S8 Ep1: Espresso Martini: Coups in Africa, Prigozhin’s death and a Russian pilot defects.

[00:00:04] Secrets and Spies presents Espresso Martini with Chris Carr and Matt Fulton. Hello everybody and welcome back to Secrets and Spies and Espresso Martini. So Matt, how are you and how was your summer break?

[00:00:34] I'm doing good. I wouldn't say it was much of a break. It was more just a period with less to do than the months before where I sort of took that time and shifted it to other days. I was working on the novel on active measures quite a bit. Yeah, I didn't really go anywhere. It was too much fun, which is kind of hold up working, you know?

[00:01:03] Yeah. How about you? Cool, cool. Yeah, no, I had a nice couple of weeks off. The beginning of August was a bit busy and then I was trying to take the last two weeks off and I say trying because still a few little worky things happened. But I did go to my first ever Greek wedding, which was cool. So I was in Greece for a couple of days, well for about four days at the end of August, early September and it was that was lovely.

[00:01:27] Got a bit sunburned and attacked by some, well, I got attacked by mosquitoes at the airport on the way out. I did absolutely fine on the trip itself. And then I don't know what happened. But as I got off the airplane, I just noticed my leg had been completely massacred by what I assume was a mosquito or it could have been a flea. I don't know. But so something got on the plane that attacked my legs and I could have done without that.

[00:01:56] But the wedding itself was really great. Lots of late nights and lots of loud music. In fact, I got a warning on my iPhone. I've been in a loud environment for three days in succession. That was quite funny. And it did strike me as well. It's the closest I've been to Ukraine in a long time because the Black Sea was about 400 miles roughly from where I was. Yeah.

[00:02:20] And that puts it all in perspective a little bit as well. It's just kind of crazy thinking that, you know, whilst we're enjoying the sun, having some fun, there's this terrible kind of war going on just, you know, beyond our sight line. Um, so where in Greece were you? We're a place called Marathon. So it was on the coast. Um, yeah, yeah, no, really good. Highly recommend it. Highly recommend it.

[00:02:41] So no, lovely, lovely time. So yeah, but, uh, but yeah, August, my God, what a busy month. Um, in a way I'm kind of glad we did take the time off because looking at our list of stories, um, as you put it, it was quite intimidating and it is.

[00:02:57] Um, yeah. And, and, um, so, you know, on today's episode, we're going to do our very best to cover a wide range of stories. Um, in what turns out to be quite a dramatic August, but I still think despite our best efforts, we're going to be scratching the surface. So on today's show, uh, on the espresso martini, we're going to take a look at a coup in Nigeria and Gabon. Uh, we've also got Pregosian's death and his legacy haunting us from the grave.

[00:03:22] We also have Russian pilots involved in a dramatic defection to Ukraine with a mil MI8 helicopter. That's sort of like a helicopter version of the hunt for October. And then on extra shot, which follows this show and that's the Patreon show. We will be looking at the concerns of a NATO collapse if, uh, Donald Trump is reelected as president. We will also be looking at a mysterious submarine sinking off the coast of Taiwan and a new security agreement between China and Fiji.

[00:03:52] And we also have an update on that GCHQ stabbing story that we spoke about. I think that was in probably March, April. We spoke about that. It's been a while. Um, and Matt, you also brought to my attention, the, uh, the Errol Morris, the legendary sort of film documentary filmmaker has a documentary coming out about, uh, John le Carré. And it looks like it's his last interview because John le Carré died a few years back now.

[00:04:16] Um, and this, this interview looks very detailed. Um, and Errol Morris, I mean, has made some great movies. So, uh, so I'm looking forward to having a bit of a chat about that later. Um, so just for listeners, if you're new to us, welcome. Uh, if you're existing listener, welcome back. And, um, don't forget, if you want to get access to extra shot, you will need to be a patron subscriber and patron subscribers will also get the articles are very intimidating article list of everything that we were considering whilst preparing this episode.

[00:04:45] And if you do become a, and if you do become a patron subscriber, um, you get a free coffee cup or a set of coasters. Um, and it depends on which subscription level you go on there. So, uh, we will kick off with the, uh, recent coup in Nigeria and Gabon. And, um, I was going to take some, this is quite a complex story. So I'm actually going to take some key points from three articles from the drive BBC news and AP news. And I'll link to all of those in the show notes.

[00:05:15] Um, so just to summarize what happened and then Matt, I'll come to you for your thoughts. Um, and circle back to myself. So, um, the key points are military takeovers are resurging in West and Central Africa as evidenced by the recent coups in Nigeria and Gabon. These coups now make it seven in three years in Africa. So that's quite a lot.

[00:05:35] Um, in both Nigeria and Gabon, as well as other African nations, discontent is widespread due to job shortages, corruption, colonial influences, and manipulative electoral processes, including extended presidential terms. And, uh, there's one or two countries out there that suffer from that as well. And, uh, we'll be talking about that later.

[00:05:58] Gabon's president Bongo's controversial third term election after his father's 40 year rule amid, uh, doubts about his health and leadership has led to the recent military intervention, um, in Gabon, which was on the 30th of August. And to be honest, I didn't even know that happened because it was so relaxed on my holiday that, uh, I didn't even know that happened until I was preparing this episode. It was like, oh my God, there's another coup. So, uh, there we go. Cause I was all very focused on Nigeria.

[00:06:24] Um, and then previously on the 26th of July, uh, you had the coup in Nigeria where General Abdur Rahman Chani led a coup against Nigeria's government and placing President Mohammed Bazoum under house arrest. Nigeria's stability is essential for counter-terrorism efforts in the Sahel region. And that's counter-terrorism against Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliated groups and also Boko Haram.

[00:06:51] The ECOWAS, which stands for the Economic Community of West African States, have imposed sanctions against Nigeria and warned of a possible intervention. They also have condemned the coup in Gabon. So, with the potential intervention, um, in Nigeria, not all members of the ECOWAS or ECOWAS, is that how you, how would you make that? That's ECOWAS. ECOWAS. There we are. Sounds better in American and English.

[00:07:19] But, um, so, uh, that, that, they threatened, um, obviously an intervention in Nigeria, but not all members agreed. So, Burkina, Faso and Mali, which are apparently both aligned with Russia, surprisingly have opposed intervention, um, and whilst Nigeria supports intervention. The, uh, U.S. ordered evacuations of non-emergency personnel after the coup and U.S. troops have been restricted to base operations.

[00:07:46] The U.S. has significantly invested in Nigeria since 2012, primarily focusing on counter-terrorism and military training. Notably, some of the coup leaders, like Abdur Rahman Chani, uh, received U.S. military training. Um, so, yeah. And then the Russian government have condemned both coups in, uh, Nigeria and Gabon. Russia's Wagner mercenary group, already active in several African nations, could increase its presence in Nigeria.

[00:08:14] Meanwhile, China, with its vast investments in Africa, is closely watching the developments. The instability in Nigeria and the Sahul region might result in a greater influence from global powers like Russia and China. The Sahul region is already plagued by jihadist violence, as we mentioned earlier, and Nigeria's destabilization might strengthen extremist factions. Nigeria had a reintegration program for former jihadi fighters, which now faces an uncertain future due to the coup.

[00:08:44] The initiative had seen a return of approximately 160 ex-fighters, with many more in the pipeline. Both Nigeria and Gabon are both resources rich, with reserves of uranium, gold, silver, and then you have diamonds, gold, and also uranium in Gabon. Those are the kind of key points. Um, so, Matt, any, any thoughts on any of, of that?

[00:09:08] Well, I think the question that a lot of people have had, at least since, since this last coup in Niger and then in Gabon, is, you know, like, what's causing this pandemic of coups d'etat in the, in the region? Um, I, I don't think there's one sort of clear catch-all answer to apply to all of them, you know?

[00:09:31] I mean, these are all kind of, I mean, yeah, they're sort of roughly in the same, uh, region, but many of them are former French colonies, which seems to have some role to play in this. I mean, there's a, there's a long history of, of colonialism that stretches back in this region that I'm not really qualified to go into in any kind of great depth, but that's certainly there. The specific reasons behind each coup are sort of different, you know?

[00:10:01] So, um, in, in the coup in, um, Niger, the, um, commander of the, of the presidential guard, um, was about to be fired. He was going to be, uh, sacked by the president and he sort of decided, okay, well then rather than, you know, waiting to be fired, why don't I just take control of the country? One way of dealing with it. Right. Um, it's like, yeah, like you hear like, like, like your boss is going to fire you and you think, okay, I'm just going to go in that morning and just take over the company and say, I'm in charge now.

[00:10:30] Um, yeah, that's certainly one way to do it. Um, the coup in, uh, Gabon is sort of a palace coup. As I understand it, it was a, it was a cousin, um, of the current, um, president who sort of muscled his way in. Uh, have you heard of something called the coup trap? No, I haven't actually. No. So it's a, um, it's a theory, I guess, in the realm of international relations. I don't want to say it's, it's more, it's not so much a theory.

[00:10:59] I mean, I think it's, it's quite backed with, with, with evidence, but it basically claims that the key greatest indicator to predict whether or not a country will experience a coup in the future is whether or not they've experienced one in the past. So basically if you previously experienced a coup, you're a lot more likely to experience one again, um, in the future. And this region has been kind of, you know, endemic with these, uh, events over the years.

[00:11:25] So, um, Burkina Faso in a span has two coups in a span of nine months in 2022. Um, Mali has had three coups over nine years in 2012, uh, 2015, 2022. Um, if anything, I think this trend is sort of reverting to a, a, a norm that existed during the cold war.

[00:11:51] Um, you know, also at a time when you had a lot of, uh, great power competition between the U S and the Soviet Union, like, uh, Angola was, um, quite heavily under Soviet influence during, during the cold war. You had a lot of these, um, different coups popping up in the region.

[00:12:09] Um, and then it was sort of after the cold war when it was really just kind of the United States out there, you know, unopposed pushing this idea of, you know, stable democratic governments, um, passing, uh, sanctions on, on any countries in the region who, who did have a successful, uh, coup d'etat kind of put a stop to it for a while.

[00:12:31] But, you know, as we're moving away from that a bit, you know, like Putin famously said, you know, the cold war was kind of a good thing because you had a multipolar world and it wasn't, you know, just all one global superpower running the show. And that's absolutely what, uh, Russian foreign policy under, under Putin's rule has been trying to achieve since then, you know, bringing back a, a multipolar world, having sort of competition with the West, with the United States. Yeah.

[00:12:59] I think if anything, it's a, it's a kind of a, uh, a reversion to, to the norm for the area. Um, unfortunately, and you have, you know, a sort of a belief that this is something that you can do and get away with in the region. I mean, without any kind of real consequences, um, the sort of taboo has kind of melted away. Um, one of the, the problems for the U S in the aftermath of this coup in Niger, the state department hasn't even officially declared that as a coup.

[00:13:28] Um, the reason with that is, is I think you sort of, uh, put in your, in your intro there. Um, the Pentagon has invested a hundred million, uh, has invested a hundred million, um, in, uh, counterterrorism efforts, um, in the region has a drone base. And I think it's, uh, Agadez. Yeah. Yeah. Um, right.

[00:13:49] Where, I mean, that area of, of, of the Sahel in, um, North Africa moving closer towards the sort of Southern edges of the Sahara is kind of the one place right now where jihadism is kind of flourishing. Um, in the world. So if, if the state department, if the white house comes out and declares that, you know, Niger, that the government there came to be as part of a coup d'etat under U S law, we had to suspend all cooperation with them.

[00:14:18] Um, so you have that, that messy kind of idea in international relations that comes into play that, you know, okay, what's the, what's, what would be the greater harm to our interests right now? Just sort of, you know, looking the other way and keeping this cooperation with them on counterterrorism efforts to the extent that we can. Or do we, you know, stick by our sort of democratic principles and say, no, we're not going to, um, support a government that came to power in a coup. And then, you know, you have no influence in the region.

[00:14:47] And to your point, you know, and this gets complicated by our, our next topic a bit with the fate of the Wagner group. It's still kind of up in the air. You know, the Russians are, are right there more than willing to, to, to come in. Well, they're definitely, definitely exploiting that situation. And I mean, there's, there's, there's been alleged, uh, you know, Wagner fingerprints to the coup in Nigeria, at least. Um, so, um, yeah, there's definitely no saints out there at the moment.

[00:15:15] I mean, it's sort of, yeah, you've got sort of China and Russia is definitely increasing their influence in Africa. Um, we've seen certainly with, um, the kind of mixed response towards condemning Russia with their war against Ukraine. I mean, Africa has been very mixed on that, especially, I think South Africa, which is quite surprising. There's a lot of Russian influence in South Africa. Yeah. Um, and to your earlier point as well about the sort of terrorism side of things.

[00:15:41] I had a interview with, um, former CIA officer, Tracy Walder. I think it was about a year and a bit ago now. Um, and she highlighted in my interview that Africa is very much a hotspot for ISIS. And she even argued that Africa may be more important today than the Middle East in regard to Islamist inspired terrorism. And that's definitely something we should dig into a bit more on a later podcast at some point. Because, um, you know, Africa definitely for me has been a bit of a blind spot, um, just because there's so much to cover. And it's very difficult to cover the entire world as an individual.

[00:16:11] Um, it's a bit easier now you're with me. Um, but it's, it's, uh, it's, it's still quite tough to cover all these things. Um, and the other thing as well that crossed my mind, it kind of, these coups remind me slightly, but maybe not so much, but slightly of the Arab Spring. Um, because with the Arab Spring, the majority of those uprisings in the Middle East were linked to discontent over living standards, security, and lack of accountability of their respective governments.

[00:16:37] And certainly in many African nations, as we said earlier, there is this discontent about living standards and so on. Um, which is leading to, you know, um, potentially leading to this vast number of coups that's been going on. Um, so it's, no, it's an interesting one there. And the last thing back to terrorism, obviously terrorist groups love unstable and failed states. It becomes kind of fertile ground for recruitment because terrorist groups typically stand in for failed governments.

[00:17:04] And they're able to provide resources such as food, water, and energy, um, whilst also creating a level of security with their hardline rule. And that typically, um, goes against inevitable rise in crime, such as looting and robberies and kidnappings and failed states. All we need to do is look at reports of locals who lived under ISIS in Mosul for 36 months and the way they controlled the area.

[00:17:26] And how a lot of people kind of tolerated ISIS just because ISIS brought in electricity and stuff and kept things kind of stable. So, um, you know, terrorist groups, um, are smart. You know, I think a lot of people misunderstand terrorist groups. They think they're just about blowing stuff up and all that. I think sometimes, you know, it's also about power grabs. It's about money. Um, yeah, especially with ISIS, they, they got a lot of money, um, from areas, from territories they took control of.

[00:17:54] So, you know, in Africa is, you know, rich in resources. And this is why superpowers, in a sense, want their influence. You know, America, China, and Russia definitely want to have a hand in what's going on in Africa because they're going to need access to uranium, diamonds, or whatever, you know, and other resources. Um, and so, you know, terrorist groups know all that as well. Um, and they can use that to their advantage.

[00:18:17] And if you make it a difficult place for Western companies or, or, you know, Russian or Chinese companies to do business, uh, it could, uh, bring, knock up the price of those, uh, minerals and resources. And, um, you know, and if, if the terrorist groups are kind of, uh, in control of that, they can make a lot of profit out of all that. So, uh, yeah. Yeah. And there's one, and one other interesting thing as well. I'll quickly go into an article from The Intercept.

[00:18:42] You know, uh, the point earlier about a lot of the soldiers who've been involved with these coups have been trained by, um, the US government in, uh, in the fight against terrorism. And, um, so this has sort of been a kind of growing pattern, um, that's been sort of picked up by The Intercept and in an article by a guy called Nick, uh, Terse. And, um, so the key points were, you know, one of the leaders behind Nigeria's recent coup and the head of Nigeria's special operation forces was trained by the US military.

[00:19:09] Since 2008, US military trained officers have been involved in 11 coups across West Africa. Um, and, uh, the US is, as you mentioned earlier, heavily invested in Nigeria with US taxpayers spending over 500 million in the country since 2012. Um, and that's also led to a significant increase in the presence of US military personnel in those countries growing from 100 to 1,016 within a decade. And obviously there's been establishment of US outposts such as drone bases, et cetera.

[00:19:40] Um, yeah. And obviously the focus of those efforts have been mainly counter-terrorism activities. Um, and, uh, you know, and experts have argued that the predominant issues igniting conflict in that region really is deeply rooted in poverty and historical colonial legacies, corruption in the government, um, and political and ethnic tensions.

[00:20:00] And, uh, so, yeah, so that, that, you know, it, with, uh, with that sort of training of these personnel, it kind of reminds me a little bit of the US's war on drugs efforts back from, uh, the 1970s onwards where the US was sort of training, um, you know, anti-cartel activities in places like Colombia and Mexico.

[00:20:20] And, and the thing is there was a bit of mission creep sometimes because, um, some of the cartels or groups they were fighting happened to be also left-wing groups, um, because they were using the drug business to kind of finance, um, their activities.

[00:20:34] And so, um, yeah, there's a very interesting, very sort of dark legacy from, you know, if you look at the sort of seventies through to maybe the early nineties with quite a few US backed military junters who, um, you know, were quite right-wing, um, almost fascist. And those groups were kind of attacking left-wing opposition groups like, uh, FARC and, uh, in Columbia, um, and groups like FARC were using the drug trafficking to finance their, um, activities.

[00:21:03] So yeah, it kind of gets a bit murky sometimes, um, when it comes to sort of training troops in, in places like Africa or South America and things, and it can lead to this sort of local mission creep, as I put it.

[00:21:16] Yeah. I mean, I, I think it's also, it's, it's worth looking at what the sort of three big foreign powers in the region, you know, what they want. I mean, I think Russia, I think is probably the most self-interested actor, you know, that, that, you know, like Wagner comes in and basically just provide security to these strong men, you know, bodyguards, props them up in exchange.

[00:21:41] Uh, they, you know, take over mines and kind of just extract these rare earth minerals to enrich themselves. I mean, that does absolutely nothing for the local population there whatsoever. The Chinese, they're interested in, in rare earth minerals and such to the same extent, but they also do tons of infrastructure development. Yes. Yeah, they do. They're very, yeah, very good at that.

[00:22:02] You know, like Nigeria, Sudan, Kenya, building up, um, completely new, uh, passenger rail, uh, infrastructure, you know? So they do do work there that, that benefits the local population to, to some extent. I mean, there's various debt schemes that kind of finance these projects that in the long run kind of fuck over these countries. Mm-hmm. I mean, that's broadly across all of China's development efforts across the world.

[00:22:29] Um, as far as the United States now, I mean, there's not, there's not a whole lot that we want out of the continent. I mean, our sort of interests for the last 20 years have essentially been counterterrorism and security efforts. Yeah. Well, there's one thing I find as well is a very disproportionate focus on American activities in Africa, whilst everybody seems to, and also historical legacies that are problematic, but people tend to forget the kind of current activities from China and stuff that are equally problematic in the region. Um, uh, yeah.

[00:22:59] Well, yeah. If you look at the activities of these, of, you know, like Russia or China in the, in the continent, you know, these are people, these are nations that I think, um, a lot would conventionally, many would conventionally understand, especially on the left to be seen as kind of anti-imperialist, but their actions are, I mean, I, I think you can make a big, make a good argument that Russia and China are the most imperialist countries in the world today, you know, when they just

[00:23:27] sort of go and just take and give back very little. I mean, they're sort of operating on the pushing forward, the kind of worst impulses of European colonial rule on the continent. Yeah. You know, um, I mean, even, even back during, back during the cold war with, with, with the Soviets and their activities in, in, in, in Africa, as far as like Angola and stuff. I mean, they were not operating from a place that, you know, we're going to come in and,

[00:23:54] you know, we're going to, uh, liberate the poor African proletariat to seize the means of production and unite, um, the continent under the bonds of socialist brotherhood. I mean, that was not their aims at all. You know, it was, it was, it was purely just extract, um, as much mineral resources, as much wealth as you possibly can from the continent and just bring it back home.

[00:24:19] You know, it was not, it was not charity that they were offering these countries and it's not charity that they're offering now. Yeah. Yeah. And I find it very interesting as well, like from a historical point of view, there's so little known about Russian activities in Africa and, um, and South America during the cold war. Yet we do talk a lot about American activities in Africa and, and, uh, central America, sorry, South America as well. Um, it comes up quite a lot actually.

[00:24:47] And I'm like, you know, I feel like, you know, I don't know, America was not alone in what was going on in, in, in the world order during that time. So yeah. Yeah. But, uh, but there we go. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And, um, one other point that kind of came up, I mean, you know, this summer, I think, you know, you've probably seen it as well. Climate change has come up as a big topic, um, because of increasing temperatures. We've had like big fires, especially in Greece, not where I was, but other parts of Greece had terrible fires and so on.

[00:25:15] And, and the one thing that keeps kind of getting in the back of my mind is, um, I think we are quickly approaching a huge, um, potential huge battles for resources in, in time. Um, and I think that could only get worse as climate change increases. I mean, I was just reading an article just yesterday about one of the big fears at the moment. The next pandemic may not focus on humans, but it might focus on, on crops. Um, and it could wipe out wheat or corn. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:25:45] And, and, and, and that, that would have a massively devastating effect on, on global, have a devastating effect on global food resources. And already the war in Ukraine has a huge effect on things, especially for Africa right now. Right. Or you have areas, swaths of the world where it's, would be just prohibitive for human beings to exist. You know? Yeah. Like it's too hot for people to live. Yeah. And we're going to get mass migration, which we kind of already have. Um, and we're not coping with it, especially in Europe.

[00:26:15] Um, you know, we, we, uh, governments are not coping with it. They're not coming up with strategies that, um, that really, uh, uh, humane. They kind of are just begrudgingly letting some people in, but doing everything they can to kind of deter people from coming over. But really in, in time, maybe in 10 or 20 years time, there'll be parts of the Middle East that we totally for certain parts of the year, you won't be able to exist in. Um, what happens then? I just don't know.

[00:26:41] And, and, and so, um, yeah, it's just interesting, isn't it? Nations, the idea of nation states might well become challenged in time because of the crises that we will be facing as a human species. And I think, um, and, and, you know, and I'm worried that I don't see a level of cooperation. I'm starting to see more and more selfish behavior. So, you know, Russia, China, and America are becoming even more divided, um, from each other. And, and obviously internally as well.

[00:27:10] Um, when we really need in an ideal world, America, Russia, and China to kind of come together and team up and come up with some policies that will, um, in a sense, save us all from the devastating effects of climate change. And, and, um, I don't, yeah, this is kind of jumping ahead a bit. I mean, we're going to talk about this in the, um, extra shot, but China's, uh, sort of security cooperation agreements that they're pushing with Fiji and the Solomon Islands and a lot of nations in the South Pacific.

[00:27:39] And I was reading that in, in preparation for this episode. And I thought, you know, they're going out of their way to develop these sort of security arrangements with these South Pacific countries that aren't going to exist in a couple of decades. Yeah. You know, like they're good. They're, they're, they're going to be underwater. And what are, yeah. And what are they going to benefit for that? That's the interesting. The country of Fiji may exist in spirit, but it won't be on that Island.

[00:28:05] It'll be somewhere in, in Australia that the Australian government, you know, allows Fiji to come in as refugees in mass, you know, and have a, have a territory like you would have like an Indian reservation here in the U S you know, that's what it's going to look like. It's not going to be that Island chain in the South Pacific. Yeah. Yeah. It'll be, yeah, it'll be reduced to being named a bar named after it, you know, the Fiji

[00:28:33] bar or something in Sydney or the last distant memory of this islands that existed. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I was, I've always got a bit of a soft spot for Fiji because about a year and a half ago, this podcast, um, was number one in, in, uh, political, I think it was news and political comment section on podcasting. Um, it was number one in Fiji. Um, and that for one week it was number one in Fiji. They always made me, I've always liked that.

[00:29:01] So I've got, as a signature of my email now, it's like we were once the number one podcast in Fiji, but there we go. So have a soft spot for Fiji. So I need to visit before, uh, before what you describe happens, um, which I hope doesn't happen, but it could. So I think we'll, we'll segue into, um, a very important story in recent weeks, which is the death of Wagner boss and failed mutineer, Yegevni Pregosian. Um, and it was an interesting piece from the conversation that segues quite nice is what we were just

[00:29:29] talking about here and it looks at his death through the lens of Putin's motives in Africa. So I'll, um, I'll kind of go into those key points and then I'll, I'll come back to you, Matt. And then there's another section we'll talk about as well, where Pregosian haunts us from the grave. So it's two interesting Pregosian bits here. Um, so obviously Yegevni Pregosian's assassination marks a pivotal moment in Russian-African relations. As the leader of the Wagner group, Pregosian played a crucial role in advancing Russian influence in Africa since 2017.

[00:29:58] The Wagner group comprised of multiple shell companies has been responsible for various destabilizing activities across Africa, including paramilitary operations, disinformation campaigns, and political interference. Pregosian had recently faced internal political challenges, including a power struggle with the Russian military, which hinted at his vulnerability. The Wagner group under Pregosian's leadership supported many African authoritarian leaders, increasing their dependence on Russia.

[00:30:28] Whilst the group's influence is vast and lucrative, Pregosian's death poses challenges for Russia. Maintaining the Wagner operations without Pregosian will require considerable effort, and given the complexities of its dealings in Africa. Furthermore, any direct involvement in Wagner operations by the Russian government will eliminate any plausible deniability, exposing Russia to greater scrutiny and a potential backlash

[00:30:54] for Wagner's controversial activities, which includes numerous human rights abuses. Wagner's influence is deeply entrenched in several African regimes, many of those which are reliant on Moscow's backing. However, Russia's declining value of Africa is becoming more evident. Actions such as Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal and the bombing of Ukrainian ports negatively affected Africa, revealing Russia's indifference to the continent's interests.

[00:31:23] This diminishing appeal is underscored by the decreased attendance of African heads of state at a recent Russian Africa summit. Furthermore, the circumstances surrounding Pregosian's death might also lead African leaders to reassess their associations with Russia, given the potential risks and uncertainties there. So Matt, before I come to you for your thoughts on all this, I have a question for you. Where were you when you first heard about Pregosian's death? I was at home.

[00:31:53] I forget what I was doing, but I was doing something completely unrelated, and then just sort of saw on my phone Pregosian killed in a plane crash and did a double take on it that I was like, oh shit. And then I think I immediately sent it to you. Yeah. Yeah. I think there was a minute there that I was like, should we hop on and record something real quick? But I know we're off and we're not CNN. And like, I don't know.

[00:32:23] But really just, I mean, it's something that like, you kind of knew it was coming, but to actually see it happen and to happen in that way is not what I would have expected. Yeah. No, no. Well, yeah, it was, I call it a contra zoom moment. And what I mean by that, for people who don't know what a contra zoom is. So contra zoom is where the camera says Jaws. Do you remember that scene in Jaws where Roy Scheider's on the beach and he's relaxing?

[00:32:51] And then suddenly somebody, I don't know, screaming in terror because there's a shark and he stands up and the camera does this weird effect where it's moving out. It's moving physically backwards, but zooming in. It kind of does this effect where the background changes. And so for me, every time I have a bit of shocking information that I come across, I could have in my head, imagine a contra zoom happening. So I call it a contra zoom moment. And literally I'd just come out of this 50th anniversary screening of the film Serpico, which I'd been enjoying as part of my holiday.

[00:33:21] And I think that's where I got your text. I was in central London and I was like, like you, I was just very tempted to cut my holidays short and jump back on the air of a special, but I'd kind of felt to myself, I didn't really want Putin to ruin my holiday. He's already done enough damage. Well, the situation was so, it was so fluid. I mean, there wasn't really a lot that we knew. No, no, exactly. And it's still, it's still a bit of murkiness around it. I mean, there's all sorts of conflicting reports of what may have downed his plane.

[00:33:48] I mean, I read one thing somewhere where apparently there was a guy who was wanting to buy the plane and had a very extensive look around it. Then there was somebody else who was related to one of the stewardesses who died on the plane. Because it wasn't just the Wagner employees who died on the plane or bosses. It was also this, you know, the poor cabin crew and the pilots who, you know, who died. And apparently one of the stewardesses had mentioned that some engineers had been, you know,

[00:34:17] going around the plane prior to takeoff, which was apparently unusual. And then there was also talk of like a missile hit the plane, which to me then had echoes of MH17. And I thought there's some kind of interesting poetic something there. But yeah. So Matt, I mean, sorry, I'm banging on a bit. What are your thoughts on Prokoja and his death and his role in Putin's agenda in Africa? I think, well, in general, just speaking about his death as a whole,

[00:34:46] I think the manner in which it was done is very important. Yeah. As, you know, the most, by far the most public, blatant assassination that he's, that Putin has done. First one that I'm pretty sure, the first one that I'm aware of that's someone directly kind of in his inner circle.

[00:35:10] You know, I mean, the various other assassinations have been defectors, political dissidents, people that were criticizing him. I mean, yeah, Prigo's in the launch of mutiny and was marching on the Kremlin, but was still kind of in his inner circle, a stressor to the right of him. But we wouldn't call him opposition, really.

[00:35:28] But that so of a public way to get rid of him, I think it just demonstrates a message to the rest of the Russian elite that like, if you try and you miss, this is what happens to you.

[00:35:47] You know, and I think, I don't know if I was talking to you about this on the day of or someone else, but basically said, you know, in a kind of grim way, I think this is a good thing that he's gone. I mean, I remember saying when we talked right after the mutiny that I think there was a desire of people in the West to see, you know, someone marching on Putin, openly opposing him and the chaos and stuff that incites,

[00:36:14] oh, he's weaker now that that's a good thing. And like, it's, it's not, you don't want these different sort of competing polls groups within Russia, um, fighting it out, you know, in a country with thousands of nuclear weapons, it's just not something that you want. And I think that frankly, someone like Prigozian who complete fucking sociopath. Oh yeah.

[00:36:49] Yeah. Because Wagner was Hitler's favorite composer. Like this is not subtle. No.

[00:37:15] As to who these people were, you know, and to have this man being a complete chaos agent with a fair degree of popular support. Oh yeah. Across the country. I mean, Russian public opinion is kind of impossible to gauge right now, but safe to say he had a large and still does has a large degree of popular support. That man running across the country, just inciting chaos and instability is not good, you know?

[00:37:41] And ultimately, yeah, I think it's, it's by and large, a, a net positive that he is gone. Yeah. Um, yeah. As far as Africa, I sort of forget where we were going with that. Yeah. No, don't worry. I mean, well, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I think I'm, I'm with you. I mean, I think the question of Putin's future, I think is an interesting one because I'm 50, 50 on this.

[00:38:04] You know, you could argue like you have that Putin has solidified his power by killing Prigozian and would put off any would-be pluses waiting in the wings. And Putin, like Stalin, I think you put it this way, like Stalin, would die in office and there'll be a scramble worthy of a follow-up film by Armando Yananucci. So it'd be the death of Putin rather than the death of Stalin this time. And that's the thing.

[00:38:28] So with that scenario, will the death of Putin lead to that very instability you would talk about with different factions? Because Putin's now, you know, hasn't really created a legacy that's obvious. Maybe he has. Maybe there is some succession plan, but I don't see it. You know, so when Putin does eventually die, if he dies in office and all that, then there still could be that horrible power grab with nuclear weapons all over the place later on. But back to Putin's future for a moment.

[00:38:56] I think also the other side of my 50-50 is he might have overplayed his hand by killing Prigozian. And, you know, because Prigozian, as you mentioned, had this very popular following. You know, with that mutiny, I think, quite frankly, had Prigozian been more ambitious, it could be he who's in the Kremlin right now and Putin six feet under. And I'm wondering... I think he could have done it. Yeah, I think he could have done it. I don't think he really... I don't think it was his intention, but I think he could have done it.

[00:39:24] And probably his final thoughts on the plane as it was tumbling were, fuck, I should have gone into Russia. Sorry, gone into Moscow, you know. I should have done it. God damn it. And obviously with his own people within the Wagner group. And the Wagner group have just been saying are definitely embedded in Russian operations in Africa, Syria and other places.

[00:39:50] And they played a vital role because Wagner's sort of become this deniable version of Russian special forces. They're probably better trained than even Spetsnaz, you know. And so I think this kind of puts Putin in a slightly awkward position. So obviously the Ministry of Defense, well, the Russian Ministry of Defense, I can't remember what they call it now, but they have sort of taken official control of Wagner. But the thing is, you might take official control, but you might not have... They're in the GRU. That's it. Yeah. And they might...

[00:40:19] But they might not have the loyalty. And if you just killed off the most popular man in the Wagner group, surely that's going to piss someone off. And when you've got a lot of people who've got a very good set of skills, in Liam Neeson terms, with a lot of weapons, I don't know. Does that make Putin weaker? I'm not sure. It's so 50-50 because, as you're saying, Putin has sent this message. He does kill his opponents. I mean, he killed Boris Nemstov.

[00:40:47] He got him shot right outside the freaking Kremlin, for crying out loud. You know? Yeah. And so Putin will kill. And I will say, as well, there are some people out there still who are like, kind of, you know, they've suddenly got all these sort of doubts about, oh, maybe Putin didn't do it, and all this sort of stuff. And for me, frankly, with all the murders I've seen connected to Putin, I'm kind of putting he's guilty until proven innocent, frankly. You know?

[00:41:15] And there are people out there who still think you can do deals with Putin and all that sort of stuff. And you can't. You know, Putin is a figure, a self-created figure from a Mario Puzo novel. You know? I think he's probably read way too much of The Godfather. He's a bit like there was a comedy character in a TV show years ago in England about this guy who lived in a block of flats in London who thought he was The Godfather. And so he just acted like The Godfather, but didn't really have the clout of The Godfather. So Putin's a bit like that.

[00:41:45] But, you know, he's a very dangerous man and ruthless and duplicitous. And I just don't think, I think from a political point of view, it's very difficult to know how to deal with him next and to just take this sort of attitude of, you know, as I call it, this early 90s attitude of, you know, the Cold War's over and, oh, Putin may not have done it. Oh, you know, maybe we could do a deal with Putin. Bullshit. You can't. The man is ruthless. Yeah.

[00:42:14] Well, touching back to Putin's succession quickly, I think if he dies in office, and I still think the most likely outcome for him is he dies in office at some point in the future, years from now. If and when that happens, and there's no succession plan in place, that's a problem. And you do have the, you know, serious risk of internal kind of infighting happen.

[00:42:46] Yeah. You have a succession plan in place. The issue with, I think, him putting a succession plan in place to do so would be to tacitly admit that he is mortal. Mm. And that his reign will not endure for all time. Yeah. And all Fulteran leaders don't like that. Right. And once you name a successor, that name successor has a fair bit of clout. Mm-hmm. You know? And you have to ensure that that name successor has, you know, the clout and the political backing

[00:43:13] and most importantly, the firepower to ensure that they are actually able to hold on to the Kremlin after Putin is gone. And in order to do that, you imbue that designated successor with a fair degree of power second only to your own. Mm-hmm. And that inherently creates a threat to Putin while he's still in office. Mm-hmm. It's a really hard thing to do in that situation.

[00:43:37] And if you are Putin and you're completely self-interested in your own rule and your own power over this country and, you know, taking 50% of all the oligarchs, profits and everything. Mm-hmm. Once you're gone, do you really care? Mm-hmm. What happens to the country? Yeah. It's not your problem anymore. No. You know?

[00:43:58] If you're totally self-interested in me and my wealth and my massive mansion on the Black Sea and the stripper poles in the basement and, you know, the armored trains and shit, once you're gone, who cares? Yeah. You can't take your toys with you as far as we know. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. But as far as Wagner now, I think it's unclear.

[00:44:25] I mean, yeah, he's, I think Prigozian enjoyed a lot of popularity in Russia and certainly still does. Mm-hmm. The extent to which that would prohibit his fighters from following the Ministry of Defense, if they are put under Ministry of Defense control, I'm not sure.

[00:44:47] I think, you know, there's, I think the sort of prevailing belief among Russians is who's going to pay me? Mm-hmm. You know? Who's going to help me provide for my family? Mm-hmm. Um, I think a lot of these people aren't ideological at all. No. By and large. I think the mutiny is very much proven. There's very little loyalty or anything, really. It's all about who's going to provide for you. And I think, you know, there was somebody quoted as that, wasn't there?

[00:45:17] Yeah. And if the Ministry of Defense is going to do that, then okay. I mean, there's an irony in so far that Prigozian's mutiny was largely instigated because they wanted Wagner forces to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense. Mm-hmm.

[00:45:33] Um, as far as their activities in Africa, if the GRU or some other branch of the Ministry of Defense openly sort of absorbs Wagner forces, um, takes over these operations in Africa. One, I mean, it's a, it's a huge sort of corporate transnational enterprise. It's not just, it's not just guys with guns on the ground.

[00:45:58] You know, there's mines and there's various corporate entities and there's, you know, this whole, uh, propaganda network. Um, it's a, it's a kind of a vast, um, network of companies to sort of control.

[00:46:14] Um, but at the same point, you know, as you sort of said, if, if the Russian Ministry of Defense kind of openly takes us over, like, okay, do we now have, um, Russian troops openly occupying these sections of, um, central and Northern Africa? Yeah. Would the Russians care or would they just come out and say, yeah, we, we are. Mm-hmm. So, uh. Well, it's interesting.

[00:46:38] After the mutiny, it was the first time the Russian government formally admitted that the Wagner group was, uh, an entity of theirs. Um, because prior to that, there'd always been this, oh, no, no, of course not. You know, um, you know, it's, it's, it's crazy really. The plausible deniability and how pathetic it is really. Private, private military companies are officially illegal in Russia. Mm. Um, they're officially outlawed. They're not supposed to exist, but, you know, everyone does.

[00:47:06] A lot of the oligarchs kind of have their own Gazprom. The state-owned natural gas, uh, conglomerate has one. Um, even I think Prigozin would, would sue journalists for a long time who was sort of. Well, Bellingcat. That he was the leader of the, yeah. Bellingcat. I mean, the British government allowed Wagner to sue Bellingcat, even with the sanctions against Russia. Um. Absolutely shameful. I mean, yeah.

[00:47:30] And only now, um, is it the US government and the British government are now formally going to label the Wagner group a terrorist group? Only now. Um, and, um, you know, it's a bit too little too late, really. Yeah. The fact that journalists have been sued over it is, yeah, shameful. It's absolutely outrageous. Yeah.

[00:47:52] And the fact that the British government allowed that, um, you know, Russian oligarchs have been doing that and getting away with it for some time now, using the British court system to their advantage. And so, yeah.

[00:48:02] Well, to that point, um, with Wagner being a designated terrorist group, if you have these African states openly sort of cooperating with the Wagner group, um, having them run, you know, various corporate enterprises in their countries and stuff, that then complicates their exposure under international law. Yeah. I mean, they could open yourselves up to US sanctions, cut them off from the dollar. Mm.

[00:48:29] Um, you know, and then you kind of have your, the choice to make, do I want to keep these, you know, Russian goons stripping my natural resources dry in exchange for their, you know, protection? Or do I want to be able to access the international banking system? Mm. Mm. No, indeed. Indeed. Well, one quick, um, last piece on Progozian. Um, so he still haunts us from the grave of his troll farms.

[00:48:57] As you mentioned earlier, the Wagner group's not just this military or paramilitary organization. It owns lots of things. The Internet Research Agency, which is a Russian troll farm, and was involved in meddling in the 2016 US elections, Brexit, and various other things. Mm-hmm. Basically, they, they still seem to be, the Internet Research Agency still seems to be active.

[00:49:16] And following Progozian's death, pro-Progozian accounts on the social media platform, formerly known as Twitter, now known as X, which is the, uh, how we mention Twitter's name these days, um, continued promoting. So on, on Twitter, uh, these pro-Progozian accounts continued, uh, promoting positive narratives about him, uh, with claims that the Wagner group, which he led, would remain active in Africa. Uh, and even conspiracy theories emerged that Progozian might still be alive or blaming the West for the plane crash. You know, classic.

[00:49:46] Um, you know, and, and I'm surprised that they didn't talk about the proximity of the plane to Porton Down or something. Um, you know, which is the kind of classics of the stuff. Um, you know, somehow Britain's responsible for it. Um, so, you know, it was a, uh, a rocket strain of COVID from Porton Down that took out the plane or something. Um, anyway, and, uh, there's an anonymous group called Antibot for Navalny, which is dedicating to tracking Russian language influence operations on X or Twitter.

[00:50:15] Um, and they identified a series of coordinated accounts pushing a positive narrative about Progozian. And this suggests that he might have actually retained control over the incident research agency, uh, until his death. Um, and the investigations have resulted in the removal of thousands of suspected, uh, accounts from social media platforms. Uh, and they've also observed patterns in trial activities, including replies to tweets about Russia and Ukraine.

[00:50:42] Russian disinformation strategies have evolved since the incident research agency's interference in 2016. Current tactics involve a mix of state-backed media, large telegram channels, and regular social media posts. And despite countermeasures, Russian disinformation continues to have a significant impact online. For instance, pro-Kremlin telegram channels have seen a substantial growth in subscribers since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

[00:51:09] Uh, the nature of Russian propaganda dissemination is shifting towards a decentralized approach, relying more on proxies and sympathetic Western influencers. And in fact, there was quite an interesting article in the BBC about Western influencers who have been, uh, parroting, uh, Kremlin talking points and so on. Um, you know, sort of seems to be sort of the usual suspects and things and people who used to appear on Russia today. Uh, Matt, do you have any thoughts on, on the kind of internet research agency side of things?

[00:51:39] I think it largely falls under the same kind of complications that, that Wagner faces post, post pre-Gosan. I mean, I think one of the big, one of the things that made this troll farm so dangerous in 2016 during, you know, our elections and, and under Brexit is that people didn't really know that it existed or, you know, it wasn't, it wasn't. Largely known that it existed. I mean, yeah, sure. There's a bunch of researchers and stuff all over the internet and stuff, academics who were, who were calling us out.

[00:52:08] It was known to, you know, the intelligence services and stuff. But by and large, I think these troll networks were so effective because the public that were consuming it wasn't necessarily, um, inoculated against it, you know? And it was also very well catered some of it as well. People forget that in these, um, troll farms, there are literally, it's like, uh, you know, if you think of it like a big office, there are dedicated, um, areas of the office that focus on different countries.

[00:52:36] And within that area in the office, there are dedicated desks to different states or cities within the U S for example. And then those individuals, their task in their daily operation is to understand the culture of the country that they're, and even the city or area they're focusing on and look for the kind of niggles, the difficult, the points of contention and find strategies of ways to exaggerate those points of tension. Yeah.

[00:53:02] Um, I think it's just helpful in general that the public is sort of aware that these actors are out there. I mean, I still think I've said this before on here that I think media literacy is just absolute shit. Yeah. Um, massively, massively. Yeah. Like, uh, I've been like, we were talking about before we started recording. There's that, uh, fugitive near me in Pennsylvania who's on the loose. I've been like obsessively following it. He's not near me, but I just find it interesting.

[00:53:29] Um, and seeing some of the, some of the tweets that people are saying about it, just the. Dumbiest dumbest things that you could possibly imagine. Like this sort of willingness of people to be like, I have no idea what's happening here. Like there's a lot that we don't know about the situation. Therefore I'll invent the most broke complicated explanation for it possible and say that that's definitely, wasn't it? That's definitely what it is.

[00:53:58] You know, like there's some weird thing up in the sky that I don't know what it is. Therefore it must be a spacecraft from an intergalactic species that's here. Yeah. No, you don't know what it is. Because you don't know what it is. Doesn't mean it's the most complicated explanation for it. Period. Um, I don't know. I think to the extent that you will see interference. Yeah. To the extent that you will see that interference in, in our elections going forward.

[00:54:26] I think, um, it'll be, it'll be stuff along the lines of, of, of AI. It won't be exactly sort of like what we saw in, in 2016. Um, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Be interested to see whether Pregosian's death does have an effect on those, uh, troll farms or not. Um, who knows, you know, it may have a negative effect or a positive effect. I don't know. Cause I think, you know, as we'll talk about in a, in an extra shot, there are obviously concerns about the U S elections at the moment.

[00:54:53] It feels like, uh, I don't know if it just feels like a knife edge again. Um, and I, I think it's definitely, I think, you know, we've said this before. Putin's definitely wanting to hold out in the war on Ukraine as long as possible to see what the results of the U S election will be. Because I think he's in the belief that if it's Trump or someone with Trump's ideology that seems to be very pro Russia because Trump, sorry, because Russia promotes itself as this sort of, um, the savior of the white Christian world and presents itself as sort

[00:55:23] of anti-woke, um, which, you know, is this sort of a woke hysteria going on. Still on the internet and on right wing circles. So, you know, um, Putin wants somebody who thinks like that to win the next U S presidential election, because then they're most likely to benefit Putin. And I can imagine there's going to be, I think Putin probably believes his political future probably hangs in the, um, in the balance with those troll farms. I think, you know, we're going to see an awful lot of stuff. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:55:52] I think it does. Hmm. Um, so it's, uh, yeah. Worrying, worrying. So I don't know. I mean, Putin's I've never seen Putin as stupid. I don't think he will blow progression out the sky without thinking it through. Yeah. Considering it took him a few months to, since the mutiny, um, he's not being quick about it. I don't think he's stupid. I think he's misinformed and he's ill informed. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's gotten to a place where he's so isolated that he, he got high on his own

[00:56:21] supply and he earnestly began to believe his own propaganda, which I mean, has been his downfall in Ukraine. That he honestly believed that, you know, there's some banderite fake idea of a country that would just immediately implode. Um, the minute his paratroopers dropped down onto cave and that didn't happen. Yeah. Yeah. We create a situation where frankly, if anybody doesn't say what he likes to hear, they're going to get in trouble. Um, you know, that's a problem for anybody.

[00:56:52] Yeah, it is. Yeah. Yeah. They, you know, um, I think somewhere once somebody said that about the George Lucas prequels of star Wars, that George Lucas is surrounded by too many yes men, which led to some very poor creative choices, but I'll leave audiences to decide whether that's true or not. But, uh, um, we've got one final story for me on to extra shots. Um, so let's go for it quickly. Um, and it's all about this, uh, Russian helicopter crew.

[00:57:21] Well, not the crew, but the pilot who defected to Ukraine. Um, and I'll summarize this sort of great article that's from the drives war zone by Howard Altman. So in a nutshell, a Russian helicopter pilot named Maxim Kuzminov, Kuzminov defected from Russia to Ukraine on August 9th, um, after a secret six month plan with Ukrainian intelligence services. Uh, the helicopter landed at a prearranged site in Ukrainian territory and Russian forces reacted by trying to shoot down the helicopter.

[00:57:51] On top of that, the two additional crew members had no idea of the plot. And when the helicopter landed, they tried to resist Ukrainian forces during the defection. Um, the mill MI8 helicopter was fired upon and Kuzminov, the pilot was wounded upon reaching Ukraine. Kuzminov claimed safety and he got a monetary reward and a new identification for him and his family.

[00:58:42] Um, this action followed Kuzminov's disagreement with the war apparently. He was influenced by the, uh, Ukrainians GUR telegram channel and began communicating with the Ukrainian defense intelligence directorate on telegram. And apparently Ukraine's parliament passed a law a few months ago, um, offering rewards to Russians defecting with equipment. And so Kuzminov, um, his rewards would have been something in the region of $500,000, but the exact amount has not been mentioned.

[00:59:11] Now, $500,000 for a mill MI8 helicopter is actually pretty cheap because those helicopters on the market, uh, I did a quick Google to see what they cost and apparently they're $8.5 million. So $500,000 for an $8.5 million helicopter is pretty good going actually. Um, uh, cause I know there's a lot of criticism at the moment about how Ukraine are perceived as spending money, um, and stuff. There was some, uh, debate about the choice of pistols that, um, uh, Zelensky's bodyguards

[00:59:41] were using cause they were like $4,000 each or something. So, so it was also, well, they were these, um, Oh God, I can't remember the make right now, but they were these sort of custom kind of competition pistols that look like an alien and they're supposed to have a, um, a very, uh, low recoil because of the, I think the barrels fixed or something like that. Um, so it is a very specialist pistol and it did cross my mind of whether or not, um,

[01:00:08] a target pistol is a good idea in combat because at least something like a Glock or a six hour is very well tested and being used by the security services around the world. All over the world forever. The Glock is kind of the gold standard. I mean, the U S secret service have now moved to Glock from six hour. Um, so you would have thought Zelensky's bodyguards would have followed suit with that, but instead they're using this very advanced pistol. There's about $4,000. Um, I'll, I'll get the make of it and bring that up an extra shot in a minute.

[01:00:36] Um, so, uh, back to the MA, MA helicopter. So obviously the pre-captured helicopter provides Ukraine with potential intelligence value about the enemy's communication, um, and security system. And the event has been an embarrassment for the Russian air force. But the thing is the fate of the additional crew members is the murky bit of all this because, um, they were killed trying to resist the Ukrainians.

[01:01:02] Um, now I don't think the Ukrainians killed them in, um, cold blood or anything like that, but it's kind of a bit unfair on the defecting pilot to steal a helicopter, two crew members. Um, and then they get killed by the end of it. Um, it's not quite what happened in the hunt for October. At least they faked a, uh, a nuclear crisis that caused the crew to, um, get out. But, uh, I don't know. I mean, obviously defecting with a helicopter is not exactly an easy thing to do.

[01:01:28] Um, and if it would arouse suspicion that you didn't have your crew with you, um, or if you try and recruit your crew, you, you know, put yourself more at risk with this defection. But it's the bit that strikes me as a little bit murky and makes me feel a bit, um, uneasy about it. But that's the world of intelligence, isn't it? So Matt, do you have any thoughts on this? I, I, I felt that too about the crew. So, I mean, this pilot was the only one who should have had this arrangement with the Ukrainian GUR.

[01:01:57] They got, the Ukrainians got his family out of Russia to Ukraine before this happened. So his family was pretty amazing actually. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Very impressive. Um, and also just sort of classic spy stuff really. Um, so yeah, they got his family out ahead of time and then he, you know, brought the helicopter over.

[01:02:21] And I think it was, I mean, the, the MIA, that airframe has been an operation all around the world since like the eighties, you know? So I think it's real intelligence value is in the electronics. There's some, uh, pretty sophisticated countermeasures, um, electronic countermeasure systems that were on there that would certainly be of interest. Um, I would guess the, uh, encryption modules on the radios would be very valuable.

[01:02:47] Um, and it was also carrying spare parts for, um, two models of, uh, Sukhoi, uh, Russian, um, fighter aircraft. Um, so that's of interest in our, uh, our national air and space, uh, intelligence center, I'm sure, um, is all over that probably actually physically has that equipment. Um, and is, uh, like reverse engineering it, um, to understand how it, how it functions.

[01:03:15] But yeah, so this helicopter landed and then, I mean, it's reported in this story here that the other two crew members who had no idea of any of this, um, you know, tried to run away or weren't, or weren't about this operation at all. And, um, it says in a kind of roundabout way, but the Ukrainians killed them because they didn't want to defect.

[01:03:37] Um, and yeah, it is kind of, I mean, the pilot had his family out of the country, like already safe when he did this, the other crew members didn't, you know, they still had family back in Russia. So the, they were, they were not making decisions on the same level playing field. Like they just weren't, you know? Well, he was in a sense playing God with them, wasn't he? In a way.

[01:04:05] I mean, it is, to put it sort of very cruelly, it's, it's, yeah. How do you, this is the interesting side of sparring, isn't it? When you have to betray your colleagues. Um, and I get, I get his political conviction because Russia is doing appalling things at the moment. Um, and obviously these, these poor, uh, crew members are in the world. They're basically going to be a footnote in a, you know, Russia's terrible recent history in Ukraine, uh, with the hundreds of thousands of people they've killed or could kill.

[01:04:32] Um, but at the same time, I don't know, it's something that makes me feel a bit uneasy about that, but you know, that's probably why I'm not an intelligence officer. I mean, yeah, I think if, if, if you're, I mean, ultimately, if you see this operation as a net positive, which I do, you're still able to feel kind of uneasy about the details as far as these other crew members were concerned. I mean, anyone who's not a sociopath, I think probably will.

[01:05:01] Um, and you're right to feel that way. Even if you're listening to this and you hear these details and you're like, oh, that's kind of messy. You're, you're right to feel that way. But I mean, I think this is also a perfect way to illustrate the messiness of the intelligence business and the messiness of the reality of war. You know? Yeah. I mean, that's, that's the business. That's the business. It is.

[01:05:26] Uh, I, I think something that's interesting to me is that the Ukrainians seem to see this operation as a more valuable in terms of its propaganda. Um, I mean, they, they had a press conference with this guy and named him and showed his picture and, and gave a fair amount of details on how this went down, you know? So they, they clearly see that, that putting this out there, um, is probably of greater

[01:05:53] value to them than the electronics of the spare parts on, on the helicopter. Um, I wonder then though, this guy, this pilot has a target on his back for the rest of his life. Yeah. You know, you've seen what the Russians do. You've seen what the Russians do to defectors. I mean, Putin has said in interviews before, like, what's the one thing you can't forgive?

[01:06:22] And he said betrayal. He better grow a beard fast, don't he? Seriously. And especially in Ukraine, the Russians can reach out and touch you. Yeah. That, that's something that, that is a, is a concern of mine that I wonder if this guy really thought through the risk that he's going to be living under for the rest of his life. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe he hopes the risk is diminished if Putin's defeated. Maybe that was his thinking. I don't know.

[01:06:49] I mean, I would think whoever, whoever would replace Putin is not going to be like, oh, it's fine. You know? Warm and fuzzy. No. And I, I, I wonder if it would have been better for them to not so publicly put out who this guy, what his name is that we have his parents in Ukraine. Here's his picture. If it would have been better to, to have the stage, some sort of thing that made it look

[01:07:19] like, you know, he tried to defect and the Ukrainians shot it down and he's killed, you know, and he can live under an assumed identity somewhere. Like the Humphreau of October where they pretended to have sunk the submarine. Yeah. Yeah. If that, I wonder if that would have been wiser than like putting this guy on television. I think this is the thing with Ukraine, isn't it? Because they want the PR value of it. They want to be seen to be doing stuff because there's been obviously a lot of negative criticism

[01:07:48] in the Western press about Ukraine's progress. And I think because they're concerned about, you know, diminishing Western support and stuff. And I think they need to be seen as doing things. Also, I suppose they want to encourage other defectors too. You know, this guy is the poster boy with 500 grand or more plus your family relocated somewhere nice. Maybe for some individuals who are sitting with a tank or helicopter, who could do with the money? Maybe they might think it might be worth it.

[01:08:18] I don't know. This is controversial, but I'll say it. I wonder if how much the Ukrainians see this value as purely as a propaganda tool, you know, and how much if they care about that a great degree more than they care about this guy as a human being who they put in a tremendous amount of risk by doing this. 500 grand isn't a lot of money. I mean, obviously they haven't disclosed how much they gave him, but I can't imagine

[01:08:48] they would have given more than a million. And if you just relocate to him and his entire family, it's going to be expensive. 500 grand can get you pretty far in Ukraine. I suppose. Yeah. Yeah. Not in London. Or here. Yeah. No, that's like a, that's a, that's a. My price is five million upwards. That's a fun night out in central London. Yeah. I really wonder how much they actually care about this guy and his safety or they, you know,

[01:09:17] they wanted their photo op and they got it. I question that. It's a, it's a bit like, do you remember that Michael Weiss article we spoke about maybe in the last episode where he was quite bold in saying about how he spoke to people in like the GRU and various other things. And I was like, why, why would you say that? Because surely if, I mean, for example, if you say I spoke to the accountant of the GRU,

[01:09:42] that narrows it down to 10 people, you know, um, why would you put your, any source at risk like that? Um, and it just, it's bothered me. It still sticks with me as why I'm always interested by that. And certainly with the Ukrainians for them, it is more about the propaganda victory. I think than it is about necessarily the individual's safety. I think. I think, I think the Ukrainians, especially in their GUR and their military intelligence, I think they are some ruthless SOBs. And they have to be. Yeah. They have to be.

[01:10:11] And it's, it's very much a zero sum game. I think they got their, you know what? Yeah. I think they got their propaganda victory. They put him out there. And if in a couple of years from now, you know, this guy gets a face full of Novichok, I don't think they give a shit. And I wonder if this guy knows that. Yeah, maybe. I don't know. But, um, you know, I can understand that ruthlessness because Ukraine is in a fight for its survival. Um, so I don't want any listeners out there thinking that my, um, you know, uh, my, my

[01:10:40] feelings about Ukraine are wavering because they're not of anything. I think I feel like, um, I've become even more pro Ukrainian in the last few months of watching stuff. Um, and feeling like we need to find a way to do more. And like the fact that the F-16 thing is only just starting to happen in September and so on. Everything's taking so long. Um, and I think that, you know, I feel like Ukraine need to have a significant victory before the U S elections, because I do fear for the future of Ukraine, um, especially if Trump gets in.

[01:11:09] So, uh, but anyway, we will, we will probably wrap up there just a quick, um, uh, note. So the pistol that was, I mentioned earlier, which is known as the, um, somebody called it a super Gucci alien pistol in use with Zelensky security detail. So it's called the Laugo arms alien, and it's a nine millimeter pistol. Uh, I believe it holds 18 rounds. Um, I've been trying to read the technical gist of it whilst you were chatting, but I

[01:11:38] haven't really succeeded in that, but I believe it has some sort of, um, low bore axis that makes it very accurate. So with repeat shooting, you don't get too much muzzle rise. And I think it's because the, uh, it's either the barrel is fixed or an aspect of the slide is fixed. I can't remember which way around it is. Um, it looks cool. Yeah. So, but I, it does, it does. It's quite new. Yeah. That's the thing.

[01:12:05] I think if you're in close, if you're in a close protection detail and a Glock is good enough for the secret service, it's good enough for you. Yeah. Well, this is it. This is it. I mean, it might be accurate, but I think, I mean, we don't know, um, that individual who was carrying the pistol. It might be a personal pistol. It's not necessarily the, the, um, us taxpayers money is paid for this $4,000 pistol. Um, but the reason I brought it up is because there's been over the last few months, I've

[01:12:32] seen a lot of, um, articles from various outlets where people are questioning the way Ukraine's using the money. Uh, and to be honest, I don't think any of us really know. Um, and I, and I leave it to the Ukrainians to decide how they best spend their money because they're the ones fighting for their lives right now. Um, so if they feel the super alien Gucci pistols, the way to go, then go, go for it. So, so there we go. So, um, we're going to move on to extra shop, which is on Patreon. So if you want to join us, please do.

[01:13:01] Um, you just need to go to patreon.com forward slash secrets and spies, pick a subscription level that works for you. Uh, and you'll either get a set of coasters or a free cup and you'll be able to hear us on extra shot and also previous episodes. So, um, for, yeah, so we will see you over there for those who are not coming with us. Thank you so much for listening. And we look forward to catching you on the next espresso martini. Bye guys.

[01:13:31] Thanks for listening. This is secrets and spies.