in this impossible

[00:51:52] Awful situation that you know, I think there's this sort of fantasy that like

[00:51:56] Palestinians can just reject

[00:51:59] Hamas, you know and like go to the

[00:52:01] Polling booth and you know cast their vote and kick these guys out, you know, like the way you guys may

[00:52:07] Kick out the Tories not to compare the Tories to Hamas at all

[00:52:10] But you know like that that that privilege that you have and it's not you know

[00:52:14] Yeah to go and cast your vote and and change your government if if the majority of you have decided that you want to change

[00:52:21] You know, that's not a luxury that they have

[00:52:24] And it just reinforces my belief that you know, if you're a Western progressive and you hold up Hamas as

[00:52:32] a like

[00:52:35] Instrument of

[00:52:36] Class revolution and queer liberation or whatever you either are

[00:52:41] Lying or you fundamentally have no idea what you're talking about and you're being used

[00:52:47] You're a useful idiot. Yeah, I would agree with you on that

[00:52:50] I mean

[00:52:50] You know

[00:52:51] I'm not alone saying this but the Palestinians of Gaza will never be free and never prosper as long as Hamas are allowed to rule

[00:52:57] over them

[00:52:58] they're deeply repressive and they run a brutal dictatorship as this article is pointed out and

[00:53:03] They you know

[00:53:04] the article shows very well the lengths Hamas will go to to spawn its citizens and

[00:53:09] Remain a dominant force and Salman Rushdie

[00:53:11] Gave a talk just recently in which he said that if the Palestinians managed to achieve an independent statehood

[00:53:18] But with Hamas in charge it would create a situation akin to the Taliban in Afghanistan

[00:53:24] So people in the West really want to help the Palestinians achieve peace and security for themselves

[00:53:28] They also need to be calling out Hamas alongside calling out Israel for his excessive force

[00:53:33] So, you know and there's a quote in here that sort of says it all really was from one the people they interviewed a man named

[00:53:39] Ihab

[00:53:41] Fasfoo who was a journalist in the Gaza Strip and he said that we're facing bombardment by the occupation and

[00:53:47] Thuggery by the local authorities and that I think is the situation on the ground in Gaza at the moment

[00:53:54] The Palestinians of Gaza are between a rock and a hard place and Hamas will not tolerate any dissent

[00:54:00] Hence why there'd be no elections since they got into power. They kind of basically

[00:54:04] Hamas managed to use the democratic process to then end the democratic process, which is you know something kind of fascists and

[00:54:13] Dictatorships like to do yeah, and but you were just saying just moments ago

[00:54:16] You know we do I think sometimes people do take their right to vote for granted

[00:54:21] It's this is the the kind of alternative to democracy and it's not great

[00:54:26] So yeah

[00:54:27] And I think people in the West really if you know need to be calling out her mass

[00:54:32] Because there will never be peace as long as they're in power

[00:54:35] You know as we said, you know just a few days after October 7th

[00:54:40] We did quite a big piece on on

[00:54:42] Hamas and and their genocidal intent towards Israeli citizens and it's a stated fact

[00:54:48] It's in their charter and so there would never be peace as long as you've got her mass in charge and they're you know

[00:54:53] wanting to regroup and commit another atrocity like October the 7th and in Israel then

[00:54:58] respond again with their full might like they've done and kill many innocent people like they have done and

[00:55:02] This cycle of violence will kind of continue

[00:55:05] As long as people in the West keep providing flack for her mass and members and also I'm gonna call out member states the UN

[00:55:12] as well because

[00:55:13] Frequently they don't call out her mass either they spend most their time criticizing Israel and I get it

[00:55:18] Israel does need to be held to account also for a successive force or

[00:55:23] From what I see and feel as excessive force

[00:55:26] Thousands of civilians have been killed. I don't know the exact figures because

[00:55:31] Because we can't yeah, because her mass run the health ministry. It's difficult to get an exact figure, but it's definitely

[00:55:38] without a doubt gonna be

[00:55:40] Somewhere around that 40,000 figure it may be

[00:55:43] You know five thousand above that or five thousand below it

[00:55:47] But that's a lot of people a lot of people who've lost relatives

[00:55:51] Etc. Mm-hmm, right? I think we will wrap up there. Unfortunately, not the cheeriest of notes to finish on

[00:55:59] Matt thank you very much for your time today

[00:56:01] We are now gonna move over to extra shot

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[00:56:26] Yes, Israel nightmare fuel stuff. Yeah. Yeah

[00:56:30] God yeah, okay. It's a funny territory there and then we're gonna be looking at the FBI cutting ties of Russian informants

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[00:57:26] Thanks for listening, this is secrets and spies